Football Myths Versus Reality

With a few more months to go in the football season, it's a good time to explore some of the more frequently stated myths about football, the "king" of sports betting. The concepts that follow might be of use as football progresses toward its most exciting games in the national title chase, bowls, and NFL playoffs.

MYTH: In football betting, the vigorish will eventually "kill" you.

WRONG. This is usually a handy, after-the-fact excuse used by weak sports bettors. In most cases, the vigorish won't kill you; picking losers will. If you're not good at sports betting and pick more losers than winners, you are going to lose anyway. The vig just makes it a little more expensive. And, even if you're good at picking winners but bad at managing your bankroll, your poor money-management habits will hurt you more than the vig. If you're a frequent and otherwise knowledgeable sports bettor, one who uses good money management but who has poor wagering habits (that is, betting just before game time and laying more points than you should on favorites), your poor habits will hurt you. But the vig still won't kill you.

MYTH: In football, a team has to be able to pass to score, but it must be able to run in order to win.

USUALLY TRUE. Teams that are unbalanced, or too weak in one department or the other, usually fall by the wayside in the big games. Coaches will tell you that the main intent of their defensive scheme and game plan is to make their opponent predictable on offense. When they're predictable, that's when first downs become less frequent and sacks, incompletions, and interceptions more frequent. Teams that count too much on their ground game often have a tough time scoring touchdowns against top-flight opponents. Without a respectable passing game, their point production shrivels up near the goal line. Contrariwise, teams that overemphasize the pass often have a hard time winning if they can't run effectively, especially at the end of games. How many times have you seen a team with a lead in the late going fail to win only because it can't make that crucial first down that would eat up the rest of the clock? It seems to happen in several games each week. For want of one late first down, an entire game is lost. John Elway, despite his immense talents, never won a Super Bowl until Terrell Davis gave Denver a dynamic ground attack. Dan Marino holds the career record in the NFL with 420 touchdown passes. Without a similar, complementary rushing companion, he never won a Super Bowl ring. Bob Griese, backed by Larry Csonka, Jim Kiick, and Mercury Morris, won two. In college, Southern Cal's 2003 title team began to dominate this year (and cover pointspreads) when powerful running back LenDale White made opposing defenses focus more on stopping the run, making things easy through the air for QB Matt Leinart.

MYTH: Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.

USUALLY TRUE. Ask last year's Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts if they don't believe this is true. New England, with its less-flashy offense but the stingiest defense in the league, won the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick's well-schooled defense knocked off the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" for the championship two years before that. In between the Pats' titles, Tampa Bay's dominating defense won for the Bucs, intercepting the Raiders six times. Ray Lewis and the Ravens won despite one of the worst offenses ever to make it into the playoffs. How about the Bears doing the "Super Bowl Shuffle" against Tony Eason and New England? Pittsburgh's "Steel Curtain"? BCS champ LSU was No. 1 in total defense in the NCAA last year. Southern Cal was No. 1 in rushing defense. Get the idea?

MYTH: Winning on the NFL road is the toughest thing in team sports.

WRONG. This notion is floated frequently by NFL coaches, quite recently by Baltimore's Brian Billick in a locker room film clip featured on the sports TV networks. I think coaches tell their players this is true in order to help get them focused before road games, and also to then give them verbal praise later if they accomplish their "mission impossible." In fact, there are few team sports in which league officials go quite as far as the NFL to make things fair for the visitors. NFL parity and its many very experienced players have also proven to be effective equalizers. For the record, through the first six weeks of the 2004 campaign, NFL home teams led the visitors only 46-42. Against the spread, the home teams were only 34-51-3. Naturally, some teams do better on the road than others. Philadelphia was 7-1 on the road last year, while Detroit was 0-24 over a three-year period until this year's opener. But, generally speaking, the home-field value that most sports bettors allow in the NFL tends to be too high. All games are physical wars in the NFL for both the visitor and the home team. The hometown edge in other sports such as college football and basketball tends to be much more significant.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.