The 120 NBA Teams

"Wait a minute," you say, "there are only 30 teams in the NBA."

Maybe there are to you, but to me and to most handicappers, there are 120.

Yes, there are 30 different franchises, but many of the teams' performances vary greatly when they are on the road rather than at home. And just because a team might have a dominating straight-up record and be on the top of the standings, in the world of handicapping, that doesn't always translate into a good pointspread record.

Thus, we have the straight-up record of the 30 teams at home, the straight-up record of the 30 teams on the road, the pointspread record of the 30 at home, and the pointspread record of the 30 on the road. That's a total of 120. (In truth, we also have teams in the role of home favorite, home underdog, road favorite, and road underdog, but "120" teams is enough for right now.)

If you handicap merely by a team's straight-up record overall, you're going to be frequently disappointed. Oddsmakers know that more people like to bet on favorites than on underdogs, and that more people prefer home teams to road teams. Thus, the pointspread is more often (but not always) just a little less favorable for home favorites than it is for road underdogs. In fact, several years of research at my home base of The Gold Sheet show that home-court values assigned by oddsmakers to many home teams in the NBA are too high when one compares the pointspread performance of each team at home versus its pointspread performance on the road. But, keep in mind that this is in general, not in each particular case.

I'm bringing all of this up because the NBA is at the beginning of its stretch drive – the last three weeks of the season. Because of the many results in the long 82-game NBA season, there is a large accumulation of 2004-2005 pointspread data. The best pointspread roles of the teams are pretty well-established.

But remember, these are "technical" tendencies, "technical" in the sense that they are totals of pointspread results, by category, previously in the season. In handicapping terms, the "good" teams are the ones that are most predictable; the "bad" teams are the ones that are least predictable. It is nice to know which are which at this time of the season.

However, in the last three weeks of the NBA season, thorough knowledge of where teams stand in the playoff race and a close look at team chemistry are mandatory.

Quality teams that are fighting for important playoff positions can be good betting propositions. But, you can't go overboard. Use power ratings to be sure the pointspread on their games is "fair." Review technical trends to see if the team is in a positive role. Make sure it is mostly healthy. And, lastly, make sure it is playing a somewhat predictable foe.

Promising teams down the stretch in the NBA are the "A" teams (this season's top four, five, or six teams in the league) when they're on the road facing "C" teams (lower-echelon teams with little or no chance of making the playoffs). These power teams, with better players and more incentive, are often high-percentage plays to cover – even as road favorites – as long as the "price" is right. Once again, check the pointspread on the game versus your power rating on the game. Further research at my home base shows that "A" favorites have done well in the past against "C" home dogs when the pointspread is 5.5 points or lower. If the line is higher, be sure you have plenty of strong reasons before laying so many points on the road.

Lastly, during the NBA's "dog days," there are generally two types of disappointed, also-ran teams. The first type is the kind that still plays hard despite its lack of high-quality, top-flight players. This type can be a dangerous home dog or big road underdog, mostly because it is still willing to focus, stay together, absorb coaching, and hustle on defense despite looming elimination. One tell-tale sign is if its players obviously like and support each other and their coach.

The other kind of disappointed team is the type that repeatedly falls behind early, catches up somewhat in the middle portions of the game, then totally loses touch late in the game when the favorite's key players "turn it on" during "winning time." In addition to that in-game scoring pattern, other tell-tale signs of those poor-chemistry also-rans are "matador defense," impatience or selfishness on offense (if they're out of the playoffs, many players focus on keeping their scoring averages up for future contract purposes), and disinterest or detachment during team huddles.

It is an old axiom in basketball that "defense is desire." If you want to play good defense, you have to hustle, move your feet, and constantly be alert to help a teammate. An opponent can tell when a player is more focused on his upcoming Caribbean vacation than on getting in a low stance, chesting up, cutting off a path to the basket, and switching off his own man to help a teammate. The number of NBA millionaires who eschew defense in the closing weeks is really quite sad – unless you know which teams they play for and you wager against those teams in the right situations.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.