The MAW Bet

The "might-as-well bet" situation occurs when you are pot-committed - usually because most of your chips are already in the pot. For example, you have been lead-betting with the nut straight in pot-limit Omaha and have already put most of your chips into the pot. But then, oops, the last card either pairs the board (a possible full house) or is the third card of a suit that makes a flush possible. If your opponent has made a full house or a flush, he will most certainly bet, and because of the pot size, you will be obliged to call with your remaining chips, just in case he is bluffing or erroneously betting a worse hand than yours. Thus, if your opponent has hit, you will lose your remaining chips anyway, so you "might as well bet" those chips, just in case your opponent has not hit and chooses to call.

I recently encountered an interesting MAW-bet situation when I was playing at the final table of a large pot-limit Omaha high tournament (we were already "in the money"). With seven players remaining, in my 6,000 big blind, I picked up the K 10 9 8. After three folds, a very aggressive player raised it to 15,000, and everyone folded around to me. I had about 50,000 in chips and chose to call the extra 9,000. The flop came Q 7 6. Thus, I had flopped a flush draw and a 13-out straight draw (although three of those straight cards were clubs). Based on what I had previously seen, if I checked to this very aggressive preflop raiser, it would be extremely likely that he would make a large bet. So, what would you do in this situation?

Answer: You might as well bet. Note that with 19 outs to make a flush or straight (nine clubs plus 10 straight cards) and two cards coming, I was about 68 percent likely to hit either the flush or the straight and probably win the pot. So, I was not about to fold any bet, however large. But, as long as I was essentially pot-committed, I might as well (MAW) make a bet here and see if my opponent might be coaxed into folding. I would certainly rather grab the 33,000 in the pot without a contest than risk losing all of my chips if I didn't hit.

So, assuming that you have also decided to bet here (instead of check), the question then becomes how much to bet. There is some argument for trying the small-bet teaser approach, otherwise known as the bargain-basement bet (BBB), which, if unraised, would enable you to see the next card at a "discount." By betting a small amount, sometimes depicted as a "left jab," you grab the initiative and proclaim to your opponent (who raised before the flop) that you are hereby competing for this pot and are essentially daring him to raise you. Alternatively, a small bet can be viewed as an offer of tribute, hoping to appease the appetite of the mighty preflop raiser. Once upon a time, a small Roman town sent out tribute to an advancing barbarian army. Sensing weakness, the barbarians charged through the open gates of the little town - and were annihilated by the legions waiting on the walls.

However, in this situation, even if your BBB (bargain-basement bet) is just called by the preflop raiser, what about the sequel? Looking ahead, everything would be fine if you hit your hand on the turn (then, you could follow through with a big bet). But if you miss on the the turn, you will be in a negative position. And although you are a favorite to hit your hand with two cards coming, you are more likely to miss (about 58 percent of the time) one of your 19 cards on the turn. At that point, you would be an underdog to hit your hand on the last card. If you try to save money by checking after you miss on the turn, this opponent will probably bet, and you will end up putting in your chips anyway, since you figure to win roughly 40 percent of the time.

Thus, looking at the big picture, it seemed clear that a small bet would not accomplish much with this opponent, so I might as well (MAW) bet the whole pot here and apply maximum pressure. If he folds, I will take the 33,000 in chips without further risk. If he calls, I will win the 99,000 pot about 70 percent of the time. Of course, I will lose and be eliminated about 30 percent of the time - but that is probably what would happen anyway if I checked and called his next two bets.
So, I bet the pot, 33,000. He thought for about a minute, then folded. Although I actually might have made more money (roughly 70 percent of the time) by checking and slugging it out with him, it was clearly safer and wiser to grab the pot uncontested. A bird in the hand is worth two on the river.

Formerly a career lawyer with the U.S. Department of Justice, Mike Cappelletti has written numerous books on poker and bridge, and is considered to be one of the leading authorities on Omaha. Mike has also represented the U.S. in international bridge competition, and he and his wife were featured in a four-page Couples Section in People magazine. His books include Cappelletti on Omaha, Poker at the Millennium (with Mike Caro), and Omaha High Low Poker.