Playing Favorites

When the money goes in the middle, of course you'd like to be a favorite - better yet, a big favorite - but that's not the nature of hold'em. Granted, the biggest mismatch, overpair versus random undercards, wins about nine times out of 10, but most of your other edges are really rather slim. The well-known "coin flip," an underpair versus overcards, favors the underpair to the tune of 55 percent to 45 percent, which means that while you're a favorite, you're not a huge favorite; in the long run, you're not going to win much more often than you lose.

Still, if you had your choice between playing favorites and playing underdogs, you'd gladly choose the favorites. Heck, if I could get 55 percent return on an even-money bet, I'd take it a million times over and retire rich. In the long run, in other words, a favorite is a favorite, and will show appropriate profit. But let's pause to consider the psychological impact of losing coin flips. What happens when you're a favorite but the flip doesn't go your way? If your pocket jacks get cracked by your foe's river ace or king, and you go all tilty and start to rage against the awful unfairness of it all, you haven't lost just a coin flip, you've lost your composure and discipline, and will likely lose your stack.

Recognize, then, that favorites, even big favorites, don't come with moral entitlement; they don't "deserve" to win. Just because your hand is rated to win, say, three times out of four (like pocket aces are rated to beat lower suited connectors), there's no guarantee that this time will be one of those times. If a garden-variety bad beat leads you to conclude that the universe hates you, you're doomed. But if you recognize that you probably weren't that big a favorite to begin with, you can learn to take your (not-so) bad beats in stride. It will be instructive, then, to study and memorize the rough odds of some common hold'em confrontations.

(Props, by the way, to the odds calculator at www.CardPlayer.com for the numbers crunched below. If you're not aware of this marvelous resource, make yourself aware. It's money, honey.)

Classic Coin Flip: The classic coin flip, an underpair versus overcards, can favor the underpair by as much as 55 percent (as when the overcards have no straight or flush possibilities). Since an underpair versus overcard suited connectors (such as the 5 5 versus the 10 9) can actually be trailing (the 10 9 wins about 52 percent of the time), don't be so smugly certain that your underpair is always a favorite.

Tweeners: A tweener is a hand containing two cards between an opponent's higher and lower holdings - for example, 9-8 versus A-6. In this case, the top hand beats the tweener between about 52 percent and 57 percent of the time, depending on the suitedness and connectedness of the tweener. Many hold'em players consider that ace to put them well ahead of a tweener. Many hold'em players are, functionally, wrong.

Tweener Pairs: When an underpair is a slight favorite against unpaired overcards, a tweener pair, facing just one overcard, rates to win as much as two-thirds of the time, and even as much as 71 percent, as in the case of the 7 7 versus the 9 3 - though how you'd get someone to give you action with that nasty 9-3 is a bit beyond me. But if you can get calls from, say, bad aces, your tweener pair stands to do quite well.

Overdog: An overdog hand is one like Q-8 against 10-6, where each of your cards is individually higher than each of your foe's. You have him doubly dominated, but you're not as big a favorite as you might imagine yourself to be. The overdog wins about 60 percent of the time. That's why so many all-in jocks are happy to discover that their two paltry cards are at least "live."

Double overdog: A double overdog, where both of your cards are higher than both of your foe's, can be as much as a 65 percent favorite - but not always. When you table your A-Q and find that you're up against a sloppy J-9 suited, you might think you're in boss command, but four times out of 10, the underdog will take it down.

Unsuitables: Unsuitables - unsuited connectors - going up against a single overcard figure to prevail only about 45 percent of the time. And don't get too excited if your connectors are s00ted, because suitedness typically adds only 3 percent of value - not enough to make you a favorite here.

The bottom line across this range of hands is that no matter which side of the coin flip you're on, it's still just a coin flip, and you can't afford to take the gamble when the situation is not right. For example, even with the relatively big edge of a tweener pair, you'd be hard-pressed to find the logic of putting your tournament life on the line early in a big multitable tournament. While you might double up (at a time in the tournament when doubling up is of debatable long-term value), fully three times out of 10, you'll be slapped right to the rail. So: modest upside versus catastrophic downside; you be the judge. Then there's the matter of tilt. As outlined above, if your equanimity is at stake - if you lose your cool when you lose - coin flips, in all their splendid variety, are simply not for you.

This whole discussion is designed to put the notion of "playing favorites" in proper perspective. It's not that you should avoid betting with the best of it - that's still the heart and soul of poker. Rather, it's that you should be aware of how slim your edge can sometimes be, and never confuse ahead with a lock. To that end, I've prepared a little table of the matchups I've discussed.



I recommend that you photocopy it, laminate it in plastic, and carry it with you to study at odd moments, so it will always be there to remind you, with appropriate tranquility, that most hold'em edges are just not that huge.

John Vorhaus is the author of the Killer Poker series of books. He resides in cyberspace at www.vorza.com.