PokerCoaching: Rivering The Effective Nuts

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You are eight-handed playing a $300 buy-in online tournament. You have a 15,000 stack with the blinds at 50-100. It folds around to the small blind who makes a minimum raise to 200. You are in the big blind holding 10 3.

Question 1: Should you fold, call, or re-raise to 825?

Answer: Folding is out of the question, as we want to defend the big blind all of your suited hands against a min-raise in heads-up pots. This hand should never be three-bet for value, and it is a terrible candidate as a bluff because it doesn’t contain any relevant blockers like an ace or a king. Calling is the ideal option.

You call, making the pot 400. The flop comes Q 5 4 and your opponent checks.

Question 2: Should you check, bet 200, or bet 400?

Answer: While you have a draw that has decent equity, you also have 10-high, which means checking is the worst option. Betting accomplishes two goals. You get to bet your equity and start building a pot for when you hit your draw, and betting also allows you to generate some fold equity to give yourself a chance to win the pot immediately.
For both of these reasons, betting small is the preferred option. The range of hands your opponent continues with does not change significantly when facing a 200 or 400 bet, so betting 200 limits your risk while maintaining all of the upside of betting.

You bet 200 and your opponent calls, making the pot 800. The turn is the 10 and your opponent checks.

Question 3: Should you check, bet 350, or bet 800?

Answer: You improved to second pair, which gives you many options. Checking adds a layer of deception as you are now somewhat likely to have the best hand. If you check, you allow our opponent to run some bluffs on the river that you can pick off. Conversely, betting your hand that is likely good for value is a decent idea. If we are going to bet, a smaller size is in order as it keeps our opponent’s range as wide as possible.

So, the two best options are checking or betting 350 with a very slight preference toward betting for value. However, in this hand, you elected to disguise your hand by checking.

You check back. The river is the K, giving you a flush. Your opponent checks.

Question 4: Should you check, bet 400, bet 800, or bet 1,700?

Answer: You have gone from a marginal value hand to an incredibly strong value which means the only question you should ask yourself is ‘"how much can I get":https://pokercoaching.com/blog/value-betting-in-poker/ out of my opponent?’ While your instinct might be to bet 400 (50% pot), it’s important to realize that your opponent is likely to call both 400 and 800 with a very similar range. Therefore, the larger bet of the 800 (100% pot) is a much better option because it provides more value with little downside.

Note that an overbet of 1,700 (200%+ pot) will likely have a significant impact on the range of hands your opponent will call with. However, against the right opponent, an overbet may look very much like a bluff and result in an even higher payoff.

You elect to blast it, betting 1,700. Your opponent thinks for a while before folding. ♠

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