Interesting Decision In A Satellite

My summer break from poker is over and I am itching to get back to the felt. GUKPT Manchester is just around the corner, followed by EPT London, GUKPT Blackpool and then Paddy Power Pokers Irish Winter Festival which I can’t wait for. Other than a few trips to the local casino to help teach the lovely Emma and her family how to play hold ‘em I have played very little this summer, instead focusing on buying a house and planning the wedding.

I did however see an interesting spot in a cheap satellite recently. The tourney ends 10 minutes before the target tournament and pays out based on the chip counts of the players.

The prizes are as follows.

1st and 2nd get a seat

3rd gets £60

4th is the bubble boy.

The hero is dealt J9o and UTG goes all in for just over 7k, he needs a call to come first, if all the players fold he comes in 4th for nothing, he literally has to make this shove regardless of his hand so we put his range at 100% of the deck. UTG +1 is the chip lead on 11,000 chips. He uses his time bank to ensure this will be the last hand. He folds and guarantees his seat.

The hero is currently in 3rd place with 9500 chips. The other opponent, currently in second has 10,100. If the action was folded to me, J9o is approximately 52% versus a random hand. So if the hero calls he’s got a 52% chance of winning a seat worth £110. This bet is worth 52% of £110 or £57.20. If hero folds he is guaranteed £60, so folding is better by £2.80.

However the button, currently 2nd in chips, re raises all in. He mistakenly thought that hero would call and play for the win rather than fold and take the financially better option.

The button is a trickier read to make than UTG. He had not demonstrated the ability to think deeply thus far (this is a £10 tourney after all). If he mistakenly thinks hero will go all in to win the seat he may think he has to play any two cards as well otherwise he will finish 3rd as the winner of the pot will overtake his chip stack. There is a scenario where he can finish 4th if the hero wins the side pot and UTG wins the main pot. If he knows the hero will fold and guarantee himself 3rd for £60 he should fold 100% of his range, even AA because he would be guaranteed a seat.

It’s likely therefore that he mistakenly thinks the hero has to call and he is defending his seat with any two cards.

Therefore the hero’s J9o is probably against two completely random hands. I’ve had to find a new equity calculator, as my laptop with my trusty PokerStove crashed and I can’t seem to download it. However this new calculator says each random hand has approximately 30% chance to win, and J9o has a 35% chance to win. (I know this only adds up to 95%, but the chance of a tie and the fact it is slightly over 30% for the random hands to win makes up for the missing percentages).Therefore the permutations of a call are thus:

The hero will win the pot outright 35% of the time winning the £110 seat.

The deepest stack will win the entire pot 30% of the time. This is worth £60 as the hero had more chips than UTG.

The shortest stack will win the pot 30% of the time and create a side pot. The hero will win that side pot and a £60 seat 52% of the time. (J9o vs a random hand has 52% equity). 52% of £60 is £31.20.

Therefore the hero’s equity is (35% of £110) + (30% of £60) + (30% of 31.20) = 38.5 + 18 + 9.36 = £65.86

Therefore the correct play now is to call. This isn’t perfect maths as it doesn’t take into account 3 way ties, or tie’s for the split pot, but its close enough for me. The fact that we can tie gives hero a touch more equity than this.

My next article will detail how I get on in Manchester and at EPT London. Hopefully I will be telling you about my next trophy, but we will have to wait and see! By the way, I’m going to be using my Twitter account more often now that I’m back on the felt. You can find me @IanSimpsonPoker to see my updates on the road. ♠

After spending a year sponsored by Paddy Power Poker through their Sole Survivor promotion, Ian Simpson went on to win the 2013 Irish Poker Open to take home €265,000 euros. He currently plans on doing some work in schools in between travelling the tournament circuit and writing for Card Player Magazine. You can find him on twitter @IanSimpsonPoker