Helpful Technique in Early College Hoops

The college basketball season tipped off recently, and even though the football season still has several more weeks of exciting and important games, football-wagering opportunities will gradually decrease to a precious few. The growing volume of hoops games will offer a much larger card for knowledgeable sports handicappers to make selections.

Because of the large number of non-conference games, many of them involving big class differences, it's sometimes difficult for some hoops bettors to isolate the high-percentage games from the rest of the "herd." Here's an early-season technique that I have found to be useful in helping me isolate a few of the more promising situations.

For the non-conference college home favorites I'm considering, I imagine a line that is one-third lower than the actual pointspread, and work with that artificially lower line in making my final decision whether that favorite is a play.

For non-conference home underdogs I'm considering, I imagine a pointspread 50 percent higher than the actual line and use that to make my final decision.

The opposite, of course, applies when I consider a road favorite (add an imaginary 50 percent to the actual line) or a road underdog (imagine a pointspread 33 percent less than the actual line).

This might seem overly simple and also self-deceptive. But I think not, if you are experienced and properly prepared, which is a very good idea if you expect to have consistent success in sports wagering. You have to be totally conscious that you're using a mind-game technique. After all, Vegas pays off on the real pointspread, not your imaginary one. Here are some of the things involved in being prepared.

Do your basic "homework" first before betting on any team early in the season. Know the point guard situation, the number of experienced returnees, and the presumed strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved in the games you're considering. You're not going to know everything, because it's early in the season, but it's good to know what you can.

Check for injuries, suspensions, and ineligibilities of players involved in the games in which you're interested. There are numerous free or subscriber websites on the Internet that provide such information. (Unfortunately, many such reports are incomplete or often contain old, non-updated information, but they usually do well enough on the big-name players.) If coaches have to suspend players for disciplinary reasons, they try to get those suspensions out of the way before conference play begins. Many incoming hotshots who are written up in the preseason hoops magazines are not academically eligible right away. The same is true for players who transferred from another college after the fall semester, a very common practice these days. They might not be available to play until mid-December, or even early January.

Experienced players, of course, are a big plus in college, especially early in the season. They know their roles. The make fewer mistakes. They usually play better defense. They enable coaches to use more "gimmicks" and surprises to throw opponents off.

Newcomers must be watched closely to identify those who can have an immediate impact. Most celebrated newcomers are overrated early. They might be able to score, but their shot selection and defense usually leave a lot to be desired. However, newcomers overall are farther advanced and get more early playing time than in the past. Most blue-chip players in high school are readied for the college game by the many camps, all-star games, and interstate games that take place these days.

Still, these newcomers are playing their first few games with new teammates. They are traveling together for the first time. And, they are almost always making their first visits to the arena of the school that is hosting them. That's why I like to use the 33 percent and 50 percent technique. In those first few road games, the points are going to be harder to come by than they will in later road games. So, even though the line on a home favorite might seem a bit high, the game might "play" a bit easier if the host team has a veteran point guard and a corps of other experienced players. For early road favorites, the games generally tend to "play" a little harder.

Also, it's not news that many hoops games that are tight for 35 minutes can frequently become distorted in the last five minutes when the visitor is trailing by more than a few points. With a greater urgency to score quickly, quality shot selection goes out the window, turnovers tend to increase, and clock-stopping fouls mount. And the whole scenario is even further distorted when the season is young, teammates are new, and the game site is unfamiliar.

I discontinue this 50-33 technique once a team has played two or three road games, because by then, teammates are familiar with each other and newcomers have begun to learn the ropes. However, I reinstitute it for teams made up predominantly of frosh and sophs, no matter how much they appear to have developed in November and December, when those young teams play their first couple of conference road games. Winning on the conference road is usually extra difficult, even for seasoned teams.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.