When Should I Make a Move?

Victor, one of my loyal readers, recently e-mailed me with a provocative question about the timing of his moves in online tournaments:



"Dear Tom, I play lots of tournaments, trying to improve my game, but I'm having a very difficult time when playing online events. I always seem to self-destruct by trying to muscle my way into some chips after the blinds and antes have gone up. I might have an average stack and try to make a few moves to become a contender, but then I get my butt spanked by some of the weak players. My question is, should I stop making moves altogether? If so, I really need to hear it from you. Should I be playing 'best-hand' poker right from the start to the finish?"



The answer to both of Victor's questions is no. You should not stop making moves, but you need to use a lot of judgment as to when and against whom you make them. And you don't need to play best-hand poker throughout. In the early rounds with the blinds and antes small in relation to the starting chips, you can play a few more hands, like suited connectors and small pairs, that don't cost a lot of chips to see the flop. Now let's take a look at a decisive hand in Victor's latest online tournament and critique his play:



"I was playing in an 1,100-player no-limit hold'em online tournament, with 99 places being paid," he said. "With 127 players left, I limped in with the K 4. The flop came with the J 9 4, giving me a flush draw with bottom pair and an overcard kicker. The stacks were pretty deep at this point, so I decided to go all in with a check-raise. I figured I would be a decided underdog only to a set. The button bet $12,000 and I went all in with my remaining $50,000. My opponent called, having flopped top pair with his K-J and sharing my overcard kicker, which reduced my outs considerably."



Victor claimed that he ran the simulation and figured he had about a 37 percent win rate. He went on to say that even though this was a bad scenario, he believed his play was justified because his opponent might have laid down top pair in this situation. Unfortunately, he missed his flush draw and got eliminated from the tournament.



"To start with, should I have played the K-4 suited?" he wondered. "And should I have been willing to risk all of my chips on the flop when I flopped a good draw?" He then added that the other players were so bad that making moves against them was suicide.



Actually, I'm sure that Victor has probably figured out the answers already. Playing K-4 late in a tournament is not such a great play to begin with. And thinking that the "bad players" might fold top pair to an all-in raise is just not realistic.



Putting all of your chips in, taking a big gamble on a draw, is a very high-risk proposition. It's one thing to be the original bettor. But, it's quite another thing to face a big bet by an opponent, and then put all of your money in, hoping that he will fold or that you will draw out if he calls. That is a lot of hoping and wishing.



Late in a tournament, especially against players who will call you much of the time, Victor has already figured out that it is suicide to make plays against them without having the best hand. True, you can always get lucky and draw out, but why not wait for a better hand and a better situation to put your money in? I believe that Victor needs to take a few more chances in the early rounds, when the penalty for losing is not his entire stack, and then tighten up in the later rounds.



I appreciated Victor's kind remarks in closing: "The first book I ever read on no-limit hold'em was the one you wrote with Brad Daugherty (No-Limit Texas Hold'em: The New Players Guide to Winning)." Since then, he has read "a ton of other books," but our primer for beginners laid the foundation for his game.



On another subject, The Wildhorse Resort and Casino in Pendleton, Oregon, had a record turnout for its Fall Poker Roundup. If you wish to attend the upcoming Spring Poker Roundup, make your reservations early or risk not getting a room at the Wildhorse or a nearby location. I hope to meet you there in the winner's circle.

Tom McEvoy is a representative of PokerStars.com and is the voice of ProPlay. Find out more at www.ProPlaylive.com/tommcevoy.