Why You Can’t Beat Low-Limit Games.

Many players complain bitterly that they can’t beat $2-$4, $3-$6, and $4-$8 fixed limit games. They insist that they play well, but lose because:

“There are too many idiots.”
“They don’t respect my raises.”
“They chase with weak draws.”
“My good hands don’t hold up.”
“I can’t push anybody off a hand.”

Some frustrated players have switched to no-limit. One joined our low-limit game and grumbled constantly about “this stupid game.” His silliest complaint was, “When I played here, I flopped top set and couldn’t push an idiot off a backdoor-flush draw. In no-limit I’d shove all in.”

Because I don’t teach while playing, I said nothing, but would tell a coaching client, “You don’t want him to fold. You’re a huge favorite. Why settle for a small pot?”
Most clients would agree, but a few would say (or think), “You may be right, but bad beats are so frustrating.” Of course they are, but poker isn’t about avoiding frustration; it’s about winning money. You should risk frustration to increase your profits.

With top set against almost any hand you have — by far — the best of it, and you should make the most of it. When someone with only a backdoor-flush draw calls, he’s giving you most of his bet. You want him to make stupid calls, even though you’ll occasionally lose.
A few clients might say, “That’s OK if you’re heads up, but in my games four, five, or more people often chase me. Somebody usually draws out.”

That argument sounds reasonable, but it’s wrong. With bigger fields there’s a higher probability that someone will draw out, but you still want them to call with negative expected value (EV) draws. With top set and no obvious flush or straight draws, virtually every hand is a huge underdog.

A friend objected, “But if the pot is large, it’s often plus EV to call.”

Of course, it is, but you want them to make negative EV calls. Unless the pot is so large that they’re getting profitable odds, you want them to call.

Total Equity Is Always Exactly 100 Percent

If your equity is 60 percent with five opponents, their average equity is only 8 percent each. If and only if their chances of winning are worse than the price they’re getting, their calls increase your EV.

Your equity percentage goes down as the number of chasers goes up, but the pot often increases faster than your percentage goes down. Therefore, if more people chase and your hand is strong enough, your EV often increases. You win fewer pots, but they’re much bigger, which more than offsets the lost pots.

The Fundamental Theorem of Poker

Let’s consider one part of it: “Every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you gain.” (The Theory of Poker). After seeing your top set, any sane opponent would fold because the odds against him are so bad.

A wise guy might reply, “But some opponents are crazy. They’d call anyway.” I’d laugh and say, “Good. If they want to give you their money, take it.”

Opponents’ Mistakes Increase Your Profits.

Players complain bitterly about opponents’ stupidity because they don’t understand that – if everyone played properly – the rake and other costs would defeat everybody. Only the house would win.

They also don’t realize that “every cent of your long term profit playing poker comes from exploiting your opponents’ errors and predictable tendencies.” (Miller, Sklansky, and Malmuth (Small Stakes Hold’em) They emphasized this point by saying, “If you do not win in the long term, it is not because your opponents are making too many mistakes; it is because you are.” (p. 18)

When I say that, some people go ballistic. “My mistakes? I played my hand perfectly, but this idiot…” If I reply that one, two or ten bad beat stories don’t prove they don’t make serious mistakes, they insist that they play just the way the books recommend, then angrily demand, “What mistakes do I make?”

The answer is simple: Virtually all low-limit players don’t give enough weight to costs. In fact, most of them don’t seriously think about costs, even though the rake, jackpot drop, and tokes cost so much that it’s extremely difficult to beat many low-limit games.
Let’s digress briefly. Someone once told me, “My friend is a terrible craps player. He makes stupid bets.”

I asked, “Didn’t you say you’ve lost heavily at craps?”

“Yes, but I’ve had some great nights. My friend loses much more than me because I know how to play.”

I could hardly keep from laughing. He insisted he’s good even though he loses. He must lose because craps is unbeatable. The same principle applies whenever skill can’t overcome costs. Since costs have such dramatic effects upon their results, why don’t most serious low-limit players carefully analyze them?

Three reasons: First, some play for fun and don’t care about costs. Second, they don’t understand how important costs are. They think, “What’s another dollar or two?” They’re making a huge mistake. That dollar or two comes out of every pot they win, which dramatically affects their edge, and edge “is the most important concept in poker… small differences in edge add up dramatically over time… you must emphasize edge, including the small edges, in all your poker decisions.” (Roy Cooke, “Understanding Edge In Poker, Part II,” Card Player, 1/22/14)

Third, analyzing and adjusting to costs is very hard work. The books don’t help because costs vary too much between rooms.

Factoring costs into your decisions fits right into the experts’ standard rule: The correct decision depends upon the situation, but we should add: including your costs. Since low-limit games’ costs are so high, many decisions which are correct without considering the costs are really serious mistakes. Therefore, you should carefully analyze your costs’ effects when you:

• Choose a game. You must be much better than your opponents to cover the huge costs.
• Choose a seat. Choose seats with the biggest edge.
• Decide whether to quit or stay. Frequently reevaluate your edge: If the game or your play has changed, do you have a large enough edge to beat this game with these players and costs now?
• Decide whether to fold, check, call, bet, or raise. Factor your costs into every decision. A decision that’s plus EV in low cost games is often minus EV in high cost games.

In other words, constantly ask, “Do I have a large enough edge to cover my costs?” Unless you’re playing just for fun, if the answer is, “No,” don’t do it.

Future articles will describe my crude, but fairly effective, methods. If you don’t properly evaluate and adjust to all your costs, you probably can’t beat most low-limit games. ♠

“Dr. Al” ([email protected]) coaches only on psychology issues. For information about seminars and webinars, go to propokerseminars.com. He is David Sklansky’s co-author of DUCY? and the sole author of four poker psychology books.