Poker Strategy With Roy Cooke: Value and Risk

There are more intricate decisions in no-limit than limit. Two critical components, made more complicated by the option to bet-size are: optimizing your value and lowering your assumption of risk.

It was a Saturday night $2-$5 no-limit game at the Venetian. The game was on, several tourists were drinking and splashing. I’d been playing that line-up pretty straightforwardly without making many creative plays or catching many hands. Of course, that showed to anyone who was observant. I knew I was predictable in the minds of my opponents and was planning on utilizing their thoughts in a future bluff play. I was patiently waiting and would pick my spot well!

But low and behold, $715 deep, I picked up two red aces. A heavily drinking tourist limped in from under the gun, the next player folded. Keanu, a Las Vegas seasoned pro, $1,400 deep, made it $25 to go. I was next to act. I considered flatting with the intent of rehitting a three-bettor behind, but with a pro raising and my tight image calling behind; those circumstances would narrow our opponent’s three-betting range. I didn’t want to make a play that was incongruent with my current image, one more conducive to actualizing a successful bluff than acquiring action on a strong hand. That said, I was happy to have picked up my aces, and, like in life, you have to play the hand you’re dealt in the situation you are in!

I resolved to play it straightforwardly and made it $85, knowing I would be read for a strong hand and wasn’t likely to get much action. Everyone folded to the button, who tanked and mucked, exposing the K. It folded around to Keanu, who called the $60. We took the flop heads-up, $180 in the pot.

I caught a favorable flop. At least I thought I did, the K 10 5, providing me with an overpair and nut flush draw. Of additional note, the K made it very unlikely that Keanu would hold a king. He just wouldn’t call with any kings in his range, and I also thought he’d be less likely to slowplay K-K. He checked to me, and I pondered my move.

I decided to bet $70, feeling his range was weak against that board. I had the A. The King and 10 were on the board eliminating much of his potential flush range. Yeah, he could conceivably have a 8 7 texture of hand, but he’d have to have raised a likely caller with weak position and then called a raise from a player he would read for a strong range. All that considered, I didn’t think a flopped flush was much of his range. More likely, I thought his flop calling range would be a Q-Q or J-J texture holding with a diamond.

All that went out the window when Keanu check-raised me to $270. I recalibrated my thoughts. What’s his check-raising range? What was he thinking? I first considered his thoughts. He’d read me for a strong preflop range, and while he wouldn’t call with a king, the information wasn’t available to me when I raised, so he would think I could have a king. With my image being what it was, I doubted he would think it likely I would three-bet him with A Q or A J preflop and then bet it on the flop. I’d made a weak flop bet. I thought he would put my range on a lot of one pair hands, some with a diamond and some without. His legitimate hand range was small, no kings, few flushes and no two-pair hands. I questioned if he’d have raised the UTG opponent with 5-5. His legitimate range seemed to be a set of tens and scarce flushes, both of which I was about 2-1 against.

Would he semibluff with a non-nut diamond? Maybe if he held a pair too, but… Would he bluff? I thought he might. Though, with my possessing the A, it removed a lot of his bluffing range from his holdings. That said, with my tight image and likelihood to hold one pair and also not necessarily possess a diamond, a bluff might make good sense to him. And Keanu was the texture of opponent with the testicular fortitude to make a check-raise bluff!

I tanked. At this point, I felt I had had three options. I could call and see if the board paired and then fold if it did? But I might lose action if a diamond came, or fold a positive EV draw if he held a flush and the board paired. It would add value if he double-barreled a bluff, but??? I dismissed that option.

If I called the $200, I’d have $360 left. And the pot would be $720. Should Keanu wager the $360 on the turn, the pot would lay me $1,080-$360 or 3-1, a bet I’d likely call. I didn’t like the fold option because it lost to his bluff range. I shoved, and he insta-called and turned over 10-10 for the set, the hand I knew was most of his range.

The hand ran out 9-9 and he filled. I tossed my aces into the muck. I’d actualized a $880-560 bet as about a 2-1 dog, not the numbers one is looking for! But at the point of the decision I included some bluffs in his range that would sweeten the price. So, even though I knew his most likely hand was a set of tens, I felt justified in my shove.

After the hand, I reflected back on my play and felt I misplayed my hand. In retrospect, I felt I should have checked the flop. Keanu had a mostly weak range. My hand wasn’t very vulnerable to giving away a free card. The king on the flop was a dead card. If I checked, it would induce more bluffs into Keanu’s turn betting range and conceivably give me more value against the weaker portion of his range. Better value, plus a lower assumption of risk!

The hand speaks to the complications of analyzing your hand’s value in differing play approaches. We all make errors along these lines, but if you think about them while playing your hands, your decisions will improve.

And if you reanalyze your play after every hand, you’ll learn from your mistakes. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.RoyCooke.com. Roy’s blogs and poker tips are at www.RoyCookePokerlv.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke

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