Grading the NFL Coaches

As promised in my last column on grading the NFL coaches, this time we'll take a look at the AFC. As always when it comes to coaches as a sports-betting factor, my caveat applies. A team's coach can be an edge, but he is not always the definitive edge versus the spread in team sports, where obvious strengths can be easily neutralized by a stroke of the oddsmaker's pen. Still, the coaching factor usually makes a difference over the course of the season. In this issue, we take a look at the 2006 AFC coaches.

BILL BELICHICK, New England, A. Three Super Bowl titles in the last five years pretty much define how good Belichick is. In the last three seasons (including the playoffs), Belichick's Pats are 45-11 in a league in which it's usually difficult just to finish above .500. Despite his success, Belichick is always striving to invigorate his team with salary-cap-friendly new blood, and he actively seeks out new coaching concepts. He's more flexible than his mentor, Bill Parcells. He's 19-11-1 as a dog the last five years (including the playoffs), and 15-7 versus the spread after a straight-up loss.

BILL COWHER, Pittsburgh, A. Unlike many veteran NFL coaches who tend to become burned out and rigid after long stays in one place, Cowher (15th year) has remained enthusiastic and open-minded; enough so to trust his team to young Ben Roethlisberger the last two seasons. Last year's Steelers were reflecting their coach's jut-jawed image when they went from 7-5 and out of playoff position late in the season, to wild-card berth, to consecutive road playoff wins over the AFC's top three seeds, to Super Bowl championship. He's 9-3 as a dog the last two years.

MIKE SHANAHAN, Denver, A-. Some say I'm too easy on Shanahan. Obviously, I do not agree, because it is extremely difficult to contend year after year after year in the NFL. Unlike some coaches who get overwhelmed, Shanahan always has a play in mind to fit the situation, and he always produces a ground game despite talent limitations. He nearly coaxed a Super Bowl season out of impulsive Jake Plummer last year. He does not shy away from winning in the preseason (19-6 straight up the last six years; 17-7-1 versus the spread, including 10-2 on the road).

NICK SABAN, Miami, A-. This high grade for the second-year Dolphin coach includes some of the positive traits he displayed earlier at Michigan State and LSU. Saban is confident, demanding, and hands-on. He knows what he wants in terms of player talent and game execution, and he usually gets it. Miami won its last six games last season to finish 9-7 with very marginal talent. He is a former assistant and current friend of Belichick, but he's definitely his own man.

JEFF FISHER, Tennessee, B+. The down-to-earth Fisher is in his 12th season with the Titans and might be getting too comfortable. Yes, cap problems and injuries have cut deeply the last two years, but Fisher was not seen asserting himself when Steve McNair was being forced out and Vince Young appeared to be forced in by owner Bud Adams. Fisher was 15-5 straight up (7-0 as a dog) in preseason from 2000 to 2004 until going 1-3 straight up (and versus the spread) last year.

HERM EDWARDS, Kansas City, B+. In the media fishbowl that is New York, Edwards somehow got blamed for much of the Jets' 4-12 season when, in fact, devastating injuries in the backfield and offensive line made victory nearly impossible. I view Edwards as a thorough, no-nonsense, highly competent coach who got the Jets to overachieve for most of his five years. He's a former Dick Vermeil pupil who is the perfect replacement for his mentor in K.C.

TONY DUNGY, Indianapolis, B+. Once again last year, the respected Dungy couldn't get his top contender over the hump and into the Super Bowl, even while owning the home-field edge in the AFC playoffs. But in view of the suicide death of his son, I choose not to be unnecessarily harsh. Dungy is steady and even-tempered, which some players interpret as passivity (not a good trait in football). He briefly considered retirement after last season.

JACK DEL RIO, Jacksonville, B+. He's a young coach who has shown excellent development in his three seasons, going 5-11, 9-7, and 12-4 while rebuilding the roster and breaking in a young QB. His players are very eager, play hard, and don't quit.

BRIAN BILLICK, Baltimore, B. Overconfidence got the best of the bright and ebullient Billick after he guided Trent Dilfer and the offensively hampered Ravens to the Super Bowl title in the 2000 season. He thought he could do the same thing with young Kyle Boller. Now, Billick's job is on the line and he's promising improvement, hoping Steve McNair can help.

MARVIN LEWIS, Cincinnati, B (But Ready To Move Up). He deserves kudos for standing up to the penurious Cincy management, for upgrading team facilities, and for developing the Bengals from an L.A. Clippers-like laughingstock into a contender. But his defense - his alleged specialty - has been the team's weakness. He now must guide Carson Palmer's return from injury. He's 5-1 versus the spread in exhibitions after a straight-up loss.

MARTY SCHOTTENHEIMER, San Diego, B. He's the master and commander of the crushing loss in crucial games. He was eager to replace Drew Brees with rookie Philip Rivers to start 2004 until Rivers held out. Two years later, with Brees by then a premium property, Marty started Brees in the meaningless 2005 finale even though Rivers needed the experience. Brees wrecked his shoulder and wasn't re-signed. Now, the otherwise playoff-ready Chargers are probably at least a year away - again. Don't get me started about Marty.

DICK JAURON, Buffalo, C+. He went 35-46 in five years with the Bears from 1999 to 2003, but would have been a sorry 22-43 except for their miracle 13-3 in 2001. He's strong on fundamentals and defense, but severely challenged in terms of inspiration and offense.

ROMEO CRENNEL, Cleveland, C+. In his first year, the former New England defensive assistant showed positive signs by cleaning out lots of deadwood and getting his team to play with greater gusto and concentration. He must prove he can develop the young Browns' offense.

ART SHELL, Oakland, C. He probably deserves a higher grade on the merit of his 56-41 mark with the Raiders from 1989 to 1994, but he has spent the last five years in the NFL front office. And he rehired his old Raider offensive coordinator, Tom Walsh, who has been out of football since 1999! Can a move "back to the past" still work in a faster, more specialized era?

GARY KUBIAK, Houston, Incomplete. After 11 years as Mike Shanahan's top lieutenant, Kubiak is seeking to pretty much turn Houston into the "Denver Broncos, Texan-style," complete with the zone-blocking running schemes, play-action offense, mobile QB, and the attack 4-3 defense. The former Texas A&M QB turned down earlier opportunities as head man until his hometown called.

ERIC MANGINI, New York Jets, Incomplete. The youngest coach in the league, the 35-year-old Mangini is a Bill Belichick clone through and through, having started his association with his mentor as a 23-year-old ball boy back in Cleveland. Mangini coaches, acts, and even dresses like Belichick, but has only one year as a coordinator (on defense). Plus, the two are in the same division. Unfortunately, teachers tend to dominate pupils until proven otherwise.

Chuck Sippl ([email protected]) is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the extraordinary 2006 Gold Sheet Football Annual on newsstands. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player magazine. You can check out The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.