The New Look of Newcomers in College Football

Because of several influencing factors in recent years, the landscape for newcomers in college football has changed substantially.

First, a few years ago, the NCAA experimented by allowing teams, if desired, to add a 12th game to their schedules when there were enough weekends in the fall months. After returning to the normal 11 games for 2004 and 2005, the governing body – noting how schools benefited from the extra revenue generated by that 12th game – now allows teams to schedule 12 regular-season games each year. In order to fill out those expanded schedules, many teams added Division I-AA opponents, providing most Division I-A teams with both a near-certain victory and a chance to give game-valuable experience to their backups and/or younger players, developing them for the rugged conference games coming up later.



Meanwhile, the ever-increasing prosperity of the NFL has enabled the pro league to increase its salaries (including guaranteed money) for high draft choices to eye-opening amounts, especially considering the fact those draft picks bank many of the big bucks before they ever play a down of NFL football. Thus, the temptation for top college players to turn pro after their NFL-required third season mounts every year (and with every major injury suffered by a high-profile college player). Most of today's college stars want to "start" the clock on their play-for-pay careers as soon as they're eligible, if they expect they will be a high NFL draft pick.



Another important factor has been the surprising success of Pete Carroll at USC. As you recall, the proud Trojans had suffered a series of relative misfires at head coach (Ted Tollner, Larry Smith, and the infamous Paul Hackett) before hiring Carroll, the former NFL assistant and head coach (Pats, Jets) who literally had to introduce himself to the USC search committee and then campaign aggressively for the job, which had become unattractive to many big-time coaches.



Carroll did two very important things in rebuilding Southern Cal from a losing team in 2000 to a group that came within last year's fourth-down play versus Texas of winning three straight national titles. First, Carroll refused to honor a high-school player's prior verbal commitment in recruiting (greatly annoying other coaches in doing so), continuing his dogged attempts to get blue-chip players to go to USC. To Carroll, as long as it was not officially in writing, a recruit had not committed to college. Second, he honestly promised blue-chippers that they would get a chance to compete for starting jobs, and to win them, if good enough as true freshmen. While most college coaches coyly give lip service to such promises in order to win over recruits, Carroll said it and meant it, with young players such as wide receiver Mike Williams and running backs Reggie Bush and LenDale White all making big contributions as true frosh. Thus, Carroll has landed more premium, blue-chip, NFL-potential high-school players than any other coach during his tenure.



Because of Carroll's near-immediate success, big-time coaches are now far less hesitant to play talented freshmen early in their careers. Now, more newcomers get a chance than ever before.



The combination of the longer 12-game regular-season schedule, the attraction of NFL rookie contracts, and the Carroll-inspired willingness to play blue-chippers immediately has led to a rather mind-blowing rate of annual turnover in college personnel. Thus, sports handicappers looking for wagering success must be more flexible than ever in their preseason analysis of teams, always being on the lookout for teams whose new players (redshirt frosh, junior-college additions, and transfers from other schools, in addition to true frosh) will make a definitive impact in their first seasons.



The ever-expanding TV coverage of college football helps sports bettors keep up with the feats of newcomers, but mostly those from top-40 teams. And the explosion of interest in high-school football recruits (dozens now announce their college choices on TV) has led to the development of dozens of Internet sites that focus solely on following and grading high-school players. The problem is that many of those ballyhooed blue-chippers never become college stars.



Here are a few simple handicapping guidelines when it comes to college newcomers:



Regardless of the preseason hype, all newcomers must prove themselves on the field of battle. Blue-chippers can fail for a number of reasons. Many high-school coaches, in order to help their players get scholarships, often exaggerate their players' height, weight, and speed. And high-school competition varies greatly from league to league. Many players were stars in high school simply because their bodies matured early. They might never add size or speed once they get to college. Many high-schoolers have to change positions once they get to college. And, regardless of their ability, recruits have to get used to a new system and adapt to the challenges and temptations of college life. During college signing week, the recruiting gurus are all over TV, singing the praises of the high-schoolers. I have never seen them, two or three years down the road, explaining how they possibly could have been so far off.



Newcomers must continue to "prove it" as the level of competition increases. If a true frosh running back romps for a school-record 260 yards in a home game versus outclassed Indiana State, it doesn't mean he can do it on the road in a game at Ohio State. For my money, all new quarterbacks must show me first that they can win, then win on the road, then beat a big-time team on the road, then win a bowl game, and so on. Winning (and covering) games becomes much tougher as the pressure increases. Yes, many of the blue-chippers do pan out. But, the number of prized QB recruits who turn out to be terrible disappointments in college is quite impressive. And the number of eventual college stars who were recruiting afterthoughts is equally amazing. It turns out that "heart" and work ethic in college frequently make up for a lack of premium talent.



The engine of success for offensive newcomers is a team's offensive line. It is amazing how brilliant some young running backs can look when a veteran, well-oiled offensive line repeatedly breaks them into an opponent's secondary virtually untouched. And it's no surprise to me if a five-star running back recruit looks like a terrible "mistake" as he fights merely to get back to the line of scrimmage behind a group of inexperienced linemen. Every QB looks better when his offensive line is having success grinding out yardage on the ground. And even the best QB can suck when a good defense knows what's coming. It happens over and over every year. Football is still a violent, aggressive, territorial game. So, if you want to speculate on whether a team's blue-chip newcomer will rumble in his next game, dig out that crucial information on his team's "big uglies" up front. That basic knowledge will help you cash more winning tickets than the headlines, hype, and highlights will.



Chuck Sippl ([email protected]) is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the extraordinary 2006 Gold Sheet Football Annual on newsstands. Or, you can get your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can check out The Gold Sheet on the web at http://www.goldsheet.com/.