Pure Steals In Seven Card Stud

Poker begins as a battle over the antes, and the structure of the antes in your Seven Card Stud game will have a direct impact on how your opponents will play and influence many of your decisions at the table.

As previously discussed, structures are often categorized by comparing the size of ante to the lower betting limit, and the resulting percentage typically falls within a range of 10-25%. For example, a $10-$20 game with a $1 ante (10% structure) would be considered a low-ante game, while $40-$80 with a $10 ante (25% structure) would generally be classified as a high-ante game.

In a high-ante game you must play more holdings, attack the antes at a greater frequency, and aggressively defend against opponents trying to steal. In contrast, within a low-ante game there is less stealing (and re-stealing) and players more often have the hands they are representing.

In a six-handed $40-$80 game with a $10 bring-in, a completion with a weak hand is risking $40 to win $70 and only needs to work 36% of the time to book an instant profit. In contrast, a steal-raise in a six handed $10-$20 game with a $3 bring-in is risking $10 to win $9, which corresponds to a higher required success rate of 53%.

Generally, there is less thievery taking place in low-ante games due to the less advantageous risk-versus-reward ratio, and also because the average players inhabiting them tend to be more passive.

Most players consider a 20% structure to be the sweet spot where there is a proper balance between loose and tight play, providing the best overall experience for the players. If the ante is too high, the game may seem like it is too much of a crapshoot, and if it is too low the action may be lacking.

$75-$150 Stud with a $15 ante results in a 20% percentage, and is a popular structure spread in several card rooms.

All that being said, the structure of a game by itself does not indicate how profitable a game may be, as that depends on the lineup and the mistakes that they tend to make. It’s not hard to beat a low-ante game where our opponents are too loose, but we can also achieve a good win rate in a high-ante game if the players are too tight and fail to defend aggressively enough.

Rake is an issue at the lower limits; however it can be overcome when your opponents are generally passive and going too far with their hands.

As it directly impacts the size of the pot, we must always be cognizant of the number of players at the table. The chart below depicts how often a steal must succeed to be instantly profitable based upon the ante structure and the number of players dealt into the hand: Players Dealt in Hand

As we can see, our steals must work more often when there are fewer dealt into the hand, and this aspect can sometimes slow the action in short-handed Stud games. This is the main drawback of all Stud variants, especially in mixed-game rotations as players will often choose to take their break during this round. In contrast, the flop games always have the same amount of money in the middle to fight over, regardless of the number of people dealt into the hand.

A Pure Steal Example

Most often when trying to steal the ante one should select hands that have decent potential when called, or are able to profitably call a re-raise. But sometimes a pure steal situation is too good to pass up. Consider the following example taken from a replay of a $2,000 online Stud High tournament played out years ago.

It was an eight-handed table, and the stakes were 35,000-70,000 with a 7,000 ante (20% structure).

A 2 brought it in for 10,500, the next four upcards folded (5, 10, 3, 4), and a player holding (3 9) Q completed the bet with only a 9 and 3 left to act.

It should be clear that this open was made primarily based upon the strength of the situation, and not his holding. Many threes, nines, and diamonds were dead, cards that remaining players left could have used in order to continue.

Hero was risking 35,000 to win 66,500, a wager that only needed to work 34% of the time to book a profit. Approximately how often will it get through? That is highly dependent on the opponents, but we can take a shot at estimating it reflecting the cards that are out, which in turn influences their continuing frequencies.

If we assume that the remaining players require at least a pair, a three flush, or any three connected cards, the approximate probabilities of getting through the three opponents left to act are as follows:

9- 75%
3 – 83%
2 – 73%

Probability of the steal getting through = (75%)(83%)(73%) = 45%

As we can see, considering Hero’s blockers and the cards showing, it’s quite likely that this was a profitable theft attempt.

It’s possible an aggressive opponent may realize that this is a prime stealing situation and re-raise with more hands, but it’s probably more likely that their defending ranges were tighter than what was assumed above. For example, would the 3 always defend with a pair of threes (with an unhelpful kicker) when there is another three out?

Our opponents will not always defend with a weak pair or draw, and on the occasions Hero’s complete was just called, he will catch a queen on fourth street around 7% of the time. In this high-stakes event, the 9 and 3 will often defend by re-raising, but not always. However, the bring-in will most often defend by calling in order to balance their range.

When Hero gets re-raised he can simply fold. And when just called, he should typically refrain from continuing his aggression unless he’s lucky enough to either pair up, or catch a scare card (i.e. A) while his opponent appears to not help. When on a relatively “zero equity” steal, getting foolishly determined on the later streets can quickly erode the profitability of the initial third street theft attempt.

In some ways, I view stealing on third and potentially deciding to keep the heat on future streets like a boxing match. Keep constant pressure on your opponents with your jabs, but don’t leave yourself too open to a counter-attack by making well-timed retreats when necessary.

Kevin Haney is a former actuary but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. The certified personal trainer owned a gym in New Jersey, but has since moved to Las Vegas. He started playing the game back in 2003, and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. Learn more or just say hello with an email to [email protected].