Midseason Totals Checkup

A few months ago, I issued an "alert" regarding totals betting for the upcoming baseball season. The main focus was the much-discussed larger strike zone that was intended to be enforced this season.

The "new" strike zone (which is basically a return to the "old" strike zone of the days of Koufax, Drysdale, Marichal, Gibson, and so on) is intended to go from the knees to midway between the belt and the shoulders, rather than the old, smaller zone from the knees to the belt, as umpires had increasingly grown accustomed to calling it over the past few decades. In some consideration for the hitters, umpires were instructed to avoid calling the low, outside strike (sometimes a virtually unhittable pitch that's six inches off the ground and four inches off the plate). Many crafty pitchers with good control (such as Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine) had become masters of the "wide" strike, often being able to induce veteran umpires to widen their strike zone as a game progressed.

Unlike previous seasons, in which umpires were instructed by memos, advisories, and such to bring their personal strike zones into line, the big mucky-mucks of baseball thought they had a good chance of enforcing a greater measure of uniformity this year. That's because, after the ill-fated umpire resignations of a couple of seasons ago, all the umpires are now under singular control and work both leagues (rather than just the American or just the National), and many of the older, stubborn, often-intransigent umpires have lost their jobs and been replaced by younger, more malleable umps who are willing to toe the line as spelled out by their superiors.

To emphasize the point, major-league baseball operations personnel sponsored a preseason instructional period for all umpires and teams. And, to follow up, baseball officials have hired a new precision-technology company to track pitches in games and give umpires periodic reviews/critiques of their performances.

I pointed out in early April that the new strike zone might have a significant effect on many pitching and hitting performances, and advised a careful watch for such effects early in the season.

Here's a brief review of totals results through the first two and a half months of the season (using the midday line for night games). Overall, the "unders" have easily outdistanced the "overs" this year. In the National League, there have been 218 "overs," 230 "unders," and 27 consensus "pushes." In the American League, there have been 181 "overs," 206 "unders," and 12 consensus "pushes." In the first week of interleague play, the corresponding numbers are 29-36-6. All of those total to 428 "overs," 472 "unders," and 45 "pushes." This includes an 84-75-8 mark in National League day games, as several of the NL parks (San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Colorado) are usually more "hitter friendly" during the day; they're tougher to homer in during the night.

Early conclusion? The increased "application" of the high strike is having its desired effect, as orchestrators of major league baseball have cut down a little on the "Home Run Derby" games of the past three seasons by expanding the "postage stamp" strike zone. Walks per game are down; strikeouts are up. Runs are down; shutouts are up.

There is little question that the new, homer-friendly ballparks of recent years have generated more excitement and helped baseball recover from its near disastrous World Series-less season in 1994. Modern, fan-friendly stadiums in Baltimore, Cleveland, Texas, Colorado, Arizona, and Houston all have turned out to be "hitters" parks, with the runs often coming fast and furious. The dome in Tampa is also very cozy. New PacBell Park in San Francisco is not as blustery as Candlestick, and it has its short rightfield wall, which Barry Bonds is taking full advantage of this season. New stadiums this year in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee appear to be more "fair" to pitchers, but both are more hitter-friendly than the parks they replaced. Only the new stadiums in Seattle and Detroit have turned out to be better for pitchers than the parks they replaced (the concrete "bandbox" of the Kingdome, and Tiger Stadium, with its famous short rightfield overhang).

Last year, there were tests of the baseball itself, following concerns that the balls were "juiced" because they were wound tighter at a new Third World manufacturing facility. This year, second baseman Bret Boone of Seattle has 68 RBIs in 62 games; only once in nine previous years did he have more than 74 for an entire season!

Pitching staffs are still thin due to recent expansion. Pitchers have never been "babied" more, with five-man rotations and top starters such as Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson often pulled after seven innings of good work (a practice that would be anathema to the likes of Gibson and Drysdale).

The facts enumerated in the previous three paragraphs have all had an influence not only on higher totals being posted on games by oddsmakers, but on a continuing willingness by the wagering public to bet the "over."

Has the high strike of 2001 begun to significantly neutralize the hitters' edge? Early returns indicate so (but keep in mind, we said early returns, as the hot summer weather is just beginning). The high strike has definitely been an advantage so far for hard-throwing pitchers such as Martinez, Johnson, and Curt Schilling. A good high strike has always been hard to hit by the majority of big-league players ("give 'em the old high hard one"). Savvy control pitchers such as Brad Radke (only 10 walks in nearly three months), Greg Maddux, and Craig Reynolds have taken advantage by pitching upstairs to a hitter's weakness. In contrast, Tom Glavine (who loved the virtually unhittable wide, low strike because of his sinker and change-up) has struggled, walking 47 batters in less than half a season, after giving a free pass to only 65 hitters in all of 2000.

The bottom line for the handicapper? Don't be overinfluenced by the hitters' parks, "Home Run Derby," the "juiced" ball, expansion-thinned pitching staffs, or SportsCenter highlights. The overall percentages have still been with the "unders." The high strike is helping. And the oddsmaker is doing his job by setting totals high enough that many bettors who are prone to prefer "overs" are having a hard time cashing a lot of winning tickets.

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