Poker fiction and poker movies contain a lot of unusual hands. Even most of the real poker shown on TV consists of a few very exciting hands. The ordinary hands are edited out. (
Poker After Dark is the one of the few exceptions. There, almost every hand played is shown.) Many viewers may end up thinking that poker is all about spectacular hands. Huge bluffs and against-the-odds drawouts do occur in real life, but the vast majority of hands are relatively routine. Even the routine hands can be interesting, especially when there are a lot of close decisions to be made. I am going to start this column with a fairly routine decision in a routine hand.
It occurred shortly after the end of the
World Series of Poker in a cash no-limit hold'em game at Bellagio. The blinds were $100-$200, and I had one of the shorter stacks with a little more than $10,000. I was in the big blind. Everyone folded to Jeff Lisandro in the cutoff position (the player just to the right of the button.) You probably have seen Jeff on TV, but in any case, he is a tough, aggressive player who has been extremely successful in both cash games and tournaments for the past few years. He made a normal raise to $600. The button, who was someone I didn't know, but seemed competent, called. The small blind folded. I looked down to see an ordinary hand: K
J
. I can make a case for folding, calling, or raising. Now, I want you to give this some serious thought. Then, answer these questions:
1. What are the arguments for each of these choices?
2. How would you rank the three choices, and are any close?
3. Would your ranking be different if the button hadn't called.
4. Would your ranking be different if everyone's stack was $50,000?
1. Factors that favor folding: It is bad to put in more money with a very marginal hand in poor position against good players. K-J may be dominated by either one of their hands or by the combination of both. I am in bad shape against A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K, A-J, and K-Q.
Factors that favor calling: My call closes the betting for this round. I am getting a good price. It costs $400 more to win the $1,500 already in the pot. If we don't consider additional betting, those odds of almost 4-1 mean that I need to win only 25 percent of the time to show a reasonable profit. There is also a long-term reason for calling in close situations. I want to be perceived as a defender of my blinds, which will make people less likely to try to steal them.
Factors that favor raising: Jeff's late-position raise may be a bluff or semibluff with a hand like J-10 suited. The caller probably is not too strong or he would have reraised. In fact, there is a very good chance they'll both fold to a big reraise. If I get called, I still might win, and in any case, I'll be shown to be an almost maniacal defender of my blinds.
2. I rate folding as the best play, followed by raising, and last, calling. But I think the choices are very close. If I thought Jeff could be easily intimidated, raising clearly would be the best play. Even calling makes sense, especially since it is early in the session, and I do not want to create a weak, pushover image.
3. If the button hadn't called, my pot odds would be much worse, but my chance of being in a good situation would be much better. Jeff's late-position raise might be a complete bluff or semibluff, but the caller has to have some values. Without the caller, folding becomes the worst play, and calling or even raising becomes clearly superior.
4. With a very large stack, folding becomes clear. I am out of position with a hand that probably has negative implied odds. I really won't know what to do if a king or jack hits on the flop. The second choice with a big stack is to raise. At least my big stack may intimidate them into folding some of the hands that are big favorites against my hand, like A-J or K-Q. They may call with small pairs or suited connectors, hoping to trap me for a big pot, but most of the time those hands will miss and they'll fold to my bet on the flop.
I am embarrassed to say that I made what I rate as the worst choice: I actually called. In Part II, I'll discuss what happened next.
Steve "Zee" Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on Full Tilt, as one of its pros. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A - Nice Guy Eddie's on Houston and Doc Holliday's on 9th Street - in New York City.
