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September 14 — You should always consider what your opponent may be overplaying when you get raised and hold a strong hand.

One of the more interesting spots that you can get into when playing no-limit hold’em is when you have what you think is a strong hand, especially on the turn, facing a raise. I have trained myself in these situations to always firstly think when I may be scared of the nuts, “What other hands can my opponent be overplaying”? 

On one of CrushLivePoker.com’s podcasts, Crush Live Call-ins, which streams live on the CrushLivePoker channel on Twitch every Monday at 7:45PM ET, I had a caller discuss a hand in which he flopped bottom set out of the big blind. This was a $5-$5 no-limit hold’em game with a $300-$500 buy-in, but the stacks in this particular hand were fairly deep. It got limped around three ways preflop and my student checked in the small blind with 4 4, $1,200 deep. The big blind, who had $1,400, decided to raise to $30, and all of the limpers called, more than $1,000 effective. The hero in the hand also called and they all saw the pot four ways. The board came out 8 5 4, giving the hero in the hand bottom set. The hero checked, as did the big blind, and it got checked around. The turn was the K. Now the hero came out and bet $75. The preflop raiser folded, as did the player next to act, and the second limper raised to $190. The action got back around to the hero and he was confused as to what to do.

Even holding bottom set here, there are four specific hands that beat him—higher sets and a flopped straight. If I was in his position and got raised on the turn, the first thing that would pop into my head would be “can my opponent be overplaying something?” Here, we can assume a reasonable range preflop because of the limp and the call of $30 by the villain. The only hands that we are really ahead of here are kings-up and A-K, neither of which are likely. Remember, the villain in the hand limped, then called, so a hand like K-8 or K-6 suited is highly unlikely, and specifically with K-8, the player most likely would have bet the flop when the preflop raiser checked to him. It is possible that he could have A-K, but again, he was the second limper in the hand preflop and has to have at least some frequency of raising before the flop with that holding. So when you look at the possibilities of overplaying, the only hand that could make sense is A-K. More often than not, the hero is beaten.

But that is not to say that the hero cannot call the turn raise. Obviously we have equity with implied odds versus the most likely slowplayed hand on the flop, which is a straight. But to three-bet the turn to get it in would be a drastic overplay. So, the hero called. The river brought out a 10, and the hero checked once again. This time, the villain in the hand absolutely bombed the river to the tune of $400. Even though that bet sizing only represents 75 percent of the pot, in live poker, and at this level, the more absolute size of the bet is relevant—and here it is big. There just are not enough hands that our opponents would overplay here, as there is almost no possibility that he would go for this sizing with A-K at the end. He must have pocket fives, pocket eights, or 7-6. In this spot, we need to make a tough fold. Unfortunately for the hero, he called down and was shown 7-6 suited.

September 9 — Multi-way action can sometimes make it easier to hand read. 

When you are playing against predictable opponents, sometimes the nature of multi-way pots makes their bets more honest. Let us review a hand that I played at the Commerce $5-$10 no-limit hold’em game last week.

Overall, the game was very good and I was deep into the session. I had worked my stack up from the buy-in cap of $1,500 to more than $4,000. Fortunately for me, there were many many recreational players at the table whose styles were extremely loose-passive and they were also very deep—some having more than $5,000. It was about 1 am when the following hand went down. I was in the big blind with 5 4 and the pot folded around to the hijack, a young, decent winning player who raised it to $35 with a $3,500 stack. The button, a very tight, older gentlemen who had just coolered someone for a $4,000 pot called on the button, $4,500 deep, and I decided to also call. Now I have preached here in this column and on my training site CrushLivePoker.com the dangers of playing suited connecters from out of position, but being this deep and with what I thought was a good grasp on the players, calling was better than three-betting, I thought. The flop came out K 7 3 and I checked my gutshot straight draw. The preflop raiser bet $70, and the button called quickly. Even though my draw was not all that powerful, I thought that in this particular situation that the preflop raiser could very well have been c-betting as a bluff and might check the turn. I also thought that the button was so tight that he might check through with a king, giving me a free card. Lastly with my overcall on the flop, I thought that in the right scenario I could represent front door spades.

The turn brought in the 2 giving me an open-ended straight draw. I checked and the preflop raiser also checked. At this point, I knew that the preflop raiser was most likely bluffing on the flop, as there was no way he would check such a blank turn on a wet board with a strong value hand. At this point, I was hoping for that check through that I talked about earlier from the button, but instead he bet $175. However, because of this action I was almost 100 percent certain that the button had a king only. Once he bets, especially with what live players perceive to be rather large sizing, he almost always has a value hand. This was also not the type of player to slow play a set on the flop with the possibility of draw out there, as he would have been scared of the bad beat. So, I put everything together and realized that the preflop raiser most likely had nothing and was giving up and the button had the real hand. Not only did the additional equity allow me to call now, but I really thought that this would be a great situation to represent the front door spade draw if it came, as I was able to figure out that no one else also had a flush draw. So, with all of this information, I decided to call. As predicted the preflop raiser quickly folded.

The river brought in the 5, bricking out my draw, pairing my five, but more importantly, bringing in the spade draw. I thought that this was a great spot to bluff and fired out $450. The button did not think too long with it, flashed me a king, and folded. Usually I am not in the business of running large bluffs against recreational players, but the multi-way nature of this pot and the bet into two people on the turn easily allowed me to deduce that the button had a king and that my line through the overcall on the flop and bomb bet on the river looked so much like a flush that it would be hard for the older man to call allowing me to win the pot. ♠

Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on Twitter @CrushLivePoker and @BartHanson. Check out his poker training site exclusively made for live cash game play at CrushLivePoker.com where he produces weekly podcasts and live training videos.