Explain Poker Like I’m Five: Implied Odds

When you’ve played poker for years, it’s easy to forget that technical poker speak may as well be a different language. Many players just picked up a deck of cards for the first time and are wondering what the hell a reverse implied range merge against a large stack to pot ratio is.

Maybe you are new to poker as well and want to start analyzing the game at a deeper level, but the lingo and foreign concepts get in the way. To help, _Card Player_ brings you this brand new series, Explain Poker Like I’m Five.

Every issue, we’ll take on a new term or idea, perhaps one you might come across elsewhere in this very magazine, and we’ll break it down to its simplest components.

The Concept: Implied Odds

What Is It?

The estimated amount of money that you can expect to win if you complete your drawing hand, regardless of the immediate odds the pot is currently laying you.

Okay, Now Explain It Like I’m Five

Even though the immediate pot odds, which can be precisely calculated, might tell you that you should fold your hand, the implied pot odds may allow you to call because of future bets you can win after your draw is completed. Implied odds are a rough estimate that is calculated using many factors such as your outs, your opponent and their betting tendencies and how disguised your hand is.

Give Me An Example (Or Two)

You are holding J 10 on a flop of K Q 2 and there is $100 in the pot. You suspect that your opponent has a strong hand and that you will need an ace or nine to complete your straight or running diamonds in order to win.

Your opponent bets $80. With eight outs that can win you the pot, you will only win the hand 32 percent of the time. You have to call $80 in order to win $180, which means that you aren’t getting the right price to draw to your hand and should fold.

However, if you believe that you have the right implied odds, you can still call the bet. If the turn or river complete your hand, and you believe that your opponent will continue to bet or call your bets, then the chips you can possibly win will justify your decision to call on the flop.

Of course, you need to be very sure of what kind of opponent you are up against. If the turn is an ace, giving you a straight and your opponent shuts down and even folds to a bet, then you will have made a mistake by calling on the flop. That’s why it’s important that you draw to something that is disguised or that you are up against a very strong hand that will call you down. When flush draws come in, they are especially transparent and have a tendency to slow aggressive players down.

In order to decide whether or not to call based on implied pot odds, you must put your opponent on a range of hands. If that range is mostly made up of weak, one-pair hands, then you can assume that your draw is not worth chasing. If their range is made up of some strong hands that will pay you off, then you might want to consider chasing. It’s important not to overestimate an opponent’s willingness to pay you off, or you may be making weak calls where the risk outweighs the reward. ♠