Should You Switch to No-Limit Hold'em? Part V - Which Games Should You Choose?

If you have recently converted to no-limit hold'em (NL), you must select your games carefully. If you pick well, you can quickly become a winner. If you choose poorly, you will almost certainly become a loser.

Game selection is always important. As Roy Cooke wrote: "Your success at poker depends not on how well you play, but on how well you play in relation to your opponents … This presents a significant problem … almost all players put themselves closer to the front of the pack than they deserve to be." ("A Great Game?" Card Player, May 10, 2002)

Game Selection is More Important in NL Than Limit

There are several reasons for this. First, NL rewards and punishes differences in abilities much more than limit. If you are stronger than your opponents, you will win faster in NL; if you are weaker, you will lose faster. In limit, a bad move will cost you a bet or a pot, but in NL, it can cost you your stack.

Second, NL demands many more abilities than limit. In addition to deciding what to do, you must decide how much to bet, call, or raise, and you must always consider everyone's stack size, skill, style, and other psychological factors.

Third, inaccurately assessing yourself and your opposition is particularly common when you first switch to NL. You may not recognize your weaknesses and your opponents' strengths. For example, many new NL players greatly overemphasize selecting good starting hands and look down at people who play weak cards. But hand selection is much less formulaic in NL. Under certain conditions, you should play weaker hands in NL than limit.

Fourth, NL demands certain psychological traits, and - because you're new to NL - you may not know whether you have them. See Part II - The Critical Psychological Traits (June 13, 2006). For example, until you have faced many all-in bets, you can't know how you will handle them. Perhaps you will remain cool and analytical, perhaps not. Certain types of games can create too much pressure for you.

What Should You Look For?
Assume that you don't know any of the players, the blinds are $1-$2, and the buy-in is exactly $100. To pick good NL games, you must consider stack sizes and think differently about the pattern of action.

Stack sizes
In limit, they don't matter much, and you may want large stacks because people are probably gambling, and you can win more money. But in capped NL games, large stacks have a very different meaning. Let's say that you can choose between two games:

1. A brand-new one. Everyone has exactly $100.

2. One that has been going for a while. The average stack is $400, the smallest is $200, and the largest is more than $1,000.

Although No. 2 seems to have more potential, avoid it, because at least some - perhaps even most - of the players are winners. Remember, they could not buy those chips; they had to win them. Some of them may have rebought, but they still had to win repeatedly to build those stacks.

They are probably stronger players, and winning usually makes people play better. They become more confident, decisive, and aggressive. Also, because they have larger stacks than yours, they can run over you. You don't have the experience, judgement, and emotional control to challenge tough players with large stacks.

In addition, the first game's players are probably strangers to each other as well as to you. After playing together, the second game's people know how the others play. You have to study nine players, while they can concentrate on learning about you.

The pattern of action
The action is always an important factor in game selection, but you must think about it differently in NL, especially when you lack experience. Let's say that no seats are open. All of the tables have roughly the same stack sizes: an average of about $200, with the smallest less than $30 and the largest more than $500. While waiting for a seat, you see three very different patterns:

1. A "limpfest." Most pots are not raised preflop, and an average of six people see most flops. Post-flop bets are small, raises are infrequent and small, and many hands go to a showdown, often with more than two players. There is hardly any bluffing and no huge bluffs.

2. Wildly aggressive. Most pots are raised, and the first raise averages more than $20. Reraises occur quite often, frequently for entire stacks, making monster pots.

3. Tight-aggressive. Most pots are "raise and take it," with an average first raise to $7. Most hands don't get to the flop, and if there is one, usually only two or three players see it. Few hands go to showdown.

Table three is obviously not right for you. Avoid tight-aggressive games, especially in NL. You can't win much money, and you won't have much fun.

Table two may seem attractive, but it is much too dangerous. Even if you crush wild games when playing limit, avoid them until you become comfortable with NL's huge swings. A friend of mine who plays NL very well disagrees. He thinks you can beat wild games just by waiting for premium hands and pushing them hard. That strategy would work, but as a new NL player, you probably can't use it.

Wild games can create more stress than you can handle. You don't have the experience or judgment to decide how far to go with many hands. You may play too many hands, go too far with them, or get run over; you may even shift back and forth from playing too timidly to playing too aggressively. And the inevitable losses of your stack - even when you have the best of it - can severely upset you. You can't play poker well unless you're calm and controlled, and you probably can't do it in a wild NL game.

Until you have more experience, don't try for huge wins. The games that can produce big wins will often cause huge losses. Strive for frequent small wins until you become competent and comfortable.

The limpfest is the place to be. People who limp in frequently are loose-passive, and they don't know much about NL. Loose-passive players are the easiest to beat in all forms of poker, and they are especially easy in NL. They will rarely make large bets, and when they do, you can easily get away from your hand. And when you have a winner, they will often pay you off. Perhaps they won't pay off a huge bet, but they still call more than they bet, adding to your edge.

Always Consider Your Own Emotional Reactions
Poker experts generally ignore emotions, but they affect everything you do. Experts focus on how you should play, not on the emotional and other factors that make you (and most other people) react irrationally.

Any kind of game can cause emotional reactions. For example, you may become so bored in tight-aggressive games that you play too many hands. The limpfest players will repeatedly frustrate you by beating your good hands with trash. But wild games arouse the strongest feelings, a volatile combination of greed, excitement, fear, and machismo. The risk of losing your entire stack can cause two diametrically opposed reactions: playing scared and playing sheriff.

Playing scared is always destructive, but it is deadly in NL. You may check when you should bet, call when you should raise, and make small bets and raises when you should make large ones. You won't get full value from your good hands, and giving away cheap or free cards will cost you many pots. Some players will sense your fear and steal your pots.

Playing sheriff is the macho overreaction: You may lose your stack by overplaying some hands just to prove, "Nobody runs over me!"

NL is a very stressful game, and because you haven't faced some of its stresses, you may not know how you will react to them. For example, until you have to risk a large stack, you don't know how you will feel or act. Wild games add to the stress: By forcing you to make difficult decisions, they will repeatedly test your emotional reactions. Don't face those tests until you're ready for them.

Final Remarks
If you select the wrong games, you may become so frustrated that you give up on NL before learning whether it is right for you. Conversely, if you select the right ones, you may start winning almost immediately, and you will certainly feel more comfortable and get better results.

Dr. Schoonmaker ([email protected]) coaches only on psychology issues, such as controlling impulses, coping with losing streaks, going on tilt, and planning your poker career.