Simple Rule of Thumb in Baseball Totals

It's no secret that football is "king" when it comes to sports betting, and the NFL is the "king of kings." Football, overall – and the NFL, in particular – is the most popular wagering sport. The fans' great familiarity with the players and the teams, the weeklong buildup to the games, and the media coverage of every big contest generate more wagering interest in the gridiron sport than any other. Among the four major U.S. sports (baseball, football, basketball, and hockey), basketball is next in overall wagering interest, then baseball, with hockey a distant fourth.

Among other reasons, it's more difficult for most people to understand baseball odds (-145 vs. +135, or -110 vs. +100, and so on). Even if some fans understand the nature of baseball wagering, it's often tough for them to figure out which team has the edge when the odds escalate on obvious favorites. The same is true, often more so, when it comes to wagering on baseball totals. Thus, like betting on baseball overall, they tend to leave them alone. I would like to suggest a simple rule of thumb when it comes to baseball wagering that might be helpful to casual sports-fan visitors to casinos, as well as the more sophisticated sports bettor.

When it comes to betting baseball totals, it usually takes BOTH teams to be doing a little scoring for the game to go "over." And that's about as simple as it gets.

In truth, there are many elements that professionals consider before they make an "over/under" wager on a baseball game. They consider the starting pitchers, the bullpens, the ballpark, the weather conditions, and the hitters in the lineup. Many teams, pitchers, and parks have "over/under" tendencies that are known, and such knowledge can be very beneficial.

But for me, the baseball totals rule of thumb is simple: It takes two to tango. If the teams in the game aren't going to be sharing the scoring, the game has only a small chance of going "over." On the contrary, if just one of the teams is apt to do some scoring, the game has a great chance to go "under." If this seems too obvious, it is. And that's why I usually discourage those who are tempted to go with low-scoring teams in "over" plays when the posted total is low, and why I also discourage those who buck the good pitchers with "over" plays when those pitchers are in a groove.

Here are some easy-to-understand facts and figures to illustrate my point: Through the first two months of the 2004 season, there were 345 games that went "over" the total, 351 that went "under," and 22 that ended in pushes. This is virtually 50-50.

But consider this: In games in which the losing team scored at least three runs, the game went "over" the total roughly 78 percent of the time, regardless of the posted total.

In games in which the losing team failed to score at least three runs, the game went "under" nearly 83 percent of the time.

These are substantial percentages. In simple terms, if just one team in a game is going to be essentially controlled by the opposing pitching staff, the chances of the game going "over" are small. And the chances of it going "under" increase dramatically.

Keep in mind that these percentages are inclusive of all posted totals (that is, 7, 8.5, 9.5, 11, or whatever) and all parks, including hitters parks such as Coors Field (aka "Coors Canaveral") in Colorado and The Ballpark at Arlington, Texas. (I slightly adjust upward my simple rule of thumb for those parks, but only if the weather is good.)

But the simple fact remains, if a quality pitcher is in a groove and is shutting down opponents, I'm not interested in trying to go "over," even if the opposing pitcher is likely to be knocked out of the game. And I'm not interested in trying to go "over" – even when the posted total is low – when one of the teams in a game is struggling to score runs, or when some of its key offensive players are hurting or out of the lineup. That would be betting into the percentages.

In sports betting, as in poker, keeping the odds in your favor is crucial to long-run success. You might occasionally succeed in filling an inside straight or outdrawing a stronger hand on the final card, but it's usually not a good way to play over the long haul. Keeping the odds in your favor is the way to go. So, when it comes to wagering on baseball totals, remember that it takes both teams to do some of the scoring – and more than just a run or two – to push the great majority of the games over the total. It takes two to tango. Otherwise, keep things simple and look "under."

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the 2004 Gold Sheet Football Preview at your local newsstand. If you'd like to reserve a copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.