One, Two … Testing, Testing

More than any other sport enjoyed by the British public, cricket lends itself to the use of statistical analysis. Batting averages, bowling figures, wagon-wheels, and area charts are poured over in minute detail in an attempt to understand performances. From behind glowing laptop screens, captains and coaches alike use rafts of statistics to identify and exploit possible weaknesses in opponents.

With the sport relies so heavily on numbers, it's ironic that the first thing to look at when examining England's chances of victory in the tours of New Zealand and the West Indies is the rather subjective and intangible concept of attitude. Although there is no shame in going to Sri Lanka and coming away with a 1-0 test-series defeat, the general consensus was that England was lucky not to end up further adrift of their hosts. It was the inclement weather as opposed to England's performances that was the major factor in keeping them in touch, and come the end of the series, this fact was recognised by the normally blindly partisan "Barmy Army." Lethargic displays and poor body language left the public with the distinct impression that the English players had little interest in being there, resulting in their own fans booing for what was seen as a lack of effort and application from a group of talented players who should be more competitive.

Home and Away
Although not a trait of the team historically, it would appear that England is developing into poor tourists. Steve Harmison's battles with homesickness have been well-documented, and it would appear that a couple of other players within the setup also struggle when away from friends and family for any great length of time. As last year's World Cup demonstrated, this unhappiness can manifest itself in indiscipline both on and off the pitch.

At the best of times, winning test matches away from home is difficult. With the possible exception of Australia and any team touring Bangladesh, away victories are extremely hard to come by at test level. For example, since the year 2000, England has played 47 away test matches, winning 14 of them, drawing 14, and losing 19. Ignoring the skill levels of their opponents and local weather factors, and - incorporating bookmakers' margin - that equates to odds of around 2/1 for England to win any test match on foreign soil and 1/3 for them not to - that is to draw or lose.

It shows that to get any success out of the tour to New Zealand, England will have its work cut out. Although it lacks the resonance and romanticism of a victory over Australia or India, beating the "Black Caps" on their own patch would be a substantial achievement for this group of players. New Zealand is a well-balanced outfit with a steady batting lineup and a formidable bowling attack. Although not the most spectacular of teams, they perform consistently and are well capable of competing with any other team in the world. That's the very reason why a bet on the test series isn't appealing. Their dependability means that the bookies should be able to price things up with confidence.

The only major question to be answered is, which England will we see? We know they have talent within their ranks, and conditions in New Zealand will resemble home more than previous venues on the winter tour. Similarities in culture should reduce the effects of homesickness, and we can expect to see a happier England than we have in recent months. All in all, the oddsmakers should find little in the way of surprises, and as the saying goes, when the prices look right, it's probably best to abstain.

Full of Western Promise
In complete contrast to the relative certainties of New Zealand, the tour of the Caribbean contains a myriad of doubts, mainly involving the hosts - making pricing it up difficult for the layers. One of the main quandaries is, how can this poor West Indies side on paper go over to South Africa and put in some remarkable performances? It's difficult to know what to make of them, and consequently there should be a bit of value for the punter who can spot trends and signposts that may be overlooked.

What we know is, the West Indies is a waning force in the world game, particularly the test arena. Since the retirement of Ambrose, Walsh, and, more recently, Lara, the team has been in decline. Its bowling attack frequently looks toothless, and too many of its top order fail to perform regularly. If it wasn't for the remarkable consistency of Shivnarine Chanderpaul, things would be worse. Sporadic displays of shot-making from Chris Gayle have also helped to paper over the cracks, but essentially this is a poor team reliant on a couple of high-class performers. To illustrate this fact, of the West Indies' top six, Chanderpaul averages a very healthy total of 46.75 in test cricket as opposed to the combined average of the five other batsmen of 30.76. Only Gayle, with his 38.5, can claim to be anywhere near the same ballpark as Chanderpaul in terms of contribution with the bat.

Over recent years, the English coaching setup has placed an emphasis on analyzing opponents and working out a game plan to expose the weakest elements of key opponents' batting technique. They will fancy that they can stifle Messrs Chanderpaul and Gayle, and in doing so take a big step toward victory.

Bowled Over
Although never blazingly quick bowlers, one of the strengths of the aforementioned Ambrose and Walsh was the trajectory of their bowling. They delivered the ball from a height that derived bounce from Caribbean wickets, resulting in batsmen being on the receiving end of some particularly venomous bowling. Ironically, with tall bowlers such as Steve Harmison, Stuart Broad, and possibly Andrew Flintoff, England is now better placed to utilise this traditionally West Indian tactic than its hosts.

Done well, the use of the short ball on Caribbean wickets can at the very least create doubt in a batsman's mind, and in certain cases invoke a genuine fear for personal safety. Certainly, the names of Daren Powell (bowling average 42.46), Fidel Edwards (42.53), and Dwayne Bravo (40.78) are unlikely to cause panic among England's top order.

With regard to betting, taking Alistair Cook to be the top English series run scorer is a must, with a bet on him to be the top series run scorer overall also looking tempting. When a new player bursts onto the scene, it's important not just to note his stroke-making, but, more importantly, his attitude. Since making his debut, Cook has looked nothing other than conscientious, diligent, and responsible in his quest to score runs for his team.

Cook has amassed runs at a rate that compares favourably with the greats of the game at a similar age, and perhaps most reassuringly, he has performed extremely well while touring some of the more difficult venues in cricket. His overall test average is around the 45 mark, but this rises to 51 when he has played in Asia in the cauldrons of India and Sri Lanka. His style should be well-suited to the type of bowling he will face in the Caribbean, and considering his main rivals for England's top run scorer honours will be Pietersen and Bell, who haven't been at the top of their game in recent months, Cook looks like a standout value. Likewise, in the overall market, Chanderpaul may be his main obstacle, but if England gets the game plan right, Cook could be the one to benefit directly.