DraftKings: Week 13 NFL DFS PicksHere's Some Daily Fantasy Sports Tips From An Expert |
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Throughout the NFL season, my writing in this space has been a mix of cash game strategy and tournament strategy. The goal has been to highlight the idea that different types of contests often require wildly different strategies. Fundamentally, the more top-heavy the payout is, the more beneficial it is to use a contrarian strategy. By identifying and using players who have low ownership percentages, you give yourself a better chance to come out on top of a large field than by using the “chalk” plays in your lineup.
This week, I’m going to identify what I believe the chalk will be on DraftKings. These are players that likely have a lot of value, but will also be some of the highest owned players at their position come Sunday. For cash games, these can be staples of your lineups. For tournaments, consider avoiding them altogether.
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QB
Cam Newton ($7,400) – Cam has been white hot and the Panthers come in just barely behind the Patriots for the highest scoring projection of the week. While I think Cam will be the chalk, I’m personally a little less bullish on him. Pro Football Focus’ Pat Thorman has been banging the drum about Carolina’s up-tempo strategy at home that doesn’t continue on the road. In turn, Cam has been dominant at home this season but pretty pedestrian on the road. While the Saints look like the best matchup in the league for an opposing quarterback, they are playing their first home game under a new defensive coordinator this week. Newton seems like a fine play to me this week, but I probably prefer Ben Roethlisberger and the $800 in savings he offers on DraftKings this week.
RB
Deangelo Williams ($5,600) – Williams has it all going for him this week, assuming Roethlisberger clears the league’s concussion protocol and is able to play. Even if Roethlisberger sits this one out, Williams will be a chalky play at just $5,600. With so much uncertainty at the running back position from week to week, Williams is a steady hand who plays 90 plus percent of the snaps for his team. He’s the receiving back, the goal-line back, the feature back. He plays on one of the best offenses in the league. And he has a good matchup. Like I said, he has it all going for him this week.
WR
Alshon Jeffery ($6,900) – It’s fairly inexplicable that Alshon keeps hovering in this price range around the 15th most expensive receiver on DraftKings. The guy is an absolute stud and has a dream matchup this week at home against a San Francisco team that’s been torched in each game away from home this year. Alshon could be $8,000 this week and would still be the chalk. At $6,900, he’s a total no brainer.
TE
Scott Chandler ($2,500) – DFS is a weird beast, man. Sometimes, situations pop up where you have to just shrug your shoulders and say, well, I barely know who this is, but I’d better use him on my DFS teams this week. For many fans and DFS players, Chandler fits that bill this week. While he’s had a reasonable career thus far, Chandler is far from a household name. He does, however, project to be one of Tom Brady’s main targets with Rob Gronkowski likely to miss the game this Sunday at home against the Eagles. He also costs the stone minimum $2,500 at the always tricky tight end position. You could certainly do worse than Chandler this week.
Thanks for reading, everyone. Find me on Twitter @IanJ300 with any questions.
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