Learning No-Limit From Scratch ­- It’s About Ranges, Not Hands: Part I

Weak poker players routinely put their opponents on a given hand. “I put him on A-K,” or “I put him on aces,” are common statements. Often, it’s just a psychological justification for the play they just made. But it’s also an incorrect way to analyze poker. Typically, your opponent would play many hands the same way, and you should utilize the strategy that performs best against your opponent(s) plausible range of hands.

First, you must accurately put each opponent on a range of hands. This starts by analyzing his preflop actions. With which hands would he make the current play, taking into account the type of player he is and the situational nuances? Keep in mind, you should read everything through his eyes, his emotional state and his knowledge level, not yours.

So, being in tune with your opponent’s mindset is vital. If he would play some of his range in different ways from his current manner in this situation, then you need to discount that portion of his range accordingly. Take into account the odds that he would play the hand in the current manner vs. playing the same hand differently. For instance, if you think an opponent might slowplay a set rather than lead, discount the chances of him holding a set proportionally to the chances you think he would lead. For example; if you think he will only lead with 25 percent of his sets, reduce his “set range” by 75 percent when he leads.

As play continues, his hand range will narrow as you exclude more and more hands and you acquire more information. But the questions remain the same. However, you must keep in mind how the situation has changed card by card and decision by decision, plus how your opponent will read and react to those changes. And make sure you take into account his previous decisions, not just the current one.

Add a “deception factor” propensity to your opponent. By that, I mean what are the odds he is making a non-standard play trying to deceive his opponents? Once again, this will vary based on the situation and your opponent’s texture. Some poker “experts” recommend a given fixed percentage, but that percentage varies hugely based on each opponent’s nature. Those on wide open tilt will have a greater propensity to use deception plays than those who have “turtled up” and withdrawn into their shell. You’ll be more accurate by attaching the propensity based on your read of the current situation.

Let’s start with a simplistic model to create a basic level of understanding of ranges. For example; you might think a limping opponent would have any wired pair below tens, or any suited big cards, and all suited aces that weren’t A-K or A-Q suited. Plus, any solid big cards, but not A-K or A-Q. Notice how I’ve excluded the hands I thought he would raise with. So, he can hold 22-99, 10-9 suited, K-Q suited, and QJ-AJ. There are six card combinations of each pair and eight different pairs. So, there are 48 combinations of pairs. There are four combinations of each suited hand. For this exercise, I’m using 10-9 suited, J-10 suited, Q-J suited, Q-10 suited, K-10 suited, K-J suited, K-Q suited and A-2 suited-A-J suited. So, there are four combinations of 17 different hands, or 68 additional combinations. And let’s add the non-suited big cards, K-Q, K-J, A-J, A-10, Q-J. There are 12 combinations of each of those, adding an additional 60 combinations.

So, we have 176 possible combinations for this particular opponent. If you raise, which of these hands do you think he’ll fold? Some opponents will fold all but the very top end of this range, others will call with the entire range. When you’re considering a bluff-raise or semibluff, you need to be able to estimate what percentage of his range he will fold to assess the raise’s value.

Many poker “experts” quantify only the immediate fold equity to assess the value of the raise, but this is conceptually incorrect. You should also include the expected value (EV), positive or negative, from the play of the hand forward. That’s because you may get called, play the hand out, and win or lose more money after you raise.

Notice that I said EV and not “equity!” They are not the same thing. “EV” or “expected value” is the average of what we will win or lose from the current point forward. If you can expect to average making money playing the hand out, your EV will be positive. If you can expect to average losing money playing your hand, your EV will be negative.

Equity is the value of your hand should you be all-in. It is sometimes stated in percentage terms and sometimes is stated in terms of the monetary value of your hand in the current situation (30 percent equity in a $100 pot equals $30). It is important not to confuse these terms when calculating poker strategies. If there is money left to bet, keep in mind how that affects the price of your circumstances.

In short, when you’re thinking of raising preflop as a bluff or semibluff, consider your EV when called or raised and add that to your equation.

All this said, the equation for hand ranges is utilized in many poker equations and must at least be understood in order to attain any degree of poker expertise. I’ve included some basic concepts and stated how to work out hand-range equations. I understand this is complicated, particularly for those not math-oriented. But you can train your mind to do these equations. It may take time, but it will be worth the effort. Additionally, you can play with Flopzilla, a computer program that does hand-range analysis for you. You can memorize and get a “feel” for ranges with Flopzilla, but I still recommend that you learn the basic math to calculate hand ranges so you can add and subtract hands and portions of hand ranges to your memorized base numbers. I’m not sure any human being can memorize the complete hand range chart; at least I know I’m not smart enough to do it.

This is just Part One and the basics. Future parts of this series will discuss hand ranges and how to utilize them in your game. So, you’ve got two weeks to get this part down.

Study up. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally in Las Vegas for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke