Flop Betting Strategy

The result of many deals is determined by the flop betting round. The addition of three new cards at once makes enormous changes in the evaluation of a hand. Two black aces are destroyed when the flop comes Q J 9. The worst hand in poker, 7-2 offsuit, becomes the nearly unbeatable nuts by the arrival of trip deuces or trip sevens on the flop. Of course, this radical increase and decrease in value given in my examples is quite rare, but the fact that hand values can easily change by hitting or missing the flop is an intrinsical part of Texas hold’em. A good poker player will adjust to this big change in hand values. A weak poker player can easily lose a big pot by being too inflexible.

There is a huge difference in whether or not a pot has been raised preflop. Most big pots and large chip swings come from raised pots. I like to think of the preflop betting in a raised pot as a dialogue. The raiser says, “I have the best prospects right now,” by raising. After the flop comes down, the raiser offers his opinion by a probing bet (the continuation bet), which says, “if you did not improve, I still have you beat.” Of course, the number of preflop callers influences the betting, and so does the texture of the flop. But my point is that the raiser usually bets the flop.

If you flop a big hand such as a set in a three-way raised pot, most of the time, I suggest that you follow this betting strategy. If the raiser is on your immediate left and you are acting first, check the flop. Let the raiser bet through the third player and then decide what strategy to use, depending on whether the third player folds, calls, or raises. This same formula works fine no matter whether there is only one other player besides the preflop raiser or more than one other person. Acting last is valuable.

However, if the raiser is on your immediate right and you act first, bet through the third player or the field and use the preflop raiser as a backstop. You can also do this when you have a moderately decent hand that may or may not be the best. If you do not bet, there are two ways where you may lose out.

First, the field may check to the raiser and the raiser may decide that it is too risky to bet. In that event, the whole field gets a free card, which is highly detrimental to your interests. You can lose out when someone improves to beat you, and you can lose out when someone picks up a draw, making a drawing hand that could win the pot at the river. A free card also hurts you by making the hands more difficult to read. Did your opponent make a second pair or did he hit a gutshot? This is not the spot you want to be in when holding a set.

Second, you are not even well-placed after you and the others check and the raiser does decide to bet. The bet comes through you and the whole field is behind you. It is easy for someone to have a good hand and check the flop. This happens a lot in raised pots. Someone with a biggie checks and the raiser then bets the flop. When the raiser bets through you, a lot of bad things can happen. You raise and knock someone out that was going to donate to your stack. Worse, if it looks like he has you beat, you are committing a lot of chips before finding out that another big hand is out. So my tendency is to bet when I have good or great hand and the raiser is on my right. It does not have to be a big bet, just enough to get the lay of the land.

Some players shy away from betting when they flop a big hand. I think the main reason is they want to make a little money whenever they hold something good. Going for a check-raise may be reasonable when you have a stack so small that you can raise all-in without betting more than the size of the pot. When playing deep-stack poker, most of the time a check-raise gives the show away. You will not get raised, or even called, unless the opponent also has a big hand. When your goal is to double through the opponent, you have a better chance of achieving your aim if you do not have a “power point” where it becomes unmistakable to all that you are loaded for bear.

Let me illustrate the two strategies when you have a fine hand such as a set. The first betting sequence contains a “power point,” a place in the betting where you make a check-raise which shows your true colors, and the second sequence leaves it blurry whether or not you have a big hand. Suppose you are in a no-limit game with $5-$10 blinds. You are in the blind with pocket nines. A player limps in late position and the button raises to $40 total. You decide to call the raise and the limper also calls. There is $125 in the pot when the flop of Q 9 5 is delivered. You check, the next player checks, and the preflop raiser bets $80. There is $285 in the pot after your “call” and you raise $255 more, to a total of $400. If your opponent folds, you make a $165 profit.

You may have done better with straightforward play of simply betting on every round. If you bet the flop of $80 and the opponent calls, then bet $150 and he calls again, you have netted $235, and he may call your $250 or $300 river bet as well.

At what point in the second sequence was your opponent supposed to fold two aces? Unless you have the reputation of never bluffing (in which case you need to do a lot more stealing), how could anyone fold a big overpair before the river bet with this betting? So a flop bet not only eliminates backstops, or at least identifies who is still interested in the pot, it also allows you to take a big bite out of an opponent who holds a second-best hand. If he had only $500 at the start of this hand, you would probably break him. So don’t hope to get a small nibble by acting weak; max out by making a big haul. That is what a strong hand such as a set is supposed to have for a goal.

Those of you who think that no limit hold’em is a game where you are supposed to do tricky things and fool your opponent are looking at only one aspect of the game. A person who habitually checks his good hands is just as predictable as the player who bets when he has something and checks when he doesn’t. Vary how you play. Sometimes honesty is the best policy — even at poker! ♠

Bob Ciaffone’s new poker book, No-limit Holdem Poker, is now available. This is Bob’s fifth book on poker strategy. It can be ordered from Bob for $25 by emailing him at [email protected]. Free shipping in the lower 48 states to Card Player readers. All books autographed. Bob Ciaffone is available for poker lessons.