Learning No-Limit From Scratch ­- Offering the Right Odds

A beautiful thing about no-limit is that you can “set the price” with your bet sizing. By setting the price, you are offering your opponent(s) odds.

Many novice players either bet so much that their opponents can’t call in an effort to “protect” their hand, or they bet too small, giving their opponents a good price because they want to keep them in the pot. In the first case, they miss value from opponents who would have incorrectly called, but will fold to an overbet. In the second case, they give their opponent(s) excellent implied odds to draw out.

During World Series of Poker time, playing $2-$5 no-limit hold’em at Caesars Palace, three players limped, and a novice tourist, about $450 deep, raised to $15 two off the button. In the several hours I played with him, he’d called frequently, but this was his first preflop raise. Mr. Novice-Tourist had even flatted a limp with A-K offsuit earlier that session. My read of his range was almost exclusively big pairs.

The cutoff and button folded, and $600 deep, I peered down at 2 2 in the small blind. I’m not much of a ducks fan, particularly out of position; they tend to get under-setted a lot for obvious reasons. But with Mr. Novice-Tourist, a calling station whom I read for a big pair, and the low entry price, I made the easy call. The implied price generated was just too elevated by my read of his hand, the fact that he was a calling station, and the small-sized preflop raise.

The big blind folded, and the limpers called. We took the flop five-handed, $80 in the pot. I smacked my set when the flop came 4 3 2. I considered check-raising, but since Mr. Novice-Tourist had only $450 left in a $80 pot, I thought leading gave me a better chance of getting his stack. Additionally, I might also get a call or two from other opponents, though, if I did, it would likely be a low-equity call from a draw. Since Mr. Novice-Tourist probably had a big wired pair, with likely only two wins against my holding (six if he held A-A because he would also have a gutter), any bets acquired from him had higher value.

I fired a pot sized bet, $80, feeling that Mr. Novice-Tourist wasn’t ever folding. One opponent, who had me covered, called the $80, and Mr. Novice-Tourist shoved, making it $355 more. I thought about my best play against Mr. Post-Flop-Caller. He might have a flopped a straight or a bigger set, but I couldn’t realistically influence how those hands would play out. There were straight and flush draws in his range. With a heart or straight draw, he’d be between a 2:1 to 3:1 underdog depending on his number of wins to beat my three ducks, about the right price since I’d be firing my remaining $150 no matter what came on the turn. Did I want to induce him to call or would I rather he fold? In this particular situation, getting $1,180-$505 implied odds, he’d be incorrect to call with any open-ender or flush draw, but correct with many combo draws. I thought about if there were any other hands in Mr. Post-Flop-Caller’s flop calling range that would afford me value. I didn’t think he would call with an overpair in this situation, unless it was fives, and that’s a maybe. If I shoved, he might fold a straight draw or a weak flush draw thinking he was drawing weaker than he actually was. And when an opponent folds a hand he would be incorrect in calling with, you have lost the value of the call.

I called, intent of keeping the value of the non-combo straight and flush draws in his range. Mr. Post-Flop-Caller tanked for a long while and moved all-in. I called. The turn was the 10. Then, hello the worst card in the deck, the 5, hit on the river.

“Set” Mr. Post-Flop-Caller apprehensively announced. My thoughts immediately turned to my preflop calling decision with deuces, and I wondered whether I had made an error calling. Then Mr. Post-Flop-Caller turned over 5 5, having flopped an open-ender and making the set on the river. Mr. Novice-Tourist, shaking his head, showed the K K and muttered “last card.” I tossed my ducks into the muck face-down without saying a word.

The hand speaks to sizing your bets to manipulate your opponents into making mistakes. When Mr. Novice-Tourist raised to only $15, he gave all his opponents, including me, outstanding implied odds price to draw out on him. His intent was to keep people in, but he didn’t realize he was offering too good a price. And he succeeded in keeping them in, much to his dismay.

My decision to entice Mr. Post-Flop-Caller to call the turn was also an example of shaping my bet sizing to offer your opponent(s) odds. It was the converse of Mr. Novice-tourist’s $15 bet, which induced his opponents to call correctly. I, not wanting my opponent to correctly fold the weak portion of his drawing range, called on the flop in an attempt to further induce him to call. Since, knowing he was committed, he shoved, he probably would have called anyway. But my thinking was correct. You don’t want to direct your opponents away from making bad calls or folding the portion of their range they are incorrect in calling with. That said, you must balance the equation to the blending of all of his calling range against the implied odds he is receiving. And you must estimate if the expected value (EV) lost from the lower bet sizing to induce the call will increase his value for the rest of his calling range by more than you are gaining.

In retrospect, I felt I’d played my hand well. I correctly analyzed my implied odds, made the correct preflop call, got my money in as almost a 3:2 favorite on the flop receiving almost 2:1 as a flop street price. My decisions were correct, and while I lost my stack on the hand, I obtained positive EV, which is the only way you should measure your gambling equations.

But yeah, I get it. It didn’t feel that way as I was calling for more chips! ♠

*Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at *www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke