The Homogenizing Face of Exhibition Football

More and more in the past few seasons, NFL preseason football games have become more alike in handicapping terms.

Gone are the days of old-school coaches such as Bud Grant and "semi" old-school coaches such as Bill Walsh, Marv Levy, and Bill Parcells, who were so nicely predictable (good or bad) in the preseason.

Now, more than ever, the vast majority of NFL exhibitions are coached according to a "formula." It should be no secret to any sports fan in the salary-crazy days of the 1990s and 2000s that NFL preseason games are, in essence, practice games in full "battle dress," whose real purpose is to provide product for the various TV networks that cover the NFL, to provide extra revenue for the owners, and to give the media and fans plenty of subject matter to heighten interest in the NFL before the start of the regular season in September.

The current preseason formula (for teams playing the common four exhibitions) goes something like this:

Game No. 1 – The starters go a couple of series or one quarter, the backups go the rest of the half, and reserves/deep reserves go the rest of the way.

Game No. 2 – The starters go most or all of the first half, the backups go deep into the third (or early fourth) quarter, and the reserves go the rest of the way.

Game No. 3 – This is a dress rehearsal for opening day of the regular season. The starters play two and a half to three quarters of the game, the backups go most of the rest of the way, and some reserves might see action depending on the situation.

Game No. 4 – This is often a "throwaway" game for coaches, who are much more concerned about their opening-day opponent than they are their preseason finale. Starters usually play a couple of series, and maybe less. Any key players with nagging injuries are held out. Backups and reserves get the majority of the game, with backups getting one final chance to earn a starting job, and reserves a last chance to lock up a spot on the regular-season roster.

In addition to the "formula," most NFL coaches adhere to an unwritten preseason coaches' "gentleman's agreement" that goes something like this: "For the first two games, I will use my starters only against your starters, my backups against your backups, and my reserves against your reserves. I will not reinsert starters or key backups late in the game to help get (or prevent) a decisive score just so that my team can win. I will not use surprise, unorthodox blitzes on nonpassing downs. And I will not go all out to block your punts and field-goal attempts (except at the very end) just so that I can win. This agreement is null and void in the next-to-last game of the preseason, when it's every coach for himself. And you can do whatever you want in the final preseason game except injure my players, because I really don't care that much about it, either."

Fortunately for handicappers, there are enough games in which the motivation, scheduling situations, and talent disparities are great enough to present some interesting wagering situations in the preseason, regardless of the "formula" and "coaches' agreement." Sports bettors should always be selective (sportsbooks love the ones who are not). Nevertheless, the NFL preseason can often be a profitable time as sports bettors learn about the teams and hone their own handicapping skills prior to the start of the regular season. Here are some situations to look for:

The biggest edge of all. The biggest edge is, of course, when one team is using vastly superior talent that day, in that game than its preseason opponent is using. This can happen due to injuries or scheduling dynamics, or when one coach's determination is paired against another coach's semi-indifference. It rarely hurts to have the better players in any contest, practice or not.

Teams that have a game under their belt. It has long been customary for several teams each year to play five exhibitions (rather than the usual four these days) – usually because of the Hall of Fame game, or games in other countries. Teams that had a game under their belt were 7-2 vs. the spread last year when facing teams playing their first preseason game. (However, it will be noted here that such "game-under-the-belt" teams were only 6-12 vs. the spread the previous five years, and 17-21 the previous seven years.)

0-2 teams. Coaches tend to get very antsy when their team starts the preseason with two straight losses, even though they know the games don't count. Teams that lost their first two exhibitions last year were 4-1 vs. the spread in their next game (when not facing similar winless opponents). Over the past six years, 0-2 teams are 23-15 vs. the spread; over the last 17 years, they're a solid 60 percent.

Jets vs. Giants. In pregame interviews, players on both teams regularly contend that this practice-game battle for bragging rights in Gotham is "just another exhibition." Well, (at least) the Jets are lying, as they have covered the last 10 in the series!

Totals. Many handicappers like to play the "under" in early preseason games, figuring the use of several quarterbacks, so-called "vanilla" offenses, and semipredictable defenses will tend to produce low-scoring games. Last year, those handicappers were right, as games in the opening week and first full week of the preseason yielded only five "overs" and 13 "unders." (Note, however, that the "unders" still trail the "overs" 61-69 in the opening and first full weeks over the last seven years.)

I hope this perspective helps you enjoy the NFL preseason this year. Even though they're just practice games, all sportsbooks know that football is still "king" among sports bettors, and that the NFL is the "king of kings."

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The Gold Sheet's popular football preview issue is now on newsstands, covering the NFL, college football, and exhibition play with inside reports, statistical breakdowns, logs, and upcoming schedules. If you would like to order a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.