Real Poker: Thinking about Thinking

The range of thought in low and middle-stakes poker players can get mighty wide. And much of the value of playing mid-level poker comes from accurately reading how your opponent thinks. Read their thoughts well, and you’ll be able to acquire value, fold correctly and bluff appropriately in more situations, adding greater expected value (EV) to your game. But discerning those thoughts is not going to be easy.

Mindreading is a skillset that you need to develop to play at a strategically high level. Put yourself in your opponent’s viewpoint, what did he think, why did he think it, and why did he do what he did? He’s likely to think the same way in a similar hand in the future. And from that information, you can creatively design +EV plays that can exploit that knowledge.

While playing in a frisky $2-$5 no-limit hold’em game, $630 deep, an aggressive-minded player, about $800 deep raised to $20 UTG+1 and was called by two opponents both with over $500. In the big blind, I looked down to the 8-6 suited. Not a great holding by any means, but getting 65-15 current, good implied odds, and closing out the action, I tossed in three red chips.

The dealer flopped the Q 9 7, delivering me a weak open-ender and a back-door flush draw. There were two clubs on the board making the 10 and 5 risky, and even if clubs weren’t out, either of those cards would intimidate my opponents from putting in money. Additionally any 10 might fill in a K-J holding, and that would cost me a lot of chips. I knuckled, looking to ascertain what the other three players’ actions would be, and make my decision based on a higher level of information.

Mr. Aggressive-Minded led $30 into an $80 pot, a smaller wager than I expected from him. Both callers folded, and it was to me. I thought about my opponent’s thought process. Why was he betting small on this draw heavy board? While he was overly aggressive, it was a tough board to lead into three players with air. So, he had to have some kind of a hand.

I thought about check-raise semi-bluffing, but with such a weak holding I didn’t want to get a lot of chips in the pot currently. If he had a draw, he might reraise as a semi-bluff himself, except he would also have the best hand. I felt his range was a mix of mediocre hands and draws, reasoning he would have bet larger with his strongest hands. Getting 110-30, I called.

I swished the turn, the 5, and contemplated how I could extract the most value from my holding. I thought about check-raising, but he might not bet a lot of hands that he would call with, and he likely wouldn’t call a check-raise with many of his pair hands. I wondered whether I had any information that might help guide me to the best play. In a previous hand I’d seen him raise a small turn bet and not get called. I highly suspected it was a bluff. If I was correct, he might try that play again, particularly since it had appeared to work.

I reasoned that he would call a small bet with some of his one pair hands that he’d likely fold to a bigger bet. And those calls would provide me high EV as he would be mostly drawing dead. And, because he was aggressive, a small bet might induce a raise from his drawing hands and maybe even as a bluff. And, of course, Mr. Aggressive-Minded would almost certainly raise with any big hand he held. I wagered $35 into a $140 pot, a small bet that he would interpret as weak.

He thought for a moment and raised to $155. I shoved, raising $420 more. I thought he had a lot of draws in his raising range, and I didn’t want to provide him with a correct price. He gave me a wry smile, turned up two tens and tossed them into the muck.

The hand speaks to designing a creative play based on observing a previous play, perceiving my opponents mindset, contemplating how he would play different portions of his range, and manipulating a situation to exploit that mindset. Mr. Aggressive-Minded read small bets as weak and sought to bluff them. Had I not been focused and contemplating his thought process, I’d have made a different play that provided me with less value.

Of important note, this play would have lost its value if Mr. Aggressive-Minded could read my thinking. So, if you’re designing creative plays, think about their transparency to the specific opponent. If they can read what you’re thinking, its value has dissipated.

Over the course of time, correctly executing these types of plays can add huge equity to your play. So, when you see a hand, think about the decisions the player made. What was the thought process that drove him to his conclusions? How will his thought process affect future decisions? How can you exploit those decisions? With practice you’ll find that many players have similar thinking patterns.

Getting into their head will go a long way in learning how to read situations. And when you can do that well, you’re on the path to prosperity. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally prior to becoming a successful for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage, his office number is 702-376-1515 or e-mail [email protected]. Their website is www.RoyCooke.com where you can visit Roy’s Poker Room for his poker writings. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @Real RoyCooke.