Analyzing A Close River Situation

Despite spending a decent amount of time studying, getting in shape, and finding my way into a tranquil mindset, the 2015 WSOP main event did not go well for me. I feel like I played my best, but the cards simply did not cooperate at all. However, I did get off to a nice start. Today I will share with you a hand that may seem blatantly straightforward, but in reality, it is a tricky spot that I think I played in the most profitable manner.
With the blinds at 50-100, everyone folded to me in the cutoff seat. I had 28,000 chips. Everyone else had 30,000 or more. I looked down at the beautiful A A and raised to 275.

I tend to raise to around three big blinds when very deep stacked because, with this stack size, the goal is to build and win a meaningful pot. If you min-raise to 200, you make it difficult to win a large pot. Min-raising is a powerful strategy when you are shallow-stacked because it lowers the amount of chips you can lose on any individual hand, but when you are deep stacked, your goal should be to maximize value, not minimize risk. If you play well, the risk of going broke with a 300 big blind stack is nearly non-existent.

A tight, aggressive guy reraised to 750 on the button. To everyone’s surprise, a tight, passive 55 year old player decided to four-bet to 2,150 from the big blind. I was quite confident that he had a narrow range of perhaps A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, and A-K. Knowing this, I decided to five-bet to 5,500, fully expecting the initial reraiser to fold and the tight passive player in the big blind to call, which is exactly what happened. When the big blind failed to six-bet, I assumed he did not have A-A, which I already assumed, given I had two of the aces.

The flop came A J 5, giving me top set. The big blind checked. I decided to check behind. At this point, I thought I would be able to play a substantial pot if my opponent happened to have A-K or J-J, and if he had K-K or Q-Q, he would likely not put much more money in the pot unless he improved to a set. Checking gives my opponent the opportunity to get unlucky to improve. It is important to realize that I do not need to be too concerned about the various draws on the board because, combined with the fact that I have the ace of clubs in my hand, my opponent simply cannot have any of them, given the preflop range I assigned him.

The turn was the 4. My opponent decided to bet 5,600 into the 11,800 pot. I called. I think calling is vastly superior to raising because if my opponent has A-K or J-J, he will likely put more money in on the river, either by betting or check-calling, and if he has K-K or Q-Q, I do not want him to fold because he is drawing dead. Calling is the only play that has any merit unless I thought my opponent would turn his K-K or Q-Q into a bluff if I raised small, which I certainly did not think was the case given my opponent’s tendencies.

The river was the 8. My opponent checked. I assumed that he would continue betting with J-J, so I narrowed his range to exactly A-K, K-K, and Q-Q. I assumed that he would call a sizable, but less than all-in, bet with A-K. I was unsure how much he would call with K-K or Q-Q, although I assumed it was not much. Notice there are four combinations of A-K (A K, A K, A K, and A K) and 12 combinations of K-K and Q-Q. This means that he will have A-K 25 percent of the time and K-K or Q-Q 75 percent of the time. I made the assumption that he would call an 11,000 bet with A-K and a 3,000 bet with K-K or Q-Q. To figure out which bet will show a larger profit, you multiply the size of the bet by the percentage it will be called.

I thought he would call 11,000 25 percent of the time (when he has A-K or the sporadic J-J, which I ignored), which gives me 11,000(.25) = 2,750 profit.

I thought he would call 3,000 90 percent of the time (sometimes he hero-folds), which gives me 3,000(.9) = 2,700.

While you may think a bet somewhere between 3,000 and 11,000 will show a larger profit, you will find that once you go above a certain bet size (in this case, I assumed it was 3,000), the percentage of the time your opponent will call immediately drops off, making those bets subpar. It is worth noting that both of these bets are very close in equity, so my actual bet sizing choice isn’t too relevant. You must understand the process of choosing the proper bet size so you can pick the optimal sizing in situations that are not as close.

All of this led me to bet 11,000 into the 23,000 pot. My opponent instantly folded Q Q face-up, saying he found out where he was at with his turn bet, which made me think that he would fold on the river to almost any bet, which makes me think my 11,000 bet was almost certainly ideal. When analyzing situations like this, it is important to not be result-oriented. Of course, if I knew my opponent had exactly Q-Q, I would have made a tiny bet, but that isn’t how poker works in the real world. It is mandatory that you get in the habit of thinking in terms of ranges. That will allow you to logically extract the maximum amount of equity in spots where most players leave a bit of money on the table. ♠

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $6 million in tournament winnings. Each week, he posts an educational blog and podcast at JonathanLittlePoker.com, where you can get a FREE poker training video that details five things you must master if you want to win at tournament poker.