Facing an Overbet

It's the very early stages of a no-limit hold'em (NLH) freezeout tournament. You have the same $500 stack with which you started. The blinds are $10-$20, and you're in the big blind. Everyone folds to the cutoff, who surprisingly goes all in for $500. It's folded around to you. How strong a hand do you need in order to call all in?



This situation came up recently for my friend Randy, when Carmine raised all in from the cutoff. As it turned out, Randy had a garbage hand that he easily folded. But later on, he asked me, "If you were in my shoes, knowing nothing about Carmine, what hands would you have called with?" As we talked about it, we realized that our reasoning differed to some degree, which led to an interesting discussion.



We Started By Assessing The Competition And Ourselves

Carmine clearly made a weak play by risking $500 to win $30 worth of blinds, no matter what cards he had. A strong NLH player would never have made such a huge overbet, so we can assume that he's not a strong player. Then the question becomes, is he a wild man who is pushing all in with any two cards, or does he at least have an above-average hand and is simply pushing it too hard?



We decided to assume the latter, figuring that it's better to err on the side of caution. Maybe as the tournament progresses, it will become clear that he's a maniac, and then Randy can adjust his standards accordingly. But, at this early stage of the tournament, there is no need for Randy to gamble unnecessarily, hoping that Carmine was raising with any two cards.



That is especially true when you consider that Randy is a very strong tournament player (you can take my word for it). He usually can build his chips gradually as the field thins down, and has little need to take chances early on. With that in mind, he would not want to risk all of his chips without believing that he had a clear edge. So, we found ourselves working under a few assumptions:

1. Carmine was not a strong player.

2. However, he probably had some sort of decent hand.

3. Given Randy's tournament ability, he did not want to call unless he was extremely confident that he had the best hand.



We then discussed how strong Randy's hand would need to be in order to call. Obviously, his money is in there with pocket aces, but let's look at some other possible hands and what we thought of them.



K-K

We both agreed that, clearly, he should call with pocket kings. Would Carmine really have put in such a crazy overbet with pocket aces? It's highly unlikely. We can usually assume that with A-A, he would want to make a more reasonable raise to try to get some action.



Besides, how often are you going to fold K-K preflop, anyway? I think I've done it twice in 10 years, and I certainly wouldn't do it here. The way I look at it, if Carmine made a $500 raise with aces, God bless him, as he would probably bust Randy. After all, it's no different than what would happen if he had made a more reasonable raise. Randy would reraise with K-K, and at some point he would probably end up all in anyway. This way, it just happens a little quicker. If you get K-K and happen to run into A-A in a no-limit hold'em tournament, there's not much you can do.



Q-Q
As with K-K, Randy and I both agreed that Q-Q is a clear call. It's just as unlikely that Carmine would bet $500 with K-K as he would with A-A. In both cases, he would want some action, so it's difficult to believe that he would want to blast everyone off his hand. The main difference between K-K and Q-Q is that we are now not as excited about the possibility of facing A-K. But even if he shows up with big slick, we'd still be a small favorite with our queens, so we agree that there is no way we could fold in that spot.



J-J and A-K

Here's where Randy and I started to diverge a little bit. Randy said that without a doubt, he would confidently call with A-K. He added that he probably would call with pocket jacks, also, but would not feel as confident. His reasoning was that Carmine's most likely hands were ace-rag or two big cards. If Carmine had A-X, (with X being a jack or lower), Randy would be similarly favored with either A-K or J-J. However, he reasoned that Carmine easily could have a hand like K-Q, in which case he would much rather have A-K than J-J.



My problem with Randy's analysis was that he ignored the very real possibility of a small pocket pair. In my experience, I have seen more players overbet the pot preflop with a small pocket pair than any other hand. They know that most flops will appear unfavorable, so they make a ridiculously big bet to try to end the hand before the flop. They are gambling that they have the only pocket pair out there, and if any player wants to challenge them with overcards, he will have to pay dearly.



When analyzing Carmine's possible hands, I thought that a small pocket pair and ace-rag were equally strong possibilities, and then a hand such as two high cards was the much less likely third choice. For that reason, I would be extremely confident in calling with pocket jacks. There's a chance that he has overcards, in which case I am only a slight favorite, but I consider that to be the least likely of my favorable possibilities. If he has ace-rag, I am a significant favorite, and if he has an underpair, I am a heavy favorite. No matter what, I like my hand, and in most cases, I like it a lot.



What about A-K? I do not share Randy's enthusiasm for A-K in that spot, and while I might call with it, I think there is a very real chance that I would lay it down. It would depend on my gut instinct. If I thought Carmine's most likely hand was a rag ace, obviously I'd want my money in there. However, if I thought he might have a small pair, I'd feel perfectly fine laying down the A-K and waiting for a better spot. I have no reason to gamble for all of my chips as a small underdog, especially if I am a strong tournament player such as Randy and can work my way through the field.



I'm not saying I would necessarily lay it down. A-K is a tough preflop laydown, and while I've done it before, it was in situations in which my opponent clearly had a strong pocket pair. I'm just trying to drive home the point that if I'm facing a large preflop overbet, I feel much more comfortable with a semistrong pocket pair. On the other hand, Randy would feel better with the A-K.



10-10, A-Q, and so on
Similar logic prevailed as we went down the line of premium hands. I would call with 10-10 and probably even 9-9, since I believe that a small pocket pair is such a distinct possibility for Carmine. Somewhat arbitrarily, I would draw the line at pocket eights. As for the big cards, I probably wouldn't call with A-Q, because now I am not only a small dog against the small pairs, but I might run into A-K and be very unhappy. I decided that A-Q was right on the cusp of hands with which I might call (assuming that I did not judge Carmine to be a maniac), but I would dump any other non-pair hand.



Randy strongly disagreed. Unlike me, he did not consider a small pocket pair to be one of Carmine's probable holdings. Instead, he was very adamant that Carmine's most likely hands were ace-anything or two facecards. Therefore, he favored dumping any pair tens or lower, with the logic that he could very easily be up against two overcards. However, he said he definitely would call with A-Q, and probably with A-J, as well. Go figure.



In the end, we agreed to disagree, but came away believing that it was a worthwhile conversation. Whether you agree with Randy's point of view or mine, or neither, you might want to give this topic a little thought. You never know if you might be the one facing an overbet in your next NLH tournament.

Matt Lessinger is the author of The Book of Bluffs (How to Bluff and Win at Poker), which will be available on Nov. 1. You can find more of Matt's articles in the Online Poker News at www.CardPlayer.com.