A-K Revisited - Part II

In Part I of this column, I discussed a TwoPlusTwo thread regarding the play of A-K in the small blind when facing a raise from a solid (good) player in early position. On his Poker School Online lessons, noted poker authority Mike Caro had recommended to his students that they should usually fold A-K in such a situation – suited or not – and in the thread that I discussed in the last issue, the quality of this advice was being questioned. Most posters thought the advice given was wrong, and that calling or reraising was better. I thought that in most cases a fold was in order, and that Caro's advice was right. (Also, when teaching people how to play well in poker, it is usually best to first teach them how to fold in difficult situations. Then, if they prove to be good students, and have learned how to avoid marginal and/or difficult situations, there might come a time when the merits of other options could be evaluated, like calling or reraising in the situation described here.) Anyway, when my first limit hold'em quiz was published in the now defunct Poker Digest magazine – a quiz that contained a rather similar situation regarding A-K in the small blind when facing an under-the-gun raise, in which I also recommended folding the hand – quite a few people were outraged by the advice I had given. Most of the people who were involved in discussions on RGP and TwoPlusTwo claimed I was wrong. Only a few people acknowledged that I might have a point, that maybe there was a bit of truth to my reasoning. Today, I will take a final look at the A-K problem from the quiz, and the way this hand could, or should, be played under the conditions mentioned.

You are playing in a fairly standard $10-$20 hold'em game, 10-handed, with a 5 percent rake, $3 maximum. You're in seat No. 10. There's a weak-tight player in seat No. 1, a professional player in seat No. 2, and a loose-aggressive player in seat No. 7. All others can be considered average or a bit below average.

Problem No. 1:

You are in the small blind, holding A-K offsuit. Seat No. 2 has raised to $20, and everyone has folded to you. What should you do? (a) fold; (b) call; © raise

Problem No. 2:

It's the same situation, but this time you hold A-K suited. What should you do? (a) fold; (b) call; © raise

In the quiz, I gave points for every decision, ranging from 1 (terrible) to 10 (excellent/superb). Most decisions would get anywhere from 4 (bad) to 8 (good) points, as I tried to touch a bit on borderline situations. After all, a quiz with questions like, "You are heads up with the nuts on the end. Your opponent bets into you. What should you do?" wouldn't really get you thinking more deeply about the game, in my opinion. What's more, in quizzes of this kind, it is not so much the total scores as it is the reasoning behind the decisions that is most important. Having said that, after publication of the quiz, I received more e-mails than ever before, mostly from people who hadn't done well in the quiz – and it was always the A-K problems that had cost them points. The points per answer I gave were as follows:

Problem No. 1:

(a) 7; (b) 5; © 4

The raiser figures to have a high pair or A-K as well; remember, he's a professional player raising from under the gun. Why get involved when your hand is an underdog to begin with? You don't know where you're at in the hand. If you flop a king, you might lose a lot of money; if you flop an ace when the raiser has a wired pair, you might not get any action; if you flop nothing but he doesn't have anything, either, he might outplay you and make you lay down the best hand.

Problem No. 2:

(a) 7; (b) 6; © 4

The fact that your hand is suited isn't really important here. If your call induces a call by the big blind, your hand might be playable. However, folding is still the best option: Why invest a lot of money when there's nothing in the pot, you're out of position, and you know your opponent has a real hand?

While the recommendations I gave may seem overly tight to most players, I still think, for most players, it's the proper way to play the hand in the situation described. Only truly excellent players who are capable of outplaying their opponents after the flop, and who know exactly when to release a hand (if it's beat), when to check and call (to induce a bluff), and when to launch a bluff because the opponent is likely to be weak would be able to get positive expected value (EV) out of this situation, in my opinion. (And if you ever encounter me in a limit hold'em cash game, you can be sure that I don't just recommend these kinds of folds – I practice what I preach.) On poker forums and newsgroups, especially TwoPlusTwo, there were furious discussions for days on the folds I had advocated, with people commenting things like, "Gee, this brings playing tight to an entirely new level." When all the smoke had cleared, I posted the following (Mid- and High-Stakes Limit Hold'em Forum, Feb. 16, 2002):

A-K Revisited (long)

Guys,

There was a discussion on A-K in the small blind when facing a raise only two months ago in this place. Mason Malmuth and I, among others, were involved in that thread. Most posters claimed folding A-K in the small blind against an early-position raise is wrong (that is, has negative EV), and in some cases that may be true. In the case I described in the quiz (10-handed game, maximum $3 rake, under-the-gun raise by a professional player), it may seem extremely tight to fold your A-K. However, in my opinion, it's not a matter of playing tight or loose, it's a matter of having or not having a positive expectation for the hand. While I agree that BEFORE THE FLOP, your A-K may be in really bad shape only a small percentage of the time (when the pro has aces or kings), I think the situation still calls for a fold. (I have to admit, though, that I know lots of players who have NEVER folded A-K before the flop and still are long-term winners. Also, note that I give 7 points for a fold and 5 or 6 for a call, so it should be clear that we are talking about a borderline decision here.) In my opinion, the most probable situations would look like this (I assume you'll tip half a dollar when you win; I also assume the big blind will fold every time, whether you reraise or just call):

Situation 1: You call the pro's raise

The problem is: How are you going to play your hand now? The pro KNOWS you've got a quality hand, probably a big ace. If an ace or king flops, you might not get any action unless you're beat. If only small cards flop, you've got an even bigger problem. The only way for you to know if your A-K is good is to call your opponent down all the way with a no-pair hand. Now, if he keeps betting, you might very well lose $50 more, in addition to the $20 before the flop.

Situation 2: You reraise and the pro calls

If the flop comes with small cards and the pro DOES hold a weaker hand than yours (A-Q, for example), he will probably fold on the flop. The $70 pot will be yours, a net win of $36.50. However, if your hand ISN'T good (that is, the pro holds a wired pair or has received help from the flop), you will lose either $80 (if he calls you down all the way or bets the river after you've checked) or $90 or $100, if he raises you on the flop or turn. In all cases, you cannot fold, because if you fold at any point in the hand, the pro might have made you lay down a winner. If an ace or king flops and the pro holds a smaller pair, he will probably fold on the flop and, once again, you will win $36.50. However, if you get a lot of action after you've flopped an ace or king, be prepared to LOSE a very big pot. Even though it's mathematically UNLIKELY that the pro holds kings or aces, IT DOESN'T MEAN HE CAN'T HAVE THEM.

The point is: You can never make your opponent fold a winner, but he can make YOU fold a winner, or make you fold a split pot when he also holds A-K. In order to avoid this, you cannot possibly fold. If you are willing to lay down your A-K at any stage in the hand, you may get outplayed; remember, you are up against a pro who knows what he's doing. What this means is that when your hand is good, you will win a small pot (a net win of between $26.50 and $46.50), but when it's not, you will lose a big one (a net loss of anywhere from $60 to $120, depending on how aggressive you are with your hand).

Yes, it might seem like a big deal to fold A-K before the flop. However, in my opinion, it is best to avoid situations in which (a) you're up against very good players, (b) you're out of position, © you don't know where you're at, and (d) the opposition has shown strength. In this case, you're up against a professional player who is raising from under the gun in a 10-handed game, and you're out of position with a hand that is very good, but not necessarily the best. And even if it is, you might get outplayed after the flop. For all of these reasons, I think a fold is in order here, even though I understand – and respect – anyone who thinks differently.

A funny thing about discussing strategy in forums or newsgroups is that in most cases, you don't know the persons with whom you're talking. In real life, you would talk strategy with players whose game you respect, or people who at least have the theoretical knowledge to play well. On the Internet, you talk with players you have never met, and who might be thinking on a totally different level than you. Still, it is a good thing to be confronted with views and opinions that are opposed to yours every now and then, because sometimes you may be forced to re-evaluate your opinion. After all, just because you think your decision to play a hand in a certain way is the right one, it doesn't mean that it is. And maybe someone will come up with an even better play than the one you chose, a play you hadn't even thought of. I would like to thank Jim Brier for starting the discussions regarding my quiz; not because he always agreed with me – quite the contrary – but because for all of the people involved in the threads, including me (and probably the people who just followed the discussions without participating), a lot of poker knowledge was provided, which might have helped us in further improving our games.