'Little Men' a Big Factor in Baseball

One of the somewhat odd things about baseball is that there are so many more fans in proportion to the number who are bettors.

We all know that in terms of overall popularity, football long ago passed baseball, and is "king" when it comes to generating television ratings, advertising revenue, and sports-betting dollars. The change from odds betting to pointspread wagering on football near the middle of the 20th century helped give football a big boost in terms of gambling, as nearly every seasoned football fan these days understands the pointspread and has an opinion on the big games, whether that opinion involves bragging rights, office pools, football "cards," casual bets, or big-time wagers in Nevada (and, these days, offshore).

Many ardent fans of baseball aren't interested in wagering, viewing baseball as a laid-back, "pastoral" sport that is better fit for a family outing. Whereas fans generally have most of a week to discuss and handicap upcoming football games, in baseball, the action is daily (or nearly so), and involves a season-long grind that encompasses vacation time for most people, who, during that period, are seeking to decrease their level of stress, not increase it. Moreover, many sports fans who frequently bet on football find it hard to understand the odds "prices" in baseball vs. the pointspread wagering in football and basketball.

Nevertheless, I always tell my football-betting friends that baseball can be just as rewarding for people who follow the game closely and are willing to put up with the daily grind. But for those who want to wager only now and again during the baseball season, one of the "helpful hints" I give them is to look at each team's "little men."

Usually, it's the sluggers who get most of the headlines in the newspapers and most of the airtime on the many television sports highlight shows. But it's more often the case that it's the so-called "little men" who "set the table" who determine the outcome of a game (aside from a dominating pitching performance, of course).

As my economics teacher always used to say, "Let's stop and define terms." "Little men" are not necessarily small in stature, although that's sometimes the case when they are compared with the sluggers on each team. "Little men" are the key defensive players for each team – that is, the shortstop, second baseman, and centerfielder. They often bat first, second, or eighth in a batting order (first, second, or ninth in the American League, due to its designated hitter rule). Generally speaking, the "little men" are in the lineup because of their defensive prowess, and sometimes their speed. They play the most important fielding positions in the game, and speed on defense and offense is usually one of their most important contributions to their team. You know what I'm talking about.

If you want to handicap all 30 baseball teams in a half-hour, just open your trusty sports page and write down each team's "little men" (just as I write down each team's "closer") and how they are doing, and lots of baseball "truth" will be headed your way. If a team's "little men" are "playing big," that team is usually doing well. If a team's "little men" are not contributing either at the plate or on the bases, that team is usually not doing well. Having "little men" who play "big" both in the field and at the plate is a huge advantage.

Consider the following:

The New York Yankees have won three straight World Series championships, and four in five years. It's no coincidence that they have accomplished this, considering the "big" performances of two so-called "little men," shortstop Derek Jeter and centerfielder Bernie Williams. Both have averaged well over .300 during the past five years and have good speed and bat control. And manager Joe Torre never has to sub for either of them on the basepaths or in the field, which is a huge advantage.

Somewhat similarly over the past two years, the Cleveland Indians have had a burgeoning offense because of the combined presence of centerfielder Kenny Lofton, shortstop Omar Vizquel, and second baseman Roberto Alomar, three "little men" who play big in the field, at the plate, and on the bases. They made it easy for Manny Ramirez to knock in 287 runs in just 265 games the past two seasons before Ramirez bolted to Boston for a megabucks contract. We developed a rule of thumb at my home base of The Gold Sheet: Never go "under" in a Cleveland game; the Indians score too freely.

Shortstop Alex Rodriguez garnered the biggest contract in the history of pro sports ($252 million over 10 years) because he puts up huge numbers (42, 42, and 41 home runs the last three years) from a "little man's" position. Shortstop Nomar Garciaparra (.333 lifetime batting average) is nearly as spectacular in Boston. Jeff Kent, a slugging second baseman, won the National League MVP award last year in San Francisco. Ken Griffey Jr. already had 438 home runs going into this year, a centerfield total that has surpassed Joe DiMaggio and is on the way toward Willie Mays. Second baseman Craig Biggio (a converted catcher, by the way) is a multiple all-star for Houston, which missed him terribly when he was injured for the last two months of last year.

The Dodgers traded away the young Pedro Martinez in hope of gaining a dynamic "little man" (second baseman Delino DeShields, who was a bust), and they have been looking fruitlessly for a combination of speed, fielding, and on-base percentage at the top of their lineup ever since. The great Henry Aaron himself has pronounced infielder Rafael Furcal (87 runs in only 131 games in 2000, his rookie year) the "most exciting" player in the National League.

You get the point. If a team's so-called "little men" are "happening," that team has a big edge. And the edge could be even bigger this season with the new, higher, bigger strike zone, which already appears to be working in cutting down on the number of home runs per game (by about 9 percent to 10 percent through the early weeks of the season). That means the dual importance of "little men" and their ability to play "little ball" has increased this year, and the importance of sluggers has decreased relative to last year (it has always been my belief that most sluggers roll up their numbers against weak pitchers in games often already decided, anyway).

So, if you're looking for value in baseball betting, know your "little men." If they're weak hitters, poor fielders, and slow on the bases, chances are that even a good pitcher is going to have problems pulling out a victory. In the tough, close games, the hitting, fielding, speed, power, and/or "table setting" of the "little men" will turn out to be a big help for the occasional (and regular) baseball bettor.

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