New Report Provides Evidence That Poker is a Game of SkillCigital's Study Analyzed 103 Million Online Poker Hands |
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The report analyzed 103 million hands that were played in cash games at minimum stakes of $0.10-$0.20 on PokerStars in December 2008 and the first two days of January 2009. Citigal’s report concluded with two major findings:
a) The vast majority of hands (about 75 percent) played never reach a showdown, where one or more players had to show the contents of his holecards to win the pot.
b) Even when there was a showdown, only 50 percent of those pots were won by the best possible hand provided everyone had played until the end. Meaning, half of the time there was a showdown, the player who would’ve won had already folded.
The study’s authors, Paco Hope and Dr. Sean McCulloch, claimed that the analysis provided statistical evidence that poker is a game of skill, as opposed to luck.
“If the hand didn’t have a showdown, the cards didn’t pick the winner in that game,” said Hope, the technical manager for Cigital.
“Any time you make a decision that affects the outcome of the hand, you’re using skill in some way,” said McCulloch, an associate professor of mathematics and computer science at Ohio Wesleyan University. “The fact that you’re coming up with strategy (to force other players to fold) is a skill-based activity.”
The study was funded by PokerStars, one of several companies that Cigital works with in the gaming industry. According to Hope, Cigital has also certified Full Tilt Poker’s random number generator.
While Cigital is actively involved in the gaming industry, Managing Principle Brian Mizelle said that the company works in a variety of industries.
“We work with a lot of companies in the financial industry, the communications industry — basically across most industries,” said Mizelle.
Hope downplayed any perception of conflict of interest that might exist for Cigital conducting the study for PokerStars.
“All they did was say, ‘We want you to do this analysis,’ and then they stepped back and said to tell them what we wanted,” said Hope.
The report is already being praised by the Poker Players Alliance, the non-profit membership organization committed to establishing favorable laws for poker players.
“As a poker player, I can tell you that knowing when to hold or fold is not based solely on the cards that are dealt, but a series of decisions based on skill and the actions taken by the other players,” said Alfonse D’Amato, PPA Chairman and the former Republican Senator from New York. “This study provides the raw data to back up the compelling arguments made by poker players around the world that it’s skill, not pure luck, that determines the outcome of this game.”
PPA Executive Director John Pappas echoes D’Amato’s sentiments.
“I think this is a great study that the PPA will be able to use not only in courtrooms, but also on Capitol Hill,” said Pappas, confirming that the organization had already used these findings in an amicus brief in their highly publicized South Carolina trial, where a judge determined that poker was a game of skill.
Hope said that Cigital was looking into doing similar studies in the future, mentioning possibly analyzing a few years’ worth of Sunday Million tournaments on PokerStars and seeing if the results are similar.
For more details about the report, read Card Player’s interview with one of the authors of the study.
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