We All Overrate Ourselves

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You may have heard of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. It is a scientific description of a common component of human nature, where we routinely overrate our abilities. In fact, what DKE shows is the less we know about something, the MORE we overrate our abilities. This applies to all activities and areas of knowledge.

For example, you ask somebody how well they play golf. They tell you they are a bogey golfer and typically shoot about 90. In most cases, they are more likely to shoot 100 or higher. They have overrated themselves. But there is a limit to the DKE. It is pretty much impossible for this 100 shooter to believe they are just as good as the professionals on the PGA tour. They can fool themselves, but only so far. The reality of their skill level is too apparent for them to overrate themselves that much.

Poker is a perfect storm environment for the DKE. Because there is so much short-term variance (luck) involved, it is possible, and even commonplace, for a poker player to think they are a top-flight, world-class player, despite years of evidence to the contrary.

Going back to the golf analogy, there are players whose poker skill is comparable to a total hack golfer, and yet they honestly believe they are just as good as the top pros. These players simply ascribe every losing pot to bad luck, and every winning pot to their skill.

One time a seminar student told me that if his luck would just break even for one month, he would win a ton of money, and move up to the big games. And he made it clear he didn’t need to run good for that month, but just have average luck. I asked him how long he had been playing. He told me 10 years. This player honestly believed that for 120 consecutive months, he had lost a coin flip, and his luck for that month had been below average. You are more likely to correctly pick the winning Powerball numbers four times in a row, than to lose 120 straight coin flips. Yet, this is what he believed.

For over 17 years now I have been teaching poker to my students. In addition to private lessons, and the publication of my book, I have taught numerous live seminars. Frequently, the students at these seminars did not pay out of pocket to attend. Rather, they won the seminar seat through a promotion at the card room hosting the seminar. As a result, I have had dozens of students tell me they shouldn’t even be at the seminar, because they already “know everything about no-limit holdem.” This is an example of why DKE exists. You can’t know what you don’t know. Some people assume they know it all.

My full-day seminar typically consists of about three hours of lecture in the morning, a lunch break, and then four or more hours of live hand labs in the afternoon. In these labs, I am the dealer, and the students play against each other as if it were a real game. When they fold, I ask them to keep their cards on the rail. When the hand finishes, we go over each decision and provide feedback and critique for the students. I often ask them to guess each other’s cards before we see them, and always ask why they made each decision in the hand. This lets us all learn a lot more about what goes into optimal decision-making.

At the end of the day, the know-it-all students often rave about how much they learned. They say things like, “I learned so much, and didn’t think you could teach me anything.” When they say they didn’t think I could teach them, they were not saying I couldn’t teach them, as compared to some other instructor. What they meant is nobody could teach them anything, because they thought they already knew it all.

But think about that. Imagine you were the world’s foremost expert on Geology, and that you literally know more about Geology than any person who has ever lived. Would you believe you know everything there is to know about Geology? Of course not. Even though you know more than anybody else, you also understand that there is so much more still to learn, nobody will ever know it all, as there is always more being discovered.

The same is true for poker. No matter how much you know, or how well you play, there is always more to learn, and more to discover. You can always get better. Learning is not a race with a finish line. It is a lifelong pursuit of growth and discovery.

If you think you know it all, that is a sure sign you really don’t know much at all. Scientists have shown that we all tend to overrate ourselves. Make sure you don’t fall into that trap with your poker game. Always strive to improve. Study as much as you can. The more time and money you spend on improving your game, the more money you will win when playing. Putting in the work will always pay more than it costs.
Have fun, and play smart! ♠

Greg Raymer is the 2004 World Series of Poker main event champion, winner of numerous major titles, and has more than $7 million in earnings. He recently authored FossilMan’s Winning Tournament Strategies, available from D&B Publishing, Amazon, and other retailers. He is sponsored by Blue Shark Optics, YouStake, and ShareMyPair. To contact Greg please tweet @FossilMan or visit his website.