Bet or Check a 12-Out Hand?

Back when I was actually working for a living, I took a series of management courses. I remember bristling at the simplicity of the examples used to illustrate complex subjects. It was annoying how often the course designers took the easy way out.

For example, if the topic was goal-setting, they usually discussed salesmen. "You sold X widgets this year; your goal for next year is X plus 10 percent." OK, but it's easy to set goals for salesmen. How about patent attorneys, or microprogrammers, or guys who hire advertising agencies?

I promised myself that when writing a management book, I would attack the tough subjects and the hard examples. I ended up writing a poker book, instead, but I intentionally selected marginal examples to illustrate my points. I wanted readers to see illustrations near the edge.

Several examples have been discussed on Internet forums, with quite knowledgeable people disagreeing with my answers. One is particularly interesting, and I want to analyze it more thoroughly than I did in my book. It's on Page 136 of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, in the chapter titled "Post-Flop Planning."

What the book says: You hold the 9 7 in late position and call two middle-position limpers. Both blinds play. The flop is A 8 5, giving you a flush draw and a gutshot-straight draw. Everyone checks to you. Against average players, you want to bet, hoping that either everyone folds, two or more people call, or, if you miss your draw, you'll get a free card on the turn. If there are some tricky or aggressive players in the hand, check and take the free card now while it's offered. You do not want to get check-raised and bet into on the turn, especially if the check-raise comes from one of the blinds and knocks out the remaining players.

I have included this example for another reason. If you bet, you will probably come out fine, as there are only a few ways for the hand to go badly. You have 12 outs, and will be happy if you get two callers, or can get a free card on the turn. But even though it will work most of the time, you would still be "gambling" that the few unfortunate things (getting check-raised and going heads up, getting check-raised and three-bet, having someone bet the turn) will not happen. Clearly, you need to improve to win. Take the free card now. You may even get another one.

The case for betting: Many players believe that betting is automatic because:

1. You will make your hand 48.2 percent of the time. Thus, if you get check-raised and bet into (the worst case), and have only one opponent, you are still almost even money to win the hand.

2. The pot contains five and a half small bets. Any chance that everyone will fold more than compensates for the tiny equity that's potentially lost by betting.

3. If you are raised and get two or more opponents, you gain expected value because you will win almost 50 percent of the time.

These are certainly compelling agreements for betting. They are particularly compelling because this is seen as a 12-out hand, which will apparently win almost half the time. If there were only eight outs, most players would agree that checking the flop would be more reasonable.

The case for checking: Nevertheless, there are issues that must be considered:

• Why play differently against aggressive or tricky opponents?
• Is it really a 12-out hand?
• Would you make a free-card play?
• How will the hand and session play out?

Why play differently against aggressive or tricky opponents? These opponents will have little respect for a bet by the button on an ace-high board when there was no raise preflop. They not only will assume (correctly) that you are trying to steal, but will have the ability and inclination to play back, check-raising with many hands to try to take control of the pot. The blinds are particularly likely to see the bet as an opportunity to eliminate the other players, represent an ace, and take the pot away from you on the turn or river. Thus, you will often see the pathological case, in which you are check-raised, playing against one opponent, and bet into on the turn, and rarely if ever will have everyone meekly fold to your semibluff. That is why the example distinguishes between average opponents and aggressive or tricky ones.

Is it really a 12-out hand? Well, 12 cards will make your hand, but only a 6 will make the nuts. Even if the turn is a spade, you may be beaten already, and certainly are vulnerable to redraws. This is far different from having the K Q with an A 10 5 flop. Then, all of your 12 outs would be for the nuts (and you should always bet). Although you will make your hand 48 percent of the time, you will not win the hand nearly as often, because of better draws and redraws.

Would you make a free-card play? If, say, the big blind had bet and the two limpers had folded, many players would raise here for a free card. Making this play costs a full bet now but saves a half-bet on the turn, when you (hopefully) get checked to. Well, since no one has bet, checking saves a half-bet now and gives you a free draw. Since you cannot win without improving (against savvy opponents), taking the free card provides infinite odds for making your hand.

How will the hand and session play out? If you check, the turn card will make your hand almost one-fourth of the time. Aggressive or tricky players will bet the turn, hoping to steal the pot, even without a hand. You can raise, making them far more leery of future steals on the turn when you check from the button, which is much to your advantage. Plus, if the bettor has a hand, he will not give you credit for a holding as strong as the one you made, because most players would bet strong draws on the flop. Thus, even excellent card readers pay you off frequently when you do make your hand. They will become confused, helping you in the future.

Conclusion: Certainly, this is a marginal example with a compelling case for betting. If the hand were any stronger, betting would be automatic, and if it were much weaker, checking would be clearer. You won't lose much lifetime earnings by ignoring my advice and betting every time in this situation. But, situationally checking against players who read hands well, diagnose situations, and have the heart to take advantage of them will give you other advantages, save you money when you miss, frequently make you extra money when you make your hand, and perhaps gain you some free cards later in the session.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].