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Silver a Golden Opportunity
As a poker player, how many flights to America do you take every year? What's your favourite airline? Virgin, British Airways, new kid on the block Maxjet?
Well, take a look at the fledgling airline Silverjet (www.flysilverjet.com) and I'm sure you will agree that it beats its rivals into submission in terms of price and business-class comfort in every seat on its aircraft.
That's right, business class throughout its planes, and not just seats, but seats that convert into 6-foot-3-inch flat beds, meaning no plane carries more than 100 passengers … in comfort.
Look at this little lot of extras, too: private business lounges at the departure airports, online seat selection, online pre-ordered food selection, chauffer-driven ground transportation, on-board "quiet zone" - designed to maximise sleep time - no serving trolleys, no frustrating and unnecessary announcements during the flight, removal of all overhead reading lights and call bells, all food and beverages individually served, a late breakfast to eat on board or take away, a ladies-only restroom, and power points on all seats for laptops.
And now here's the best part, especially if you are someone like poker player Gary Jones, who dyed his hair green for the recent
World Series of Poker Europe in an attempt to encourage people to preserve the environment: The airline is the world's first carbon-neutral airline.
Included in the ticket prices is a carbon-offset contribution, giving customers the opportunity to reinvest "Carbon Points" in a number of climate-friendly projects around the world. The scheme has been set up in partnership with leading climate-change specialist the CarbonNeutral Company, and has been developed in accordance with the CarbonNeutral protocol, the leading standard and quality mark for action on climate change.
All of this for a third of the price offered by its competitors? You would expect the airline to go broke in no time.
However, its business plan is excellent. Recognising that increases in fuel costs or fuel shortages could materially affect operations, for example, it has hedged on fuel costs to limit potential exposure. Its management team is also strong, headed by Chairman Peter Owens, who boasts 21 years at British Airways.
In announcing that it is already running its aircraft at near 70 percent capacity and adding a second daily service to New York, along with a new route to Dubai, the company clearly has a lot to offer. It is amazing progress, considering that its first flight took to the skies in just late January 2007.
Listed on the London Stock Exchange Alternative Investment Market (AIM), Silverjet, like all airlines, experienced a steep drop in market value from the early summer. It reached £2.00 in March, but has slumped below £1.00 recently, which makes it a serious buy, considering things could not be better.
A profit upward of 100 percent, back up and beyond that £2.00 mark within the next six months, is very feasible.
Election Betting
2008 a Brown Year
The merits of very long-range antepost bets can be, and often are, called into question. For example, having your cash tied up in an antepost voucher on Brazil for the 2010
World Cup, getting a price that represents a little value or not, is sheer nonsense to me.
The 2/1 about the next general election being called in 2008 is an exception, however, particularly if adding it into other long-range selections that "mature" in 2008.
Everyone knows that a war is good for an "in-power government" - look at how the Falklands conflict saved Maggie Thatcher in 1983 - but, ironically, it will be Gordon Brown's withdrawal from Iraq that will bolster his already favourable standing in the opinion polls even further. Such a combination will make a 2008 election both safe and irresistible for the 57-year-old Scot, and the price represents real value.
American Football
Colts and Patriots Double?
The
Super Bowl does not really get going until the playoffs, and at that point the New England Patriots and defending champion Indianapolis Colts will once again have shown their superiority over the pack. Naturally, they both cannot make the
Super Bowl, but when you can bet the pair at 5/4, I wouldn't worry about which of the two becomes the champion.
These two doubled together give you odds beyond 11/2.
My Moroccan friend Bobo Mbarga also weighed in this month with his thoughts on American football.
The Falcon Does Not Struggle When it is Caught - Moroccan Proverb
We already have seen almost a third of the NFL season dissipate. This is the time of the season that sharp bettors start making their legitimate picks and are able to start "fading" the poor-performing teams. This means that public opinion inflates the spread when betting a favorite against a team with a losing record, such as the Atlanta Falcons, the St. Louis Rams, the Minnesota Vikings, and other "basement dwellers."
This will increase the value of the spread for the "lesser" team. Like most correct sports-betting techniques, this can seem counterintuitive. But keep in mind that you are going against public opinion, which is almost always a good thing. The public will not usually bet a team that has performed poorly for most or all of the season, so you can expect line movement in your favor and the ever-present possibility that the good team won't be motivated to play what it considers an easy win. This is not an uncommon scenario.
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the teams that are looking almost as bad as their record. They have one win against four losses at the time of writing. The Falcons' starting quarterback was arrested for dog-fighting (which is illegal in the U.S.), and the backup quarterback has the last name Harrington. They have lost two starting tackles on their offensive line, and have 14 other injuries on the team and would almost need the Butcher Basri on defense to instill any type of fear in the opposition. What does this equate to? Fading the Falcons!
As an added bonus, home underdogs have covered the spread an amazing 72 percent of the time over the past three seasons. Home underdogs are also effective for the Sunday night game, but at a slightly lower percentage.
So, my recommendation for the next few weeks is that you look at teams that are all over the shop, such as Minnesota, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Atlanta, and see how often you will cover a spread that you would not ordinarily put a nicker on.
Peace and Respect,
Bobo Mbarga
For the best odds on American Football, visit CardPlayerOdds.com.
Darts
Gerwen the Future King of the Doormat Challenges?
Darts is one of those things that I understand but just don't get; well, I understand the piss-up bit, but therein my knowledge is limited. Anyway, it's clearly a game of skill, and one in which form stands up well. Just take a look at Phil Taylor's incredible record.
But big Phil has gone on a diet and become a healthier, thinner version of himself, which has coincided with a dramatic loss of form. In fact, he's not the only one to have forgotten how to throw a small arrow into a circular doormat, and recent events have been claimed by an array of underdogs.
Possibly, it is time for a new dominant force to step forward, and I can tell you that promoter Barry Hearn - who knows a thing or two about darts, snooker, ten-pin bowling, fishing, and so on - reckons Dutch teenager Michael Van Gerwen is the man.
Gerwen has, at some stage or other, already beaten pretty much everyone put before him, although an outright title has yet to go his way. Therefore, backing him for all of the forthcoming events at double-digit prices for small and increasing stakes could and should ultimately prove profitable.
For the best odds on Darts, visit CardPlayerOdds.com.
Financials
Some of our favorite bets ever reside on Betfair.com: the financial bets market. Of special interest are the interest rates markets. Carefully considered, they offer some of the surest bets out there. But first, it is prudent to learn about the actors in this financial theater.
A central bank, reserve bank, or monetary authority is an entity responsible for monetary policy of its country or a group of member states. Its primary responsibility is to maintain the stability of the national currency and money supply. The primary tool in its arsenal is the ability to set the prime rate, or the rate from which all other banking loan rates originate. Deciding on what this prime rate should be, given the current economic situation, is the dilemma that faces the bank monthly.
Given the tremendous impact that this prime rate has on every aspect of the economic welfare of any given country or group of countries, it is not in the central bank's interest to surprise and startle the world financial markets with unexpected decisions. Doing so would go against the economic stability that is the bank's prime directive. As such, the banks, without being obvious, subtly telegraph their stance and their decision preference in press conferences and other media spectacles.
Our three banks of choice are the United States' own Fed (FOMC), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (MPC). These are the most liquid markets on Betfair, and very closely mimic the actual probability of a rate decision. A careful study of Google news stories on the bank rate topic, a few days before the decision, is enough due diligence to get you in the know.
Some tips from the pros: When the Betfair rate is 1.10 or less, it's pretty certain that the event is happening; 1.11 and higher requires caution. For the Bank of England, make sure you know how the "shadow" MPC (who meets under the auspices of the Institute of Economic Affairs a week before the decision) is voting. If their vote is counter to market expectations, stay away from the bet, or punt against the grain. In the past, the shadow "MPC" has provided some very profitable upsets.
