Final Table Takedown: Matt Stout Shares Strategy from a Tough Opponent’s Perspective and Makes a Huge River Bluff

Matt Stout went on a heater while double-majoring in business and psychology at The College of New Jersey and decided to take a break from his studies to pursue poker. In the last 10 years, he has forgotten everything he learned in his 126 college credits worth of classes and replaced it with poker math and bad beats stories while racking up more than $7 million in tournament earnings across the online and live felt.

After several years at the tables he felt like a parasite on society and became the Founder and President of the Charity Series of Poker which raises money for worthy causes through charity poker events. For some reason, the folks at Seminole Hard Rock Poker in Hollywood, Florida and the people at BorgataPoker.com have both decided that they wanted Matt to be an ambassador for their respective brands despite the fact that he has a laugh that sounds like a dying hyena, which can be heard from miles around.

Stout’s students have been winning more than he has over the past few years and he can be contacted about online, one-on-one coaching as well as in-person seminars at [email protected].

Event: 2015 Borgata Spring Poker Open

Players: 2,408 •  Entry: $560 •  First Prize: $131,970 •  Finish: 2nd

Key Concepts: Final table dynamics; blind vs. blind; checking vs. value betting; bet sizing; hero calls

Craig Tapscott: This final table was fun because you’re good friends with your final two opponents.

Matt Stout: Yes. It was pretty awesome that I ended up getting three-handed in such a big tournament with a couple of guys that I knew well. Carlos Alvarado and I had known each other for years because we’ve played in some home games together. Asher and I had also known each other for years, and we would often run into each other on the circuit. I always thought Asher was going to do some big things and this tournament ended up being a stepping stone on the quick path to poker fame for him. He ended up going on to win the $15,000 buy-in World Poker Tour Championship later in this same series.

Conniff calls from the small blind. Stout checks his option holding 10 5.

CT: Standard action so far.

MS: Yes. There’s nothing too interesting or noteworthy before the flop in this hand. Asher had been limping a lot of hands from the small blind into my big blind at this final table, which was a sound strategy given the table dynamic. He hadn’t raised me once from the small blind. I had been raising some of his limps, but was content just to see a flop with my less-than-stellar holding against someone I knew was capable of limping some strong hands.

CT: And you want to share what Conniff’s hand turned out to be because you are going to approach this feature a little differently.

MS: Yes. I wanted to discuss the hand a bit from Asher’s perspective since he has more interesting decisions throughout the hand than I did. He was holding J 3.

Flop: 10 7 3 (pot: 720,000)

Conniff checks. Stout bets 400,000. Conniff calls.

CT: What are you thinking when Conniff calls?

MS: Well the action was pretty standard on the flop as well. If Asher bets he isn’t going to get called by any worse hands except draws that he’s not far ahead of. And he would be in tough spots on future streets against those hands’ semibluffs even when he is ahead. So there’s no sense in him betting.

CT: Why is that?

MS: Well he knows that I’ll stab with some air when he checks. And even if I do bet again on the turn he will be in a pretty good spot on any jack, three, or diamond turn. I obviously value bet my top pair after he checked since I get called by a lot of worse hands and draws here.

Turn: 5 (pot: 1,520,000)

Asher checks. Stout bets 850,000.

CT: So what is Conniff thinking now?

MS: This is where the hand gets more interesting. Asher now has bottom pair and a flush draw, which is a hand that a lot of players (myself included) would likely lead out or check-raise the turn with when out-of-position. By check-calling you put yourself in a spot where, despite all of your outs, you’re a favorite to get to the river out-of-position with nothing but bottom pair while praying your opponent checks the river and that your hand is good. Obviously my turn decision is super easy to bet again for value, so I do.

Conniff calls.

River: 9 (pot: 3,220,000)

Conniff checks. Stout bets 1,750,000. Conniff raises to 7,050,000.

CT: Uh oh!

MS: Exactly. This card marked the exact moment the tournament began to go downhill for me. I made yet another decision to make an easy value bet with my two pair, but talked myself into a pretty horrific call after Conniff check-raised. Even Jamie Kerstetter, who was doing the live stream commentary and knows me pretty well, summed it up well when he said, “Matt knows this is a bad call if he makes it, you can see it all over his face.” 

CT: So after he pushed the raise in, what were you thinking was going on?

MS: Since I know Asher won’t raise the river with a worse hand than mine for value, this call definitely qualifies as a hero call since I can only beat bluffs in his range. Therefore the fact that the board is quite wet and had a lot of straight draws and flush draws that missed, a bluff possibility was obviously a big part of my thought process.

CT: So you started from the beginning of the hand to see if that could make any sense.

MS: Yes. Since there was a bet on the flop it’s a lot more likely for Asher to have flopped a flush draw, than the backdoor flush draw that ended up being completed on the river. So that makes it a much different situation than if a heart had hit on the river. It also had to do with a bit of me leveling myself though.

CT: How so?

MS: Asher had played pretty snug throughout the final table against me. So I thought he may be trying to use that against me to bluff in a spot where he knows that I’m unlikely to have a hand strong enough to call his check-raise on the river, especially for that large of a bet. Ultimately, though, I just don’t think Asher has enough bluffs in his river range to justify calling another 5.3 million chips in this situation. Looking back, it was a really bad call that probably ended up costing me the tournament. But not before I made one of my favorite bluffs of my career so far.

Stout calls. Asher reveals J 3 and wins the pot of 17,320,000.

Key Concepts: Risk-reward ratio; semi-bluffing; when to show bluffs

CT: I’m looking forward to your favorite bluff. How’s the heads-up match going so far?

MS: By this time Asher has knocked out Carlos while I hovered around the same amount of chips I was left with after the last debacle of a hand. I decided to raise in position with a hand that’s somewhat decent for heads-up play.

Stout raises to 800,000 from the button holding 9 5.

Flop: K 4 3 (pot: 1,700,000)

Conniff checks. Stout bets 700,000.

CT: There was really no choice but to continuation bet, right?

MS: Yes. I have no showdown value here. Continuation betting is purely a bluff, but it’s a dry board that I’ll get a lot of folds from better hands on. There are also a ton of turn cards that I’ll turn some equity on, which will make it easier to continue bluffing even if I get called on the flop.

CT: OK. What cards?

MS: I’ll have a straight draw on any ace, 2, 6 or 7 turn and a flush draw if any heart comes. I’ll also have a decent amount of showdown value with second pair if a 9 or a 5 comes. It’s always good to think through how many good or bad turn cards there are for you when considering what to do on any given street.

Turn: 6 (pot: 3,100,000)

Conniff bets 1,450,000.

CT: Wait a minute. Now he’s leading into you. But the turn was a pretty good card for you.

MS: I go from no pair, no draw to open-ended with a flush draw on this particular turn, so needless to say it was a sight for sore eyes after getting called on the flop. However, it presented an interesting decision. I had 10.4 million chips when he bet on the turn, and a lot of people would either decide to semibluff shove or raise on the turn here. Others would give their opponent credit for a big hand, just call the turn, and fold to a bet on the river if they miss their draw. I decided that I thought his bet was weak, but I also thought stacks were a little too deep for me to want to raise or move all-in on the turn. However, I also decided before calling that I was going to do it with the intention of bluffing most rivers I missed whether Asher checked or bet.

Stout calls.

MS: I also think there’s a chance I can get Asher to bet-fold some value hands on the river that he would have called a shove with on the turn. Mainly because since calling turn and shoving over a river bet looks more like a value hand I was trapping with, as opposed to a turn shove where he knows I may be semibluffing with a big draw.

River: 6 (pot: 6,000,000)

Conniff bets 2,300,000. Stout moves all-in. Conniff folds. Stout wins the pot of 8,300,000.

CT: Well played.

MS: Thanks. I actually showed my hand. It’s such a beautiful thing when a hand goes to plan. I may have lost the war, but this sure was a fun battle to win. When I still played poker with my ego I would constantly show big bluffs just because I was so proud of myself, but that was definitely not the case here. I thought it was a good spot to try to take the wind out of the sails of an opponent who was playing really well and had all of the momentum. In the end he played better than I did that day, recovered from this hand, and got the title he deserved. If only I had remembered how to fold two pair. ♠