Who Has The Nuts?

In the major Las Vegas cardrooms, cash-game stack sizes tend to run a little deep. The buy-in cap for most of the $2-$5 games is $1,000, and it’s very common for the majority of the table to be playing more than $500 each. At $5-$10, the buy-in cap tends to be $3,000, and a number of players routinely sit this deep.

When stacks are deep, the nuts is a very important hand. Few players appreciate just how important the nuts can be in these games. Whether the nuts is reasonably in your range or not can determine how you should approach a situation.

Here’s an easy example. A tight, typical regular $2-$5 player sitting with $1,000 opens for $20 from under the gun (UTG). Two players call, and the big blind (BB) calls. There’s $82 in the pot.

The flop comes 7 4 2. Who has the nuts?

Any of the preflop callers could have flopped a set or possibly two pair. But the preflop raiser likely didn’t. Typical play in these games is to raise preflop from UTG with big cards and big pairs, but to limp hands like small pairs and small suited connectors. I argue tirelessly against splitting your preflop range this way, and this situation is a perfect example of why.

Let’s assume that you are in the big blind with 8 6 and looking to cause some trouble. How could this hand play out?

First, you could check. Let’s assume the preflop raiser checks, and everyone checks it through. When a typical preflop raiser checks a board like this one against three players, it’s overcards.

The turn is the 3. You bet $80, and everyone folds.

Or someone calls. There’s a good chance the call represents a five or an ace (likely with a pair like A-3). Bet most rivers, and you’ll get your fold.

Now the turn is the Q. You check again. The preflop raiser bets $50. The two players behind fold.

This is where the deep stacks matter. If you were playing $300 stacks, your opponent holding A-Q could just bet and call a shove without worrying too much about it.

But with these $1,000 stacks, your opponent has a problem. He’s repping A-Q, which is roughly the strongest hand he can reasonably hold given his action. He could easily be weaker than that. He could have a weaker queen. He could have busted high cards. He could possibly have a turned flush draw just like you (a bigger one, of course).

But he likely doesn’t have the nuts. To have the nuts, he would have had to have checked Q-Q on the flop — an unlikely play for a typical $2-$5 player. Beyond that, there are only three combinations of that hand possible, so it’s just a hard hand to have.

As we covered before, he’s unlikely to hold any of the smaller sets.

As the BB, however, you can easily hold any of the small sets. You can also hold two pair hands like Q 7. You can even have Q-Q. All the near-nut hands are in your range, and almost none of them are in the preflop raiser’s range.

This calls for a bluff. Many players would find a bluff with a gutshot and a flush draw, but I would push it harder than most. First, I would check-raise rather than bet out. You can be fairly confident someone will bet the queen turn card in these games. And if no one bets it, everyone has truly weak hands and a river bluff will likely succeed. A check-raise gets more into the pot in a good situation and shows more strength.

Second, I would make big bets. The deep stacks combined with my opponent’s capped range allow me to go potentially for an over 90 percent folding rate across the turn and river. When the strongest hand my opponent can likely have is one pair, and there is more than $900 behind, I should be able to get a fold.

If I make wimpy turn and river bets, however, my opponent will call down with A-Q, K-Q, and perhaps some other hands. So I won’t wimp out. I’ll make it $280 to go on the turn check-raise. This will get a lot of folds. When my opponent calls, he’ll usually have A-Q or K-Q. So I’ll barrel all non-ace, king, and queen rivers. If I make my hand, I’ll bet small to try to get a crying call. If I miss, I’ll bluff big.

So that’s what happens if you check the flop and it checks through. If you check and the preflop raiser c-bets, you can take a number of lines.

You can check-raise and rep the flopped set. Many players will abandon their overpairs eventually with stacks this deep, especially if an overcard hits the turn or river.
You can check/call with the intention of repping the slow played flopped set or the turned two pair. For instance, you check, the preflop raiser bets $65. The two players behind fold, and you call with your gutshot and backdoor flush draw.

The turn is the K. You check, your opponent bets $90, and you check-raise. He could have K-K, but there’s a much better chance he’s got Q-Q, J-J, 10-10, 9-9, or 8-8. He will almost certainly release these hands to the check-raise and the overcard.

If he checks the K through, you can overbet bluff the river — bet $350 into the $210 pot.

Finally, rewinding to the flop, you can just bet out. I play flopped sets sometimes by betting pot on little flops like this one. You can bet out $80. This will win you the pot immediately with good frequency. When the preflop raiser calls, he likely has an overpair. You can use the same techniques from above to pry him off these hands provided the turn and river cards cooperate either to encourage him to fold (for example, an ace or king that’s likely an overcard to his pair) or give you equity (for example, a turn spade, ten, or nine, eight, or six).

Final Thoughts

This analysis all started with the idea that the preflop raiser is unlikely to have flopped a set or two pair on the small board, while the BB can easily have these hands. When the stacks are deep enough, this disparity in top-end range strength can provide the blind with massive leverage given turn and river cards that cooperate.

What does it all mean? First, be aware of your range. Can you reasonably hold the nuts? If you can’t, it means you should consider checking some hands you might ordinarily bet. For instance, I think it’s entirely reasonable for this preflop raiser to check a hand like Q-Q on the flop, planning to call down turn and river barrels. This is particularly true if you have an annoying, range-aware opponent in the hand.

Second, be aware of your opponent’s range. Can he have the nuts? If not, think about blasting away. ♠

Ed’s brand new book, Reading Hands At No-Limit Hold’em, is available immediately for purchase at notedpokerauthority.com. Find him on Facebook at facebook.com/edmillerauthor and on Twitter @EdMillerPoker.