Dangerous River Raises

When you raise on the river, your hand is usually not obvious. You might have made two pair or a set, or slow-played a strong hand. An opponent with a decent hand or a suspicious nature might easily call you.



Sometimes, though, it is totally obvious what you are representing, and it is almost impossible for you to be bluffing. Remarkably, in those cases, you might be better off not raising or reraising with a very powerful hand that is not quite the nuts. This recommendation applies only when you are up against a very strong player.



If you have the best hand, he will probably fold, and if you do not, you will certainly get reraised. While the temptation to raise may be overwhelming, you really need to stop and think before you actually put in that raise.



Naturally, I have a couple of limit hold'em examples for you to ponder. In the cases that follow, you have an exceptionally strong hand, but one that will be obvious by your raise.



CASE NO. 1 – ACES FULL: I played a hand recently that got me thinking about this topic. I held the A 8 in the big blind in a $30-$60 hold'em game. A mediocre player (MP) limped in from middle position and a wannabe pro (WP) completed from the small blind. I did not know much about MP, but WP was an interesting fellow. He played lots of mediocre hands and was making money because even worse players populated the game. On the other hand, he typically avoided me, and tended to fold bad hands in the blind for a raise.



Since I probably had the best hand and had a good chance to create some dead money by getting WP to fold, I raised.



My plan worked, as MP called and WP folded. The flop came a fine-looking A 7 7. I bet out, and MP called. The turn was the 8, giving me top two pair but putting a possible flush on the board. Now I was vulnerable to a 7 or a flush. There were many other hands MP could have, though, so I went ahead and bet. He called again.



The A fell on the river, giving me aces full of eights, a surprising and well-hidden hand. MP raised when I bet. I reraised, and he called. I showed my hand, and he was understandably upset as he showed his A 9.



Of course, he played his hand badly in several respects. He probably should not have entered the pot at all from middle position with a mediocre ace, but having decided it was good enough to play, he should have raised. He probably would have won the blinds, as I rarely play A-8 for a raise in the big blind against a middle-position raiser. But it was his play on the river that got me thinking.



What was his raise supposed to accomplish? Yes, I see that he made aces full of sevens, and probably held the winning hand. But, what can I call the raise with? He will hardly ever be bluffing here, since the danger that I hold an ace is very high (and only a very few players even dream of bluffing on the river in cases like this, much less actually execute one). If I have something like pocket jacks, I will fold to his obvious aces full. If I hold an ace, I will call, and we will chop. And in the unlikely instance that I hold either A-8 or 7-7, I will reraise, and he will call and lose two extra bets, which is what happened.



Against a sheriff who cannot lay down a hand and always thinks the other guy may be bluffing, MP's raise may occasionally gain. Against a good player, though, the raise cannot gain, and may lose. So, yes, I am advocating that MP simply call on the river when he makes aces full.



You may be asking, "If you will lay down a hand like pocket kings to a raise here, can't you be bluffed out of the pot?" Yes, I can. Since I will have an ace frequently on this betting sequence, a bluff-raise would be expensive and highly risky. Against certain very imaginative players, I would even have to call it. Against most players I can rest easy, because a bluff-raise would not even occur to them, and they certainly would not attempt to execute one like this.



You also may be wondering why I reraised with my A-8 when he might have pocket sevens. Can't we use the same logic that I used in suggesting his raise was incorrect? The answer is that the player in question is not a strong, analytical player. If he were, the reraise could be wrong, since he would not have raised with only an ace.



CASE NO. 2 – THE NUT FLUSH: One of my students submitted the following hand, which makes a similar point.



You hold the A 6 and play it, probably because you are in the blind (I hope). Several limpers also are in. Somehow, you survive the flop of the K 9 7, perhaps because everyone checks or perhaps because you play badly. The 3 on the turn gives you the nut-flush draw as well as some hope for a 3 or ace to give you the best hand. The river fits your wishes, as the 10 falls. You bet out, and an expert player raises. Now what?



Start by asking yourself what the expert player can have. Obviously, he can be bluffing, trying to run you off some non-nut flush. Alternatively, he can have a hand that he thinks may be the best, like the K. Finally, he can have one of the two straight flushes possible, the J 8 or the 8 6.



If he has one of the first two possibilities, your hand is the nuts. But what can you accomplish with a raise? If you raise, he will "know" you have the A, and will fold. If he has the straight flush, of course he will reraise. Since raising cannot win more money and could possibly lose more, you should simply call. Yes, many of your opponents will make fun of you when you win the pot by simply showing down the nut flush, but you will still have made the proper play and do not need to educate them. Be glad they have the wrong impression of you at the poker table.



Once again, the first thing most people ask is, "Couldn't I be bluffing? Wouldn't he have to call my three-bet in case I am?" For you to be bluffing, you would have to three-bet a raiser on the river with four hearts showing when you do not have the A. Unfortunately, if you do not hold the A, it is extremely likely that your opponent does. Only because you actually do hold it do you know that your opponent does not. A bluff reraise into an opponent who raises on the river with a four-flush showing must be one of the least likely plays in poker.



CONCLUSION: Please remember that this column assumes that you are playing against a very strong player (that was me in the first example). This type of player considers what his opponents are holding and what they might be thinking about before reacting to their plays. Many people never play against such players, but if you play in the middle limits or higher, you will run into some sooner or later.



I also want to emphasize that I am not telling you not to raise such players on the river. They are human, and can easily call you with a worse hand in many types of situations.



But when there is only one hand you can have to make the raise, and your strong opponent will realize it and fold every hand that cannot beat you and raise with others, you should just call. Your opponent will rarely have the only hand that can beat you, but recognizing it will save you money.

Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his web site at www.barrytanenbaum.com or e-mail him at [email protected].