The Unforeseen Lady

In between sessions of a big regional bridge tournament in Tunica, Mississippi, the week after Labor Day, while waiting for a seat in the pot-limit Omaha game at the Horseshoe, I took a seat in a lively $4-$8 Omaha high-low game with a half-kill.

After folding several hands, I finally picked up A-Q-4-2 with the ace and 4 both hearts. But being in second position, I certainly did not raise before the flop, because it might have lessened attendance. In seven-way action, the flop came K-Q-5 with two hearts. The two blinds and the next player checked to me. Would you bet this hand, or not?

There are several considerations involved here, but all in all, you should not bet. The nut-flush draw by itself is a pulling hand. You want more opponents in the pot to increase your possible payoff if you hit. And you would rather not increase your investment until you hit, since you make your flush only about 35 percent of the time with two cards to come, and only about 20 percent of the time on the river. So, the most normal flush-draw action is to check instead of bet, or call instead of raise.

Thus, if the flop had contained three high cards (from 9 to king), meaning that there could be no low, you would normally check a hand with just a flush draw. But here, you have a pair of queens with an ace kicker. After a high flop in Omaha high-low, you often want to bet a high pair simply to narrow the action. That often improves the winning potential of your high pair. But in this hand, with so many callers, it is very likely that there would be one or more bashful kings lurking.

Note that if you held this hand in last position and it was checked around to you, you probably would bet the high flop on general principles (with very good chances of buying the pot if no one raises). And then, if you get only one or two callers, you might even try the drive bluff if you don't hit (assuming there is no low). With these high flops, if there is an early-position bet and you are in late position, you often make an "inhibitory raise," which tends to get the betting checked around to you on the turn (then, you have the option of getting a free river card).

When you have the nut-flush draw and the flop contains two or three low cards, you have no reason to increase the stakes, unless you happen to have some mediocre other possibilities (especially if they're both high and low) in addition to your nut-flush draw. Then, you might bet or make a "promo raise" after the flop if you judge that the bet or raise might create enough pressure to fold some other marginal lows and highs, thus promoting your lesser holdings into contention.

Note that when three low cards flop (and you do not have the nut low), it is not your party, so you must check and hope it stays cheap. Since you can win only half the pot at best even if you hit your flush, you certainly would prefer to fold this hand than face a capped round of betting after the fourth card – although sometimes you do get trapped. On rare occasions when there is too big a starting pot to fold (and you know you are stuck in the hand until the last card, unless the board pairs), you might join in the raising after the flop to fake a nut low in an attempt to keep the betting down on the next (double bet) round.

On the other hand, if you are in last position and it happens to get checked around to you, it is always tempting to bet aggressively to try to steal the pot or narrow the action to promote your mediocre holdings into contention (and perhaps get it checked around to you on the next round). But here's a warning: When you have the nut-flush draw, you are usually stuck in the hand until the river. Thus, your aggressive bet or "promo raise" could backfire if it touches off a raising war with only you in the middle. That certainly would be bad for you, since it costs you more money and you have fewer callers if you hit. Otherwise put, it is often wrong to push in a pulling situation.

Now, getting back to the original hand, when the flop contains two high cards and one low card, any high-oriented hand might bet on the theory that one of the high hands should bet to keep the low draws out (since a free fourth low card might well cost the winning high hand half the pot). But, of course, that applies mainly to high hands that have no good low draw. If, as in this hand, you have great low cards, you would rather have the other low-hand players in than out.

So, with this particular hand, I chose to check my nut-flush draw to pull in more business, and also because my A-2-4 would probably make the best backdoor low. And although one argument for betting was to promote the high potential of my queens, with so many callers, it was quite likely that my queens were currently only second or third best. Note that if it happened to get checked around, I would not be unhappy, since I would miss making my flush on the next card far more often than I would make it. And even if a low card came on the turn, I would still have nothing unless I hit a good card on the river.

I was immediately happy that I had checked when the player on my left bet. If I had bet and he had raised, we might have lost most of the other players. In five-way action (yes, the action there was hard to believe), the fourth card was the 3, giving me the best possible low draw and excellent chances of scooping the pot. I sensed that the bettor on my left was ready to bet again, so I checked; he indeed bet again.

The other three players called around to me. Since more than one-third of the deck would give me a scooper (an ace, deuce, 4, or 6 would make a straight or a heart flush), and since six other cards (sevens and eights, not hearts) would give me the nut low, I check-raised. They all just called.

I was somewhat disappointed when the river was the Q, even though it did give me trips. I was fairly certain that the big bettor on my left had started with a set or top two pair and was now full. So, I checked. Then, it was checked all around, and the dealer pushed the pot to me. I guess I should have included the queen in my calculations.

Perhaps the final moral of this story is that although a nut-flush draw is less than half as valuable when there is a low split likely, when taken in combination with other holdings, it often adds enough value to a hand to make aggressive play a better option than calling or folding.