Analyzing Flop Textures and Assessing Hand Strength in Short Deck Hold’em

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As soon as the flop comes down it is a vital skill to quickly analyze its texture and assess your relative hand strength based upon that and other key factors, such as the number of players in the pot, and their ranges.

Let’s examine what we should be thinking about on the flop.

Flop Texture Examples

Board: A 10 8

So just to test everyone, what is the very first thing you need to say to yourself once you see this flop? “Aces are fives,” of course! When you are new to the game it is very important to acknowledge this when you see an ace on board or in your hand.

Next item to consider is what strong made hands are possible on this flop and who may possibly hold them. On this particular board no straights or flushes are possible so the strong made hands would be sets or two pairs. In a limped pot, someone probably does not have a set of aces unless an early position player limped with them in an attempt to trap. However, all other sets and two pair combinations are possible.
Perhaps you can get a read that a tight early position player is somewhat unlikely to hold A-8 or 10-8 but that’s about it.

After that we should consider the number and quality of draws that may be present. There is no flush draw, however, there are three different holdings (Q-J, J-9, and 9-7) that have straight draws with eight outs. It is important to be able to recognize any of the possibly sneaky double belly buster straight draws that may be out there in addition to the more obvious open ended variety. Then of course there are also some gut shot straight draws possible: K-Q, K-J, Q-9, and 7-6. However, limpers are less likely to hold the weaker Q-9 and 7-6 hands particularly from early position.

Without knowledge of any other cards it is important to know that there are many more combinations of draws than made hands:

Combos

Q-J, J-9, 9-7 - 48
A-10, A-8, 10-8 - 27
A-A, 10-10, 8-8 — 9

However, the cards you hold will obviously change the number of available combinations. For example, if you hold A-K the table would be revised as follows:

Combos

Q-J, J-9, 9-7 - 48
A-10, A-8, 10-8 - 21
A-A, 10-10, 8-8 — 7

Against the eight out straight draws you have approximately 54-58 percent equity. Against A-10 you have around 30 percent equity and approximately 45 percent against either A-8 or 10-8. Obviously you don’t want to see the dude roll over a set but against 10-10 and 8-8 you have 12 percent although these hands are way less likely and in most cases we can probably completely discount the one combination of A-A.

Let’s look at an example of how we would use this information. Suppose it is a six-handed game where everyone has 100 antes. An early position player limps and we make a 5x the button double ante raise (i.e. ten antes) from the cutoff with A K. A loose aggressive player calls on the button and the limper also calls so there are 36 antes in the pot before the flop is dealt.

The board comes the aforementioned A 10 8 and we bet 24 antes (two-thirds pot) because our hand is strong on this board and giving out free cards in this situation can’t be considered. Optimal bet sizing is tricky. A smaller bets allows more inferior hands to call but if many hands including gut-shots are priced in all turn cards other than an ace may create problems. But a bigger bet may just shut everything out except hands that beat us and leaves no room for fancy plays to be made by opponents.

Anyhow after we bet the loose aggressive player moves all in and the other player folds. What does his range look like? Given that he is a loose player and was getting good odds on the button he probably has all of the hands in the above table. He would certainly jam the strong made hands but there is a very good chance he is raising the strong straight draws as well. This is a fundamentally sound strong play as is targeting weak aces, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, Q-10, and J-10 in the hopes of getting a fold. He shouldn’t be concerned about the other player because he’s in a nice situation with a strong draw versus two made hands that may be blocking each other’s outs to further improve.

Whether we would or should be betting all of the above hands in this situation is another topic for perhaps another time, however, there is more incentive to bet those hands in Short Deck than in regular hold’em due to equities running closer and there are no true blanks in the deck.

Based upon all of this we should snap call off our remaining 66 antes as we only require 31 percent equity to make a profitable call. And if you recall we have 30 percent against A-10 which is close to the top of his range. If he’s a true LAG he may even show you K-Q or K-J.

Board: K Q 7

On this board the types of strong made hands depends heavily on the preflop action. In a raised pot K-K, Q-Q, K-Q, A-A, and A-K are all in the range of the raiser. In a limped pot all of those hands are unlikely although you can encounter some of them especially K-Q. In both limped and raised pots K-7 and Q-7 are often folded even when they are suited.

For draws we have the obvious flush draw that all players are less likely to have and J-10 is the only eight out straight draw.

Thus in a limped pot we have a decently strong holding especially when considering card removal when we have hands such as A-K, K-J, K-10, and A-Q. Most of these hands should be bet even with multiple players left to act.

Board: J 10 7

This board makes for a possible straight, several sets, and two pair for someone holding J-10 regardless of whether the pot was raised or not. J-7 and 10-7 are not commonly played hands, however, in limped pots the suited versions are a possibility and the button with a random hand could also have them.

In addition to the flush draw, K-Q, Q-9, K-9, and 8-6 have eight out straight draws. With everything going on with this board a top pair type of hand has a lot less value.

Board: A A 10

Paired boards offer the possible quads, full houses, and trips. No draws are to be found except for gut shots with K-J and K-Q.

On flops such as these you can make some plays at the pot with K-Q and K-J and bet to protect your equity with hands such as K-10 should your hand currently be good. There are so many combinations of playable hands that totally whiff this flop and unless someone has an ace or 10-10 they will usually just go away. “Zero equity” bluffs may even be profitable in right situations.

Equity Denial

Denying your opponents their share of equity while maximizing your own is a very important concept in Short Deck Hold’em. We will explore that in more depth next issue with some examples of hands played at the 2018 Poker Masters $10,000 Short Deck final table. ♠

Kevin Haney is a former actuary of MetLife but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. He is co-owner of Elite Fitness Club in Oceanport, NJ and is a certified personal trainer. With regards to poker he got his start way back in 2003 and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. His new mixed-games website Counting Outs is a great starting resource for a plethora of games ranging from the traditional to the exotic. He can be reached at [email protected].