Can You Get Rich Playing Tournaments?

Can you get rich playing tournaments? Somebody will. It might be you or me. But realistically, what should we expect to make if we play in a lot of tournaments. All Card Player readers should be familiar with the concept of "expectation," when used in a mathematical or statistical context. Briefly, it is the average result that would be achieved if an infinite number of trials were held. If I flip a coin for $100, my expectation is zero. My real result will be either plus $100 or minus $100, but on average, I "expect" to break even.



If an average poker player plays in a poker tournament with a $1,000 buy-in, what is his expectation? This is an easy question. He will break even. Well, he will really break even before fees, tips, and expenses.



If a great poker player plays in the same tournament, what is his expectation? This is a very difficult question. What are some of the factors that make it difficult to answer? How good is he at the specific game being played? How good is he at tournaments (as opposed to cash games)? How fast is the structure? How good is he relative to other players? Is he rested, sober, and ready to play his best? The list is almost endless. There is no way to quantify all the significant factors and arrive at an answer by mathematical calculation.



So, if we can't answer it mathematically, is there any other way to arrive at an answer? We can try to approximate it, by looking at the statistics of some great players. We certainly can't average the results of the most successful players, as all of these players have been lucky. Some, but certainly not all, are also good, and a few are great. If we average the lifetime tournament results of the last five main-event winners at the World Series of Poker, we might end up thinking that a great player will win $50,000 for every $1,000 paid in entry fees. In order to make it easy, I decided to select two very successful tournament players, who have played in numerous tournaments over a long period of time, and see if I could approximate their expectation.



I chose Phil Hellmuth and Men Nguyen. Both have been playing tournaments for approximately 20 years. Both play a lot of tournaments. Phil is arguably the best hold'em tournament player. (If you have any doubt, just ask him.) His prodigious tournament skills have enabled him to finish in the money in a variety of games, even some at which he probably is not particularly proficient. Men is more of an all-around player. He has been not only a consistent tournament winner, but also a consistent contender in the Card Player Player of the Year race, winning it four times. CardPlayer.com has more coverage of their many accomplishments. According to that database, Phil has winnings of around $6,350,000, and Men, $5,050,000. (I am not sure when these figures were last updated. Their current totals are almost certainly higher.)



Remember that these numbers represent their grossreturn. No expenses have been deducted. Let's try to approximate what they have paid in entry fees. There are now more tournaments with high entry fees than ever before. This year, a hardworking player could play in a $50,000 event, a $25,000 event, a $15,000 event, and approximately 30 $10,000 events. Someone attempting every tournament might end up spending more than $500,000 in entry fees alone. Let's say that Phil has averaged $150,000 per year and Men, who plays more small tournaments, has averaged $200,000. Over 20 years, their respective totals would be $3 million and $4 million in entry fees. That now reduces their "earnings" to $3.4 million and $1.1 million.



But what about expenses? Travel and hotel bills aren't included. Phil probably covers more of the globe, but Men often has an entourage with him. Let's say it's $25,000 a year for each. Their nets are now down to $2.9 million and $600,000. If these estimates are close to accurate, Phil earns around 100 percent on his entry fees, while Men manages to make only 15 percent. In reality, some of their earnings come from freerolls and no-entry-fee invitational tournaments, so their real rates of return may be even lower. On the other hand, the CardPlayer.com total winnings may be low and my estimates of costs may be high, so their real results could be better than my estimates.



What conclusion can we draw from all of this? A top tournament player has an expectation of 15 percent to 150 percent of his entry fees. (I know that a lot of players have done better than this. But, can they really expect to continue to do so well or have they just experienced a run of short-term luck?) The current tournament environment includes more weak players than previously, but this is offset by the fact that the amounts deducted for fees and tips have increased. There are many more tournaments, so a successful player has more opportunities to earn, but there are also many more players, so a player needs a much larger bankroll to survive the inevitable fluctuations.



I think my estimates are reasonable. If you entered all of the major tournaments, and averaged 50 percent net return, you'd make a few hundred thousand dollars a year. That's not too shabby. Remember, these estimates are based on the results of two of the most skillful, successful tournament players out there. Do you think you can do better? I know I haven't.