Dogs to Bark in NCAA Tourney?

This issue of Card Player is out just in time for some of the most exciting games of the NCAA basketball tournament. With the "Sweet Sixteen" and "Elite Eight" rounds of action to be played March 22-25, and the "Final Four" set for the ensuing week, there will be just enough time to savor some of the best college basketball of the season.

As an avid and longtime sports handicapper, these are fun times, as you get to match wits with the oddsmakers, seeing if you know a team or two better than they do, and seeing if you can find a game or two in which the percentages warrant a substantial wager. You can never know that until you see the line on the specific games. However, as I've mentioned on these pages many times before, it always helps to have a little background to help take some of the guesswork out of the handicapping process. So, let's use a little hindsight and see where the edges have turned out to be in some of the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games of the recent past.

If the last three years are any indication, it's best to first look at the underdogs in those two rounds. In the last three NCAA tournaments, underdogs in the Sweet Sixteen have gone 15-7-1 against the spread (one game was a pick 'em affair). And in the last three tourneys, underdogs are 8-4 in the Elite Eight.

There are very sensible reasons for this breakout. Let's consider some of them.

In the first place, all of the teams reaching the Sweet Sixteen are high-quality teams. All of the South Carolina States and Mount St. Marys are usually eliminated by then, unless they can really play. And, as always, when two high-quality opponents clash, there is a greater chance for a straight-up win by the underdog. In the first place, teams get to the Sweet Sixteen by winning two NCAA tournament games, and you usually need some quality big men, good guards, good defense, at least average shooting ability, and a good coach in order to do that.

Second, in reaching the Sweet Sixteen, teams have lots of time to study and prepare for their opponent, sometimes four or five days. You know the coaches are burning the midnight oil looking for weaknesses in their next opponent, and you know the players are paying extra attention in practice.

Third, the pressure of NCAA tourney games often makes it difficult for one team to pull substantially ahead of the other. Most contests at the NCAA tourney level tend to be more half-court oriented than regular-season games. That's only natural with so much at stake. The players and coaches feel extra pressure. The ball often becomes a little "heavier" for the shooters. And with all of the television timeouts, it can be difficult for one team to pull substantially ahead of the other, and to stay there. Good coaches whose teams are trailing have lots of opportunities to rally their troops.

Fourth, there has been increasing parity in the college game in recent years. Great college players tend to move on to the NBA after just one or two years. So, it's harder for college coaches to build and groom a dominant team. In recent years, Arizona won a national title with a freshman point guard (Mike Bibby). And that Wildcat team finished fifth in the Pac-10 standings that season. Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett never even played college ball. Mateen Cleaves (not a great NBA prospect) stayed all four years at Michigan State, and his ability as a floor general was a key factor in the Spartans' title drive last year.

Fifth, the "public," overall, still generally feels more comfortable betting on favorites. Fans are more familiar with the favorites, and they tend to trust them more than they do the underdogs. And when it comes to the NCAA tourney, the oddsmakers know there is going to be more public action on each game than for any college regular-season game. It's the time for those who set the odds to keep the "prices" at least a little high on the favorites.

Those are substantial reasons why underdogs are a combined 23-11-1 in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight in the past three NCAA tourneys. How have the dogs fared in the Final Four and "Final Two" in the same period? Good question. The answer is, not very well: 4-5 against the spread. But that is a very small number of trials. And, when it comes down to the last few games, you can tend to get a little of the "championship game syndrome." That happens when a team has established its superiority and keeps piling on the points, trying to minimize any chance that a respected opponent might make a comeback. And the trailing team tends to become a little desperate and depressed in the closing minutes of the contest when it becomes evident that its hopes of a championship have been dashed. This syndrome occurs very frequently in NFL conference championship games and the Super Bowl, where games are often one-sided at the end after a big buildup.

It will be interesting to see this year if the dogs continue to hold the edge in rounds three and four of the NCAA tourney. Good luck.

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