Evelyn's Boo-Boo in the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship

I was very excited about the second-annual National Heads-Up Poker Championship on NBC, especially after seeing what a marvelous job they did covering the first one.



The night before the start of the tournament, there was a party to reveal the first-round matchups, and virtually every player was on hand to be a part of it. I waited in anticipation for my first-round matchup. Before the event started, if someone had asked me which player I'd least like to face in the first round, my answer would have been Evelyn Ng.



Why Evelyn? Well, for one thing, I've known Evelyn longer than any other person in the poker world. We dated as teenagers and made the move to Las Vegas at around the same time. Playing her in the first round would be a lose-lose situation for me. If I lost, that would suck, because I'd be out of the event. Yet, if I won, I'd crush Evelyn's aspirations of moving on to the second round. And that's not to mention the fact that Evelyn always gives me a tough match. We've practiced together online and she generally beats me. Her style is one that I helped her develop. It's a style that is precisely the way to beat guys like me, Ivey, Gus, and some of the other top players in the world.

But, it turned out that she would be my first opponent, so going in, I was a little nervous. However it ended, I wanted it to be quick and painless for whichever one of us lost. In the early going, she was really taking the play to me and playing exceptionally well. I'm generally known for grinding down my opponent, but Evelyn was grinding me down in the early stages. In fact, she amassed quite a chip lead against me with approximately $26,000 in chips to my $14,000. The following hand was the crucial hand of the match:



With the blinds at $200-$400, Evelyn raised from the button to $1,200 with the 7 4. I looked down at the J 9 and decided to take a flop with her.



The flop came down J 4 3, giving me top pair with a lousy kicker. I checked to Evelyn and she fired out a bet of $1,600. With that $1,600 bet lying out there, there was now $4,000 in the pot for me to go after. Winning this pot would pull me very close to even in the match. Of course, if she had me beat, it could be all over right there and then.



Since Evelyn was playing pretty aggressively both before and after the flop, just as I had taught her, I had to take a wild guess as to whether my jacks were good. Once I decided to play on, I had to decide how to proceed.



I could (a) just call and see what developed on the turn, (b) move all in, or © make a tiny check-raise.



I didn't think (a) was a good option since I was out of position and there were too many scary cards that could come on the turn that might cause me to get bluffed. And © just seemed like a silly play. If I raised the $1,600 bet, I'd have to put half of my chips in anyway, so I might as well just go all in.



That's what I did; I went all in for $11,000 more. By going all in, I was hoping that Evelyn might decide to call me with a hand like 8-8, thinking that I was on a flush draw. She even asked me if I was on a flush draw, which made me feel great about my hand. After long deliberation, Evelyn folded her hand and allowed me to get back to even.



Now, there are several things to think about in relation to the mistake that Evelyn made:



1. Pot odds – Evelyn had to call $11,000 to win $16,600. She was getting an excellent price on her drawing hand, especially since her hand couldn't be that big an underdog. In this case, she was a 51 percent favorite. If I had a higher flush draw, her pair of fours were in the lead. Let's look at a few of the hands I could have had:

J 9: 49 percent

J J: 70.8 percent

K Q:48.6 percent

5 6: 35.2 percent



As you can see, only a set has Evelyn in trouble, as she would be a favorite over any other hand. Also, even against the set, she will win the pot almost 30 percent of the time. Factor all of that in, and you have to make the call.



2. Protect your children – One of the biggest mistakes you can make in a no-limit game is to bet yourself off a draw. When you are in position with a drawing hand, you have the option of taking the free card, or betting to protect in order to pick up the pot on the flop. The second option, however, is much riskier, since your opponent can now check-raise you and force you off the draw.



If you bet your draw on the flop, think about what you'll do if your opponent moves all in before making the bet.



3. Go for the kill – When you have an opportunity to finish off your opponent, it is sometimes correct to take slightly the worst of it, especially if your opponent is a strong player. The idea here is that Evelyn should welcome the opportunity to flip a coin to end it all. If she wins the coin toss, it's game over and she advances to the second round. If she loses the coin toss, she can still claw her way back into the match, as she'll still have about $12,000 to my $28,000.



As it turned out, I went on a nice little rush shortly after that key hand and ended up winning the match. Evelyn played so well throughout the match, with this one major exception. That is the beautiful yet treacherous thing about no-limit hold'em that makes it so special. One little mistake can often mean the difference between winning and losing.



My next opponent in the tournament was 2005 World Series of Poker Champion Greg Raymer. Get my take on that match in the next issue.

Read Daniel's poker blog or play with him online at http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/.