Reality: What a Concept!

The new baseball season is under way. So, it's time for all amateur handicappers to remind themselves that it's what's happening on the field of play that should be the first and foremost input in your handicapping mix. What the baseball teams and players have done in the past, and what the teams and players are expected to do this season should be down the list.

I'm going to diverge a little bit from baseball here, using some examples from a different sport to make the point.

Last February, for the third straight year, a backup quarterback led his team to the Super Bowl championship! It was Tom Brady, who became the Super Bowl MVP after helping New England get an early lead and then directing the late drive that set up the last-second, game-winning field goal in the Patriots' 20-17 victory over St. Louis.

The year before, Trent Dilfer came off the bench near the middle of the season, replacing Tony Banks, and directed a "minimalist" offense as the Baltimore Ravens went all the way as a wild card entry, easily defeating the Giants in the Super Bowl.

Two years ago, some guy named Kurt Warner took over at QB for the Rams after prized free-agent signee Trent Green was lost for the season with a knee injury late in the exhibition schedule. Warner went on to win the regular-season MVP, the Super Bowl MVP, and the 2001 MVP, not to mention millions of dollars with a new contract and advertising endorsements.

The combined pointspread record of those three Super Bowl-winning teams in their title years was 41-14-3 (nearly 75 percent), with the Rams going 14-4-1 vs. the spread, the Ravens 14-5-1, and the Patriots 13-5-1. In fact, New England lost its first two games straight up and against the spread last season, then also lost star QB Drew Bledsoe for an extended period after Bledsoe suffered serious internal bleeding from a severed artery in the second game of the season. The Pats then went 13-3-1 vs. the spread with little-known second-year Michigan QB Tom Brady at the controls.

The point here is this: If you focused on the problems of the teams rather than their performance on the field, you missed some very high-percentage pointspread plays. The Rams went from worst to first in their championship run, finishing the previous season at 5-11. In 2000, the Patriots were 5-11. In 1999, Baltimore was a somewhat promising 8-8.

Going into last season, the NFL beat writer for the Los Angeles Times wrote the following as his 2001 capsule forecast for New England. "No Terry Glenn (out due to substance-abuse suspension). No offensive line. Start the countdown clock on Bill Belichick."

The Patriots are a prime example of how the fortunes of teams can change once things get under way on the field of play.

Now, back to baseball. No one was surprised when the New York Yankees made it back to the World Series last year. The Arizona Diamondbacks were a bit of a surprise, but the season-long performances of their two ace pitchers, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, certainly weren't surprises. However, finding betting value with them against the money line was difficult (but not impossible) for much of the season. Give the Yankees, Roger Clemens (won another Cy Young Award), Randy Johnson (so did he), and Schilling credit for performing up to their usual high standards. They did it on the field.

But there were plenty of other underachievers and overachievers to provide lots of profit in the 2001 baseball season for the observant handicapper. New York pitcher Orlando Hernandez ("El Duque") suffered from persistent arm problems virtually all season. Listed as 36 years old, the Cuban native with the somewhat mysterious past pitched as if 41 or 42 were more like it. He was a money burner for the Yankees, who, after a while, did not trust him to start, and his various replacements frequently struggled, as well.

The L.A. Dodgers and their formidable pitching rotation that included Kevin Brown, Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, and Andy Ashby were highly regarded. Brown, Dreifort, and Ashby all ended up having surgery, while Park disappointed team officials and was not re-signed to the big-bucks contract he wanted.

Meanwhile, the lowly Minnesota Twins in the American League got off to a good start and were contenders in the Central Division for much of the season, often providing excellent betting value against the odds. And the sensational Seattle Mariners, even without headline pitchers such as Clemens, Johnson, or Schilling, got off to a record start and just kept on winning until the postseason. Ichiro Suzuki came over from Japan and turned out to be even more than advertised, winning both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards.

So, remember to be very flexible in the baseball season, especially in the early going. Judge by performance "right now," not on past performance or preseason expectations. Games aren't won on paper, but on the field of play. Who is to say the 2002 Florida Marlins won't turn out to be this year's Seattle Mariners? And who's to say the "mighty" Mariners won't be stung by the injury problems of last year's Dodgers?

I think if you keep in mind the three backup quarterbacks who took their teams to Super Bowl titles the last three years, you'll be better able to focus on current reality, not reputation, this baseball season.

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