Flop Evaluation — Part 5: More on Suitedness

Flops contain attributes: Pairs, Suits, Connection, Rank, and Variability. So far I have described each of these, and then devoted columns to Rank, Variability and begun the discussion of suitedness. Suits: A flop may contain three suits (rainbow), two suits (thus there is a flush draw possible) or one suit (a flush is already possible.)

The flop will contain two of a suit slightly more than half the time, about 55 percent. Next most common are the rainbow flops (three suits), which occur about 40 percent of the time. The remaining five percent of the time the flop comes out with three cards of the same suit. The previous column discussed the cases in which the flop is uni-suit (all the same suit) or rainbow. In this column, the discussion of suitedness will continue by looking at the most common case-when the flop contains two of a suit. This means that flush draws are possible.

The fact that a flush draw is possible, doesn’t make it likely that someone has a flush draw. Even when you don’t have any of the suit, it doesn’t make it likely that your opponent does have a flush draw. Let’s rough out the possibilities mathematically. A player with a wide range can have a lot of suited hands. There are approximately 30 to 35 playable hands that are suited in each suit. There are 12 suited aces, seven suited kings, four suited queens, two suited jacks, and a bunch of smaller connectors and one-gap connectors. Since two of the suit are on the board, you can reduce this to about 25 to 30 that are live. Since a wide range consists of more than 300 hands, this means that a player will have a flush draw less than 10 percent of the time. When the suited cards on the flop include the ace and to a lesser extent the king, there are fewer suited combos that are in the range. A good approximation would be to assume that when you have none of the key suit, and your opponent has a flush draw 7 percent of the time when there is no ace on board and 5 percent of the time when the ace is on board. Let’s look at one example:

You raise preflop with A K in middle position, and get called by one opponent with a wide range (say the button or the big blind.) The flop is K 10 2. You bet, and he calls. Does he have a flush draw? I wish I could say something definitive or informative about this type of situation. His theoretical calling range includes a variety of pairs with kings, tens, and pocket pairs. It also includes some straight draws like Q-J or even A-Q. He might occasionally float with a weird hand like J-8 and a back door flush draw. Does his range include a flush draw? The most important thing is to know your opponent. Many players will make a semi-bluff raise or check-raise with a lot of their flush draws. Against one of these players, you can be fairly confident that his call excludes a flush draw. Against anyone else, you have to include flush draws in their range.

Imagine you are the player fighting against the A-K. Should you raise or check-raise a flush draw? I think these semi-bluffs are very powerful. For example, if the hand is dealt out, A 9 will beat the A-K more than one-third of the time. Since the bettor may have a weaker hand, you may have even more outs. If he has K-Q, then an ace will be an out. And he may have missed completely in which case you’ll win immediately. These semi-bluffs will also enable you to get called more often when you raise with a monster, like a set.

There is a great deal of difficulty in playing flops with flush draws. And remember that the flop will contain a flush draw more than half the time. These are situations where reading your opponent, based on knowing his patterns or finding his tells, is the crucial factor in making correct decisions. In the next column our discussion will focus on flops containing pairs. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow aka Zebra is a very successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 40 years. With two WSOP bracelets, over 50 cashes, and a few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his Vegas gaming time to poker, and can be found in cash games at Bellagio and at tournaments during the WSOP. When escaping from poker, he spends the spring and the fall in New York City where he hangs out at his bars: Doc Holliday’s, The Library and DBA.