Online Profiling - Knowing the Playing Styles of Opponents Is Crucial to Winning Online

A key feature of online play is the ability to download and save previous hands. These can then be imported into a database package and analyzed at leisure. These packages do an excellent job of extracting all kinds of information about the way you play and help you to discover the strengths and weaknesses of your game. Perhaps even more importantly, they allow you to build profiles of your regular opponents. Developing and analyzing them is crucial to your potential success as an online player, especially beyond the low limits.



It is also possible, on some sites, to 'datamine.' This involves logging and retrieving information even when you are not actually at the tables. You can open tables and set software to log the hands played there while you are busy elsewhere. Some enthusiasts carry this to extremes. PartyPoker will permit you to open four tables simultaneously, and you can thus log a couple of thousand hands overnight. Even this, however, is not enough for some. I have seen players report that, by judicious use of software and by running parallel accounts, they can monitor up to 20 tables simultaneously, thus accumulating tens of thousands of hands on a daily basis. The claim is that this gives them 'an edge.'



The resultant tidal wave of data might be too much for some, but, as everyone knows, observing how your opponents play and picking up on their betting patterns is a fundamental skill in poker. Anyone who considers himself a remotely serious online player is missing out if he does not exploit this possibility.



I recently completed a book (How Good is Your Limit Hold'em?) that features numerous typical problems that arise in hold'em. A key feature is that I almost always gave a brief profile of your opponent(s) at the table, and an awareness of this is crucial when deciding what to do at various stages of a hand. Here is a typical example (not from the book) that demonstrates how you might plan your play based on your knowledge of two very different opponents:



The first opponent is RagingBull. RagingBull is very loose and very aggressive, betting and raising at every opportunity and running bluffs and semibluffs with the slightest provocation. However, although aggressive, he is not reckless. If it is obvious he is beat, he is perfectly capable of mucking, and he also will not chase hopeless longshots. His aggression mainly manifests itself preflop and on the flop, especially in shorthanded and heads-up play. He invariably open-raises rather than limp in and he tries to take down pots quickly with his aggressive play. His post-flop play is more circumspect. Many players play like this.



The second opponent is TheRabbit, who is the complete opposite of RagingBull. He is very timid and tends to scuttle away into his burrow at the slightest sign of danger. If he has a decent hand and gets heat, his natural reaction is to limp to the river with a series of calls to see if his hand holds up. He does not make pressure plays, preferring to call down even with quite decent holdings. He is a wonderful opponent, as he pays you off when you have the goods and lets you draw cheaply when you are the underdog. He also is invariably a preflop limper, raising only with premium holdings.



You are in the big blind in a $20-$40 hold'em game, holding A 9. The cutoff turns out to be your opponent in this pot, and as we discuss the hand, this will alternate between being RagingBull and TheRabbit. It is passed around to RagingBull/TheRabbit, who open-raises. The button and small blind fold. There is an argument for reraising here, but you decide to call. The flop is delightful for you: A 10 9, giving you two pair on a relatively unthreatening board. There is $90 in the pot and it is $20 to bet.



How are you going to play the hand? Your strategy should very much depend on who your opponent is. First of all, let us assume that your opponent is RagingBull. In this case, the best plan is probably to bet out. If you are lucky and he is holding a good hand such as A-K or A-Q, he will raise and you can three-bet or possibly wait to pop him on the turn. You could end up with very good action. Even if he has a modest holding that has vaguely connected with the flop, he may raise to try to take the initiative. Whatever he is holding, RagingBull will want to compete hard, and since it is very likely indeed that you have the best hand, this will be good news.



Let us assume that you bet out, RagingBull raises, you three-bet, and RagingBull just calls.



Now, let's replace RagingBull with TheRabbit. You are slightly surprised that he open-raised, as it is much more usual for him to limp preflop. He probably has something fairly decent, which may or may not have connected with the flop. If you lead out, he may raise you, but he is very likely to just call. So, your best plan is to check, planning a check-raise. Even a player as timid as TheRabbit will probably bet after you check, so at least you can guarantee getting two small bets in the pot on the flop. Let us assume that you check, TheRabbit bets, you check-raise, and TheRabbit calls.



Now, let's get rid of TheRabbit and return RagingBull to complete the hand. After the turn, the board is A 10 9 6. There were three bets on the flop, so there is $210 in the pot. It is $40 to bet. You bet and RagingBull calls. On the river, the board reads A 10 9 6 J. You bet and RagingBull now raises. This is a surprise. It is not that likely that RagingBull is launching a hopeless bluff, so the jack probably helped him in some way. The question is, did it help him enough to overtake our two pair?



The possible hands that have been seriously helped by the jack are as follows: A-J, J-10, J-9, J-J, and K-Q. Note that the improbable 8-7 would have completed a straight on the turn, and Q-8 is a nonsensical holding based on the play to date. Bearing in mind the playing style of RagingBull, which of the following is he likely to hold?



(A) A-J, and we are losing. It's possible, but not very likely. Holding position over us, he probably would have capped it on the flop and may even have raised on the turn (possibly angling for a free showdown) with such a strong hand.



(B) J-10 and J-9, and we are winning. These are very likely. RagingBull would play these hands aggressively preflop, and raising your flop bet with middle pair and backdoor-straight possibilities (while trying to create the possibility of taking a free card on the turn) would be very much in keeping with his style.



© J-J, and we are losing. This is certainly possible. This holding would be quite logical, bearing in mind RagingBull's conduct in the hand.



(D) K-Q, and we are losing. This is highly improbable. This hand had only a gutshot possibility and would have required RagingBull to call the turn with nowhere near the right pot odds. Although aggressive, he is not the sort of player to do this. A minor point is that there was no two-flush on board after the turn, so even with K-Q suited, he could not have picked up a flush draw.



Thus, the most likely holdings are (B) and ©. Without getting bogged down in the math, it is obvious that there are many more ways for RagingBull to hold J-10 and J-9 than J-J, so on the balance of probabilities, we are winning with our aces up and should three-bet.



Having played out the hand against RagingBull, we now return to TheRabbit. There was just a bet and a raise on the flop, so there is only $170 in the pot although this will have no bearing on the subsequent play. Again, after the turn, the board is A 10 9 6, and again, you bet and TheRabbit calls. On the river, the board reads A 10 9 6 J. You bet and now get raised. Bearing in mind the very different style of TheRabbit, how should you now respond? Let us again consider all of the possibilities:



(A) A-J, and we are losing. This is very likely. It is good enough to encourage TheRabbit to open-raise but also insufficiently powerful (from his timid point of view) to prevent him from switching into call-down mode when he gets check-raised on the flop.



(B) J-10 and J-9, and we are winning. This is possible, but not very likely. The key piece of evidence here is that we know TheRabbit generally likes to limp preflop, even from late position. These are classic limping hands. In fact, TheRabbit is so passive that he might even just call on the river with these hands, being afraid (justifiably – as it turns out) of a better two pair.



© J-J, and we are losing. This is certainly possible. This holding would be quite in keeping with TheRabbit's play to date.



(D) K-Q, and we are losing. This is certainly possible. Players like TheRabbit are not great observers of pot odds, and the lousy call on the turn for the gutshot would be fairly typical of his play.



When our opponent was RagingBull, our analysis showed that (B) was the most likely holding, with © being a possibility. However, with TheRabbit in the cutoff seat, all four are candidate holdings, and we are winning only in scenario (B). Furthermore, because of what we know of TheRabbit's style, this is now his least likely holding. Obviously, we are not going to fold, but calling – rather than three-betting – is now the percentage play.



Knowing something of the playing style of your opponent is crucial in enabling you to push your good hands as hard as possible and to get away from the trap hands as cheaply as possible.

Byron Jacobs is the author of How Good is Your Limit Hold'Em? with Jim Brier. It is available through bookshops and at http://www.dandbpoker.com/. Trade inquiries: [email protected].