Variance: Your Best Friend and Worst Enemy

After getting back from the fiasco at the Borgata, I returned to the daily grind, multitabling shorthanded hold'em. I decided that it was time to buckle down and really commit to bankroll building and pumping out the hands. For about the past week I've been playing 1,000-2,000 hands a day. Nothing stellar by insane 100-tabling standards, but I'm just a human so I usually play three tables, sometimes four if I'm feeling frisky.



Enter Lady Variance. Call her what you will – luck factor, swings, ups and downs – variance is part of every poker player's life whether we like it or not. Variance is in every poker game and is more in some games and less in others. I choose to play shorthanded limit hold'em, one of the swingiest poker variations. I recently found out that the variance of full ring no-limit hold'em is actually smaller than average, much to my surprise. I'm really not sure about other games, but, regardless of the size of your swings, every player has to deal with them.



This has been one of the swingiest weeks of poker I've had. Take a peek at the graph. These are what the ups and downs I've experienced look like on paper. The span of time? A weekend. These swings aren't even that bad. Other shorthanded players go through much worse. Sure, you might wonder why I would put myself through this kind of roller coaster on a regular basis. To play a high-variance game you need a bigger bankroll to handle the swings. You're much more likely to tilt. A bigger bankroll means you have to play smaller. It's really a high-stress undertaking.

Don't worry – there's an upside. If there wasn't, I wouldn't be doing it. Sure, there are tons of swings for me, but at the end of all the terrible 200-big-bet downswings, I come out a winner. Conversely, the same holds true for bad players. A terrible player will have 200-big-bet upswings, but will be a long-term loser. Terrible players don't usually think about the long term, though. They want to go and win now and win big. A high-variance game can do this for them. So the bonus of playing a high-variance game is that it attracts more fish and, obviously, the more fish, the better.



The more you understand variance, the less you can let it affect your poker career and your life. Downswings and upswings can and will take their toll on you mentally. You lose a bunch of money and you start questioning yourself. Should I have folded the river? Should I have raised the turn? Maybe I should play a different game. Maybe I should play smaller. The doubt sets in. The more you doubt, the worse you play. The worse you play, the more you doubt. It's a tough hole to climb out of. The trick is to focus and inform yourself so that you can look at every action with no emotional attachment. For more information on the topic of downswings and coping, I highly recommend reading Alan Schoonmaker's articles in the magazine archives on CardPlayer.com.



Upswings can fog your mind just as easily as downswings. When you're running hot, you feel invincible. This can lead you into a lot of bad situations. Some might start to play way above their heads. This, of course, leads to the inevitable ruin of everything won during the hot streak – and then some. Some start trying to win every pot. You start to put yourself in negative expected value (-EV) situations because you feel the money's going to be sent your way no matter what. The poker gods are smiling upon you and the flop will magically surround your holecards. This also leads to the dumping of a good upswing and increasing the severity of the next downswing.



The best thing that any poker player can do is try to separate emotions from the game and analyze every situation in its context. Also, be aware of your mental state as it affects a live game. A player might play differently against you when he thinks you're tilting, and the same goes for when you're running over the game. It's important to factor in everything when trying to make a read. Tilt is also a part of the game. I aspire to be tilt-free. I'm not there now, but I'm getting closer. Maybe, I'll get there one day. For now, I'll just have to cope with a long walk and the occasional cigarette.



Here's my first piece of advice: Don't ever run bad.