The All Blacks have sent out a very clear signal to their
Rugby World Cup challengers, but can they reach the touchline before they drop the ball?
The 25th day of June 2005; 8:12 a.m. BST: As Brian O'Driscoll's shoulder makes jarring contact with the cold, wet, damp Christchurch turf, the entire rugby union world experiences a mild tremor. As Keven Mealamu and Tana Umaga dumped the Lions captain onto the floor, causing the injury that would ultimately end his tour, the All Blacks sounded a warning that will echo across France throughout October 2007: This All Black team will win the
World Cup no matter what it takes. What followed were three tests played with intensity, passion, and skill that demonstrated that the latest version of the All Blacks was on a collision course with a destiny that will come in the Stade de France, Paris, on Oct. 20.
Mealamu and Umaga may not have intended to put the Lions captain out of action for the remainder of the tour, but the symbolism was unmistakable. The Northern Hemisphere's most mercurial talent and pre-eminent player had crossed paths with the black whirlwind and come out of it shattered and very much second best. Even at that point, more than two years before the
World Cup, the All Blacks seemed determined to display that they were prepared to skirt around the legalities of the game in order to get the prize that they rate above all others.
Falling Short
If Brazil enjoys football to the point of hysteria, it's difficult to quantify the passion that New Zealanders have for rugby. Being the force they are in the sport, the All Blacks have sent strong teams with not just genuine hopes of winning the
World Cup, but the ballast of a fanatical nation's aspirations on their shoulders.
One
World Cup win in five attempts and none since the inaugural tournament in 1987 just isn't enough for the most demanding supporters in the sport. New Zealand teams are expected to win, and win in style. Too often, they have provided the style but fallen short of the major victories they deserved. When it comes to the
World Cup crunch, the All Blacks have been found to have a soft centre, and what Mealamu and Umaga ended up saying was akin to "this time it'll be different."
The bare stats mask the disappointment that New Zealand has experienced at the
World Cup. In its history, the team managed a win rate of about 74 percent in all test matches. In
World Cup games alone, that percentage jumps up to just under 80 percent, with the All Blacks winning 27 of the 31 games they have contested at the tournament. They have reached the semifinals in each of the five
World Cups, but it's the fact that they haven't gone all the way that rankles among the fans. Everyone knows the players have the talent, but at the vital moments have lacked the mental strength to deliver.
Leading the Pack
The expectation is immense. Team captain Richie McCaw came in for criticism during the recent
Tri Nations Series. Even at the age of 26, McCaw can be considered one of the great All Black flankers, yet the media had no qualms attacking the player for what were seen as performances well below the standards that the public expects.
It's worth noting that New Zealand still won the tournament by a comfortable four points, but the perception was that displays were worryingly off colour for a team that should be coming to a boil rather than falling away from the peaks they are capable of. Other teams, particularly South Africa, Australia, and France, have been building toward a crescendo they hope will peak in October, and maybe some of their less flattering results can be attributed to experimentation.
The strength in depth of the All Blacks is remarkable. The Lions Tour of 2005 illustrated that they had enough class within their ranks to field two different teams and not suffer any drop-off in performance. They will have by far the strongest squad at the tournament, and obviously this is a wonderful luxury. The problem is that you can field only 15 players at any given time, and the difference between the All Blacks and their closest rivals is less pronounced among their starting lineups than the entire squad. Australia, South Africa, and even a second-string South Africa gave the All Blacks trouble in recent months, and in the knockout stages of the
World Cup, there is no margin for error.
White's Against the Blacks
One of the most vocal critics of the All Blacks has been Jake White, coach of South Africa. White has openly declared that New Zealand will struggle if it persists with the gung-ho attacking style that Graham Henry insists he will employ. While White has been known to get under the skin of opponents, he may have a point. His Springboks play a more circumspect game than some of their rivals, but they operate with an efficiency that makes them a genuinely interesting prospect.
Historically, they enjoy the best record of any international side against the All Blacks, with a success rate of 40 percent (55 percent of the games were won by New Zealand, with the remaining 5 percent ending in stalemate). They may lack the talent of the All Blacks in many areas of the field, but as England showed in 2003, a disciplined tactical game mixed with occasional moments of inspiration could be the way to
World Cup glory. The Boks seem to fit this prototype neatly.
With Bryan Habana, they have a devastatingly quick player who can capitalise on the platform that the rugged South Africa forwards will doubtless provide, and 11-2 may not be the worst bet for those looking to oppose New Zealand as the tournament winner.
Shakeout in the Scrum
Australia got the better of the All Blacks in the
Tri Nations, and their intense rivalry means there are never more than a handful of points between the two teams. The concern has to be the age of the squad, while the romantics may like to see Stephen Larkham and George Gregan bow out of the Wallabies shirt in the most perfect of ways.
The problem is that over the course of the tournament, they are likely to put in at least one poor performance, and come the knockout stages, that cannot happen. Back in May, a less than full strength Welsh team caused the Aussies real difficulties in Sydney, and this illustrates the inconsistent nature of Australia's performances.
If Australia is to be labelled inconsistent, it is hard to know how to describe the hosts, France. The major thing in their favour is the comfort and fervent support that comes from home advantage, but the major doubt about them is the alarming drop-offs in performance.
They got completely thumped by the All Blacks during the summer, and although a certain amount of this can be attributed to experimentation, some of it is simply down to poor performances from players who are capable of far better.
The fact that they won the
Six Nations rightly implies they are the pick of the European teams, and they should get the better of Ireland in their pool and whatever other members of that group they meet in the knockout phase, but taking on the members of the
Tri Nations could expose their flaws, even with the benefit of home support.
