I was playing poker at Bellagio recently, absolutely getting my brains beaten in, when I felt a tap on my shoulder. It was none other than my friend Craig Hartman, a successful businessman and poker player from Indiana, who wanted to tell me a poker story. Naturally, I couldn't wait to hear every last detail.
He had just been eliminated from the day's $5,000 buy-in no-limit hold'em event, and wanted my opinion on a key hand he played late in the event. He informed me that he had already told several other players about the hand (lucky them!), and their opinions on his play were divided right down the middle.
Here is the situation:
36 players remain in the event; 18 are paid.
The average chip stack is $31,000.
Craig has $15,000, making him the shortest stack at his table.
The blinds are $600-$1,200 with a $100 ante.
Craig has opened the pot to $4,000 from the cutoff position with the 8
7
, and both the button (with $85,000) and big blind (with $100,000) call.
The flop comes A-6-5 rainbow.
The big blind bets $18,000, enough to put Craig all in.
The action is now on Craig …
As Craig told me this story, my first question for him was, "What do you know about your two opponents in the hand?"
Craig's response: "The big blind had just been moved to my table, and was not a player I had played with before. The button seemed to be in 'four corners' stall mode, as he was not eager to gamble at all. It looked like he was concerned with lasting to the money. Also, he wasn't giving off any tells as to what he might do on this particular hand."
The Decision
Craig had two options: Call off his remaining $11,000 in chips with an open-end straight draw, or fold and cling to his tournament life a bit longer, while looking for a better opportunity to get involved.
Before acting, Craig has a number of issues to consider. First, there is the math of the situation: Craig has to call $11,000 in chips into a pot size of either $24,500 (if the button folds) or $35,500 (if he overcalls). The odds of completing his hand are about 2-1 against. So, at first glance, it appears that a call is in order. However, there are some occasions when Craig will make his straight and still lose the pot to either a flush or full house. It appears to be a clear call if Craig knows the button will overcall; otherwise, it is a close mathematical decision.
Another consideration is his table. In my opinion, the tighter his table is playing, the more attractive folding becomes. The reason for this is that although his stack is dwindling, $11,000 still affords Craig a bit of fold equity (meaning he can win pots by raising or moving all in and not getting called). If the table is tight, I think Craig is correct in not risking probable elimination on this hand and waiting until he can be the first player to get his money to the middle. Conversely, at a loose table, where most pots are contested, a better opportunity to grab some chips may not come along, so he may as well gamble now when the pot is large and he is receiving a favorable price.
A third point is the overall prize structure of tournaments. Clearly, it is correct to play to win, rather than to cash, as most of the money lies in the top few spots. But, what does playing to win mean in this instance? Are Craig's overall chances of winning the tournament significantly increased by whether he calls or folds in this spot? I am not going to answer this question mathematically (I will leave that to my good friend Matt Matros); rather, I am basing my answer on the previous point above, relating to his table. I think he is incorrect in risking his tournament life in a situation in which he is a 2-1 favorite to go broke (unless the reward of winning the pot clearly overshadows the risk of losing it, which I don't believe is the case here) if his table is such that he can raise pots with a high probability of not being called. If such is the case, Craig can probably succeed in maintaining his stack until a better situation for a confrontation comes along. However, at a table full of "active" opponents, winning this particular pot probably is crucial to his chances of ultimately winning the tournament.
Craig told me that he was getting away with most of his raises; in fact, this was what prompted him to raise with 8-7 suited in the first place. So, my response to his problem was that I would fold.
After a long deliberation, Craig did in fact fold his hand. Had he stayed in, he would have completed his straight and tripled up, as the button moved all in with A-K, losing to the big blind's flopped set of sixes.
A few rounds later, he had succeeded in building his chips back up to about $20,000, when he picked up pocket aces and went broke, all in before the flop against pocket nines. Oh, well, such is this great game of poker.
Mark Gregorich has played poker professionally in Las Vegas since 1995. He is regarded as one of the top Omaha eight-or-better players in the world, and contributed to that section in Doyle Brunson's Super System II. Mark is primarily a cash-game player, but occasionally tosses some dead money into the prize pools of major tournaments.
