Who Can I Value Bet? Who Can I Bluff?

When you sit down at a poker table it is important that you ask yourself two key questions:
Who can I value bet? Who can I bluff?

Usually, you can categorize casual players into either category. Players who have a hard time folding are excellent value bet candidates. Players who are at least aspiring to take the game more seriously are better candidates for a bluff.

There are other factors that can put the odds in your favor. How early of a position your opponent is playing from can inform your decision. If someone has raised or cold called from an earlier position it is going to be more difficult to bluff them.

Why? Because they are likely starting with a stronger hand range.

However, if someone is flatting you from the button with a wide range, they can be an easier bluff candidate. Additionally, if someone calls you out of the big blind then they are also playing a wider range. These players can also be easier to bluff.

Ranges aside, most players are not perfectly balanced. Everyone at a live card table is human. All humans make mistakes. They either fold too much or call too much. 

Most players call too much at lower stakes. Calling is more fun. It’s a freeroll to look like a genius. If you call on the river and get shown the winner, you can muck your hand. No harm, no foul, no embarrassment. However, if you catch someone bluffing it is a huge thrill. You get to show your sick call down to the whole table. Back pats are in order.

Seeing flops is even more fun. When the flop comes out, you’re not thinking about your day at work or problems at home. Anything can happen.

People who show up at the cardroom are there to play poker. If they wanted to watch poker being played, they would have stayed at home and watched YouTube. They are predisposed to playing too many hands.

How can you exploit this? Be warned, the answer is basic and boring.

Nits beat stations, stations beat maniacs, and maniacs beat nits. 

The basic way to beat a station is to play hands just a tick better than what they are playing.

For example, K-J offsuit isn’t a great hand, but if your opponent likes to play J-8 suited, then K-J offsuit might become a hand you want to reraise. You can then continuation bet the flop if you miss, because if he bricks the board he will likely fold, especially out of position. He has less incentive to pursue you when he already satisfied his curiosity of seeing the flop.

However, once he calls you on the flop, you have to trust that he likely has at least a pair, and he does not want to fold it. The entire reason he called you preflop is so that he could see if he hit the flop. Once he gets his hand, he wants to make his stand.

The way you exploit these players who call too much is to keep most of your bluffs to the flop. If you hit your hand or have a good pocket pair, you can value bet viciously.
This strategy works well versus the 80% of the cardroom who raises too many hands, cold calls too much preflop, and refuses to fold post-flop.

The reason people do not want to play this solid style versus stations is because it requires us to be extremely patient. Hours can go by without us getting a good spot. And then when a spot does develop, it is entirely possible that our opponent hits a ridiculous two pair on the river. This leaves us wondering why we should even bother playing such a disciplined style if such bad play gets rewarded.

We have to resist this siren song. Solid, aggressive poker has created champions for decades for a reason. It is because nits beat stations. The vast majority of the playing public fits the station moniker.

How can you tell which player in your cardroom calls too much or folds too much? You can usually spot each player based on how much time they need to play post-flop.

If a player is comfortable with folding early and often, that is someone who has committed themselves to disciplined play. You will likely be able to get them to fold in a key pot later.

If your opponents are sticking around in each hand and taking their time before folding on later streets, then it’s likely you have found someone who desperately wants to call down whenever they do hit something. If they start seeming a little impatient, then press your decent pairs for big value.

Most of your money is going to come from scoring thin river value bets. River bets are the largest bets in no-limit hold’em. It’s hard to capture them with a bluff.

Theoretically, you could raise a thin river bet as a bluff and capture the bet that way, but that situation doesn’t come around that often. The most common way you can secure the biggest bets in hold’em the most often is through thin betting.

However, remember, maniacs beat nits. If you’re playing a disciplined player, you don’t have to be a nit anymore. You can unleash the beast versus this player. They’ll likely give you credit because they’ve seen you largely show down good hands.

When a disciplined player calls you out of the big blind, that tends to be their widest range. They’re just completing a bet and they’re getting better pot odds, so they play more hands. When they play this many weak hands, they largely flop weak pairs. If you bet into them multiple times post-flop, they’ll often revert back to their disciplined play and fold those weaker hands.

The next time you play, try all these plays out. Ask yourself who is calling too much and who is folding too much. Separate all your opponents between those two categories in the first 30 to 60 minutes you play. Then, spend the rest of the time trying to exploit your reads. ♠

Learn how to play A-K when it misses the flop!

Alexander Fitzgerald is a professional poker player and bestselling author who currently lives in Denver, Colorado. He is a WPT and EPT final tablist, and has WCOOP and SCOOP wins online. His most recent win was the $250,000 Guaranteed on America’s Cardroom. He currently enjoys blasting bums away in Ignition tournaments while he listens to death metal. Free training packages of his are provided to new newsletter subscribers who sign up at PokerHeadRush.com