A Simple Tournament Hand?

There are two very costly types of mistakes. There are huge blunders. These don’t occur very often, but when they do, they are extremely expensive. Usually they involve a large bluff or a hero call that goes wrong and costs a ton of chips. (Some of these may even be technically correct plays that you attempt at the wrong time—your table feel or reading an opponent’s tell was off base.) The other expensive type of mistake is a lot harder to notice. These are tiny mistakes in situations that occur frequently. Players who limp into a lot of pots with bad position frequently make this type of mistake.

Then there are inferior plays that occur in situations which aren’t that common. Unless you play a lot of hours of poker, these won’t be a huge leak, but they still may quietly cost you money. A friend of mine from New York, who retired from option trading and has gotten into poker, Harry B, recently played a hand, which presented a lot of close choices. In the middle stages of a tournament, the blinds were 500-1,000 and the ante was 100. He had about 40,000. Everyone folded to a loose, active player in the cutoff with a large stack on his right, who min-raised to 2,000. Harry had Q J on the button and called. The small blind folded, and the big blind raised to 7,000, with a stack a little larger than Harry’s. The initial raiser and Harry both called. The flop was K 10 5.

The big blind led out for 10,000 into the 23,000-chip pot. The initial raiser shoved. Harry thought for a long time with his straight draw and back-door flush draw. He still thought there was a reasonable chance this guy was making a move, and that the big blind would fold, so he called. How would you rate his three plays? He called twice preflop and once on the flop?

My own feeling is that his first call was a little weak. His hand is comfortably in the top ten percent, and his opponent’s range in the cutoff was probably top 30 or 40 percent. Clearly the hand is too good to fold. By calling, you will probably get to see the flop, and since you are the button, have position for the rest of the hand. I think it is much better to raise to 8,000, plus or minus a thousand. Why? A lot of the time you will win the 5,000-chip pot, and increase your stack by more than 10 percent. When you call you give the blinds very good pot odds to call. Hands that dominate yours, like K-J, will fold after the raise and your three-bet. If the initial raiser does call, you are probably behind. You still have position, a hand that may flop well, and the potential to bluff if he seems weak.

The second preflop call is for 5,000 more in a 16,000-chip pot. I think this is clearly correct. You are getting 3-1, you have position, and you have a hand that might flop well. The fact that the initial raiser just called makes your hand stronger. Your hand will win more than a third of the time against a lot match-ups. For example, A-K offsuit for the big blind and a small pair or suited ace for the cutoff.

The final call comes on the flop. There has been a bet and a raise, and you are calling for your entire stack. I think this is one of those decisions where being at the table helps a lot. If you think, as Harry did, that the cutoff might be making a move, and that the big blind will fold, calling is correct. If you think that the big blind will call, and that both of your opponents have something good, you should fold. You are getting about 2.7 to 1 for your call. You need to win more than a quarter of the time to break even on your call. Say they have good hands like A-K offsuit and A 4, you’ll win less than 20 percent. Your read on the cutoff was spot-on. He had Q 9. Against his hand, you were a 70-30 favorite preflop and a 55-45 favorite even after he flopped the flush draw. Unfortunately the big blind had aces, and snap called. He tripled up and you exited the tournament.

Notice how well the preflop re-raise would have worked. If the blinds had folded, you would have been heads-up in position, as a huge favorite. (I’m not sure why the cutoff called the reraise from the big blind with you behind him. But since he did, I assume he would have also called your raise.) After your three-bet, if the big blind makes his four-bet raise to somewhere around 20,000, you have a reasonable fold. A call would leave you almost pot-committed with what is almost certainly the worst hand. You fold, and move on to next hand with over 30 big blinds in your stack.

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.